Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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540
FXHW01 KWNH 211223
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

VALID 00Z WED FEB 22 2017 - 00Z WED MAR 01 2017

THE BULK OF THE WORK WEEK APPEARS MAINLY DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS, AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDES TOWARD THE STATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING BELOW AN INCH WITHIN THE MEAN
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY COMPONENT. THUS HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR WINDWARD SHOWERS AT BEST.

OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, A FORMING CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL ALLOW A DEEP ANOMALOUS PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE TO GRADUALLY RETURN
NORTH. THE 00Z ECWMF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING THIS MOISTURE
PLUME TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER IN RETURNING
THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD, NOT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BOTTOM
LINE IS SPREAD STILL REMAINS... WHETHER THE ENTIRE CHAIN SEES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OR JUST THE BIG ISLAND TOWARD MAUI
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MUSHER


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