Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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717
FNUS72 KILM 021737
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMP 1V 2...NCWRC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1237 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1250 EST ON FEBRUARY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL RETURN NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IN
THE PLAINS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A STRONG
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST KEEPING
CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
MAX ADI.............16.
MAX LVORI...........3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10465 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............34  48  46  45  43  49
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................63  64  63  64  62  60
RH..................64  62  66  63  67  71
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10
LVORI...............3   2   2   2   3   3
ADI.................13  13  15  16  14  10
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...10  14  15  15  15  14

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH.
MAX ADI.............4.
MAX LVORI...........8.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (575 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............54     44     53     61     69     76
WEATHER COV.........                            PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57     54     53     52     52     54
RH..................77     82     84     92     97     95
20 FT WIND..........E 5    E 5    E 4    E 3    E 3    SE 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     5      5      5      5
LVORI...............4      5      5      7      8      7
ADI.................4      3      2      1      1      2
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...10     1      1      1      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 26 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX ADI.............47.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1150-51864 MPH-FT).

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............61     58     70     82     90     93
WEATHER COV.........PATCHY        S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........FOG    NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................57     62     67     74     74     71
RH..................87     80     71     61     64     75
20 FT WIND..........SE 5   S 6    S 8    S 10   S 10   S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     15     15     15     15
LVORI...............6      4      3      1      1      3
ADI.................4      10     27     39     47     43
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      5      19     36     52     43

$$
FORECASTER...BACON
REQUESTED BY...KEN SHUGHART
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160202.SMP1V.01/ILM



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