Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 231225
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017

VALID 00Z SUN SEP 24 2017 - 00Z SUN OCT 01 2017

A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT JUST NORTHEAST
OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, BUT THEN SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC NEXT WEEK.  ALSO,
THE INFLUENCE FROM A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS WHILE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND AN UPPER RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN U.S..
DESPITE SOME SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE LATER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT OVER HAWAII
AND CURRENTLY KEEP ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.


GERHARDT


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