Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FNUS73 KLSX 160016
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Rock Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
616 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 CST on February 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Rain north of the fire is expected to move south this evening,
likely moving into the area of the fire between 800 PM and
900 PM.  Current indications are that there will be 2-3 hours
of light to moderate rain between the hours of 900 PM and Midnight.
Southwest wind around 10 mph with higher gusts will diminish
over the next 2 hours, and then turn to the west-northwest between
800 PM and 900 PM.  A cold front will move through the area of
the fire between 1100 PM and Midnight shifting the wind further
to the north-northwest at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts possible.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2400, then No Tstms.
Temperature.........70 at request...Min 34.
RH..................55 percent at request...Max 78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest around 10 mph at request...
                    otherwise wind turning to the north at 8 to 13 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Eye level winds.....Southwest at around 5 mph turning to the north at
                    around 6 mph between 1100 PM and Midnight.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming sunny
                    (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 42.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    early in the morning.
Eye level winds.....North wind around 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....North around 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (8080 m/s-m) at max heating.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 29.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Eye level winds.....Light northeast wind.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Snow likely until
                    late morning. Rain likely late in the morning,
                    then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 47.
RH..................Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Eye level winds.....Light southwest wind.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4890 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$
Forecaster...Carney
Requested by...Charlene Nazarenko
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1802040.0/LSX



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