Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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189
FXUS02 KWBC 241600
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2017

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 27 2017 - 12Z TUE JAN 31 2017

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND AS A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WEST. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
GULF COAST NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT.  A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DISCREPANCY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN U.S AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATIONARY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE ECMWF PROVIDES A
FASTER SOLUTION WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE.  A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z EC MEAN WITH THE 06Z GEFS
MEAN YIELDS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH
AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC PACKAGE AND SHOULD SERVE AS A GOOD
STARTING POINT FOR DAY 7/TUESDAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
START OFF BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES BUT MILDER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN U.S THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAIN IN THE WEST SHOULD STAY NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KONG

$$





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