Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 060550
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1249 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2016

...SNOW THREAT FOR THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN IN
A RIDGE/TROUGH ORIENTATION ACROSS THE WEST/EAST, THOUGH PUNCTUATED
IN THE PAC NW. RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEFS/ECENS
MEANS WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT. GFS WAS QUICKER THAN THE PACK
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE EXITING WESTERN ATLANTIC SYSTEM.
ACTIVITY WILL BE CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE GREAT
LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AS A COLD UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION, INDUCING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS -- WITH NEW SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DEEPENING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE AND THEN
A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL BRING
IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES BY SATURDAY. THE
WEST WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE DIVIDE.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WEST:  GENERALLY WARM (OR AT LEAST ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES) AND
DRY CONDS AT MOST LOCATIONS -- PLUS 5-15F OR SLIGHTLY GREATER
ANOMALIES. INTERIOR VALLEYS IN NV/UT/CO MAY NOT BREAK THROUGH
LOCAL INVERSIONS TO PARTAKE IN SAID "WARMTH" (RELATIVE). RECORD
HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMA BOTH APPEAR POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION -- ALBEIT LIGHT --
SHOULD PUSH INLAND STARTING WEDNESDAY OVER COASTAL WA/OR AS A
COUPLE WEAKENING FRONTS PUSH ASHORE. MORE APPRECIABLE BUT STILL
MODEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP SHOULD FALL OVER WA/OR FRI INTO SATURDAY.

NORTH/PLAINS/GREAT LAKES: AN EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE UPPER FLOW, WITH DOWNSLOPING AND RELATIVE WARMTH IN MT
TRENDING TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE TROUGHING.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN CONCERT WITH THE CLIPPER PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN
SEVERAL DAYS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

SOUTHEAST: TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE (BY ABOUT 5-15F AND
EVEN 20F EARLY IN THE WEEK) BUT WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.

EAST: THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH
THE TUE-WED SYSTEM. COMPLICATED UPPER/SFC PATTERN EVOLUTION LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND P-TYPE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COLDER WITH TIME, ENHANCED BY THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER IN THE
WEEK.


FRACASSO

$$




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