Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 281219
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
819 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 00Z WED JUL 29 2015 - 00Z WED AUG 05 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING EASES WESTWARD OVER THE 50TH
STATE. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE ENSEMBLES TAKE WHATEVER MAY BE LEFT
FROM CURRENT TD 8E PAST 150W. THE NHC FORECASTS 8E TO BECOME A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND FRI/SAT -- PLEASE
SEE THEIR PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. HOWEVER, ITS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD HAWAI`I. PW PLUME FORECASTS
FROM THE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS LIE ON THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE SPREAD WITH VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 2-2.25
INCHES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND HILO... THOUGH THE GFS
WAS LESS SUSTAINED. MOISTURE SEEMS TO SPLIT, MOSTLY SW OF THE BIG
ISLAND (PER GFS ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS AS WELL), AND THE QPF OUTPUT
WAS MUCH LESS IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES BUT SEEMS UNDERDONE. A WETTER PATTERN
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER AT LEAST THE SE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. MODELS MAY WANT TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM
TOWARD THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED.


FRACASSO

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