Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FNUS73 KJKL 281657
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR ADDISON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
1157 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1400 EST ON NOVEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE
RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 44 TO 46 PERCENT
AROUND THE REQUEST TIME...AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN THEN WILL BE THE WINDS. GENERALLY
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS AT THE BURN SITE WILL BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH BETWEEN
8PM AND MIDNIGHT. JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS OVER...WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERTAKE THE BURN SITE
FROM AROUND 10PM THROUGH JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL. AROUND 0.60 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS
LOCATION WITH THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL. ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN WILL
COME THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...AT REQUEST TIME...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 3PM
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT REQUEST...MAX 63.
RH..................46 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 44 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............42.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 30 TO 33 MPH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT /72700 KNOT-FT/ AT REQUEST.
                    MAX...EXCELLENT /104100 KNOT-FT/.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................69 INCREASING TO 84 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT REQUEST...MAX 2.

TIME (EST)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
CCH OF PCPN (%).20  30  30  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1
TEMP............62  62  62  61
DEWPOINT........41  41  42  43
RH..............46  46  48  51
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  30  30
RIDGE WIND DIR..S   S   S   S
RIDGE WIND SPD..15  15  15  15
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.30  32  33  33
LVORI...........1   1   1   1
ADI.............69  80  87  86
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/100073  92  104 101

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 50.
RH..................MAX 94 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............45 INCREASING TO 50 LATE IN THE EVENING.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 MPH...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 25 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 33 TO 38 MPH INCREASING TO 36 TO 43 MPH
                    LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 17 TO
                    26 MPH BY MIDNIGHT...DECREASING TO 7 TO 12 MPH BY 4 AM.
VENT RATE...........GOOD TO EXCELLENT (50600-94500 KNOT-FT)
                    DECREASING TO POOR TO GOOD (3800-32000 KNOT-FT)
                    LATE.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................49 INCREASING TO 53 LATE IN THE EVENING...AROUND 8PM
                    ...THEN DECREASING TO 35 BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED
                    DECREASE TO 9 THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........100    100    100    97     88     62
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD NUMRUS WIDSPD WIDSPD NUMRUS ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........              ISOLTD ISOLTD
CCH OF PCPN (%).50     60     90     90     70     20
LAL.............1      1      2      2      1      1
TEMP............61     61     62     60     56     56
DEWPOINT........43     45     47     50     52     51
RH..............51     56     58     69     86     83
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 11   S 14   S 9    SW 5   S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.30     30     40     25     10     10
RIDGETOP WIND...S 15   S 20   S 20   S 15   SW 10  S 5
TRANSPORT WIND..S 33   S 38   S 43   S 26   S 12   S 7
LVORI...........1      1      1      3      4      5
ADI.............45     52     57     35     13     5
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      2      2      3
VRATE KT-FT/100092     95     90     51     18     4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69.
RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............50.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........POOR TO GOOD (4600-37700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (66600-116400 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................11 INCREASING TO 49 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 74 BY NOON...AND 104 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH...TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........54     50     48     35     32     35
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
CCH OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............54     53     59     63     68     69
DEWPOINT........50     51     52     50     48     48
RH..............86     93     78     62     49     47
20 FT WIND......S 3    S 3    S 4    SW 6   SW 6   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     15     15     10
RIDGETOP WIND...S 5    S 5    S 5    SW 10  SW 10  SW 10
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8    S 10   SW 14  SW 21  SW 25  SW 24
LVORI...........5      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............8      13     33     74     100    104
HAINES INDEX....3      4      5      4      4      3
VRATE KT-FT/10005      9      24     67     101    116

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
LIGHT WINDS.

$$
FORECASTER...JMW
REQUESTED BY...LEIF MEADOWS, IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1603648.1/JKL
.EMAIL KYDBFE5@FS.FED.US



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