Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 272200
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AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARLY CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
EXTENDING WELL INTO EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AFFECTING THE STATE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE
SEMI PERMANENT LOW NEAR THE GULF KEPT THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST IN STEADY RAIN. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BERING SEA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EXTENDS
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE POLAR REACHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
BEGINS TO BEND EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THE COMPLEX
PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND EASTERN RUSSIA REMAINS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING AROUND THE GULF
LOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT MODELS HAVE
ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING THEN QUICKLY SLIDES DOWN THE
WESTERN MAINLAND MONDAY. A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE HAZARDS OUTLOOK HAD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY
TO SWING AROUND THE LOW IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN. CURRENT
MODELS RUNS ARE KEYING IN ON THIS AS WELL.  AS IS WHAT ALWAYS SEEMS
THE CASE... THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND UPPER YUKON IS NOT FAR BEHIND
IN RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THESE TYPE SYSTEMS AND
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL FREEZING LEVEL WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST WITH VALUES ABOVE 10000 FT (NOME AT 10700 FT AND
BETHEL 9900 FT). OTHERWISE VALUES STATEWIDE WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
AND BETWEEN 5400 FT AT FAIRBANKS AND 7800 FT AT ANNETTE.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   2.55
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   2.33
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   1.89
ALSQ9    ALSEK RIVER ABOVE BA PP RG :   1.69
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :   1.35
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.83
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.80
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RZ :   0.61
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.60
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.60
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RG :   0.60
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RZ :   0.59
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.57
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.51
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   0.50
HOZA2    HODZANA RIVER RAWS   PC RG :   0.49
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :   0.45
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.42
TUGA2    TURNAGAIN PASS SNOTE PC RM :   0.40
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.40
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.40
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PC RG :   0.40
HCSA2    HAINES CUSTOMS       PP RZ :   0.38
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC RM :   0.30
UPPA2    UPPER TSAINA SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.30
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   0.30
SUUA2    SUMMIT LAKE SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.30
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RM :   0.30
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.30
DBA2    COPPER RIVER NR MILL PP RG :   0.30

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH


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