Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 241109
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
608 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN 24/06
UTC: POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS A FRONT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA
TO CENTRAL AMERICA. BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST DISPLACES THE POLAR
TROUGH ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREACH THE TRADE WINDS CAP...IT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
WHILE TRIGGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN .15 AND .25 OF AN INCH...WITH
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF .50-.75 OF AN INCH TO CLUSTER ON INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
ON ITS WAKE...STRONG CAP INVERSION WILL SET IN WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS RAPIDLY BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL FAVOR A COOL ADVECTIVE
PATTERN THAT WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM MUGGY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE.

THE STRONG MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...WHILE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION...IF ANY...TO LIMIT TO
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN MID AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

JIMENEZ...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MIRANDA...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

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