Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 261645
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1145 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015


WITH THE MASSIVE SPREAD CONTINUING AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, THOUGHT IT
BEST TO STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A SYNOPTIC
GUIDE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MOST OF THE ISSUE IS OVER THE
WATER--BOTH WITH THE WAVE LIFTING INTO THE GULF AND THE NEXT
CYCLONIC SERIES FROM KAMCHATKA ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THE ECENS
MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE NAEFS WITH THE ENERGY
CROSSING BOTH THE BERING AND THE PACIFIC, SO THE BLEND AFFORDED A
MITIGATION OF POTENTIAL TIMING AND PLACEMENT ERRORS. IT IS NOT
CLEAR WHEN--IF AT ALL--A BLOCKING RIDGE MAY REASSERT ITSELF IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE; THIS FLOW IS ABOUT AS OPEN AS ANY AWAY FROM
THE MAINLAND THIS WINTER SEASON.


CISCO

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