Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 171731
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014


THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE ALASKA REGION FORECAST AT THE MEDIUM RANGE
IS THAT THE 00Z/17 ECMWF WAS CORRELATED WELL ENOUGH WITH THE
RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS TO PREPOSSESS ITS DETERMINISTIC MASS FIELDS
FOR USE IN THE CURRENT MANUAL BLEND. BEFORE THAT ECMWF RUN, NONE
OF THE RECENT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS WERE STABLE ENOUGH--NOR
SUFFICIENTLY IN SYNC WITH THE MULTI-DAY MEANS--TO FORTIFY THE
STRUCTURE OF THE VARIOUS WAVES CROSSING THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR
THE REGION. THE SHIFT TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF THIS FORECAST
FOCUSES TWO SENSIBLE WEATHER PREDICTIONS. FIRST, WITH THE BIG
SURFACE LOW ACTUALLY CROSSING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE BERING
SEA MID PERIOD, PRECIPITATION, WINDS, AND SEAS ALL GO UP AS
THREATS OVER THE ISLANDS. SECOND, THE REFINEMENT OF THE WAVE TRAIN
ACROSS THE REGION NOW SHUTS OUT THE PANHANDLE FROM SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE INTERIOR LOOKS DRY
AND SEASONABLY CHILLY.


CISCO

$$





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