Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
AGUS71 KTAR 231632
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1230 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POWERFUL COASTAL
STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. A HEAVY BAND OF RAINFALL IS
PRESSING WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN NH/VT AND CENTRAL/
WESTERN MA. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
NICE CAPTURING OF THE DEEP OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME AND WRAPPING IT
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONDUIT
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ON EASTERN/COASTAL MAINE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THESE
HEAVY BANDS WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES.
:
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE MAIN PLUME OF WATER PRODUCED 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS (EXCLUDING THE CAPE)
WITH BLUE HILL IN MILTON, MA. REPORTING 5.04 INCHES. THIS HEAVY
RAIN BAND EXTENDED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES
WAS REPORTED.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPERED OFF QUICKLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
:
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD, MASSACHUSETTS NORTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF
MASSACHUSETTS. THE NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT FITCHBURG, MA AND THE
HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN, MA FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED
TO EXCEED FLOOD LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON.
:
MOST FORECASTS FOR RISING RIVER RESPONSES REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL
LEVELS IN THE NERFC REGION. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION
AND RUNOFF MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY
RESPONDING HEADWATER AND SMALLER TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS AT A FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE FOR SUCH BASINS IN
PORTIONS OF MAINE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE SWIFT RIVER AT
ROXBURY, ME AND PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-FOXCROFT, ME FORECAST
LOCATIONS.
:
GENERALLY, SMALL RISING RESPONSES ARE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY ABOVE
ALBANY, NY. OTHER RIVERS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE
TO RECEDE.
:
THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE RIVER RESPONSES ACROSS MUCH OF
MASSACHUSETTS PREDOMINANTLY OVERNIGHT WHERE DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES RANGE AND APPROACHED 5
INCHES LOCALLY. HOWEVER, THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS HAD
AMONG THE DRIEST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RESPONSES AT MANY
FORECAST LOCATIONS THERE WERE DAMPENED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, RIVER LEVELS TRENDED LOWER OR
BEGAN RISING RESPONSES WITH THE DEVELOPING RAINFALL.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.