Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 291147
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017

VALID 00Z THU MAR 30 2017 - 00Z THU APR 06 2017

WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD UP NEAR ALASKA AND TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN AND
NEAR THE 50TH STATE.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER HAWAI`I FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK FEATURES LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IN THE HORSE LATITUDES,
WITH SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS REMAINING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO.  MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SURFACE LOW
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE
ALASKAN PENINSULA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE IMPLICATIONS FOR
HAWAII WILL BE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT WHICH THEN
DEGENERATES INTO A SHEAR LINE, WHICH WILL BRING SOME INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE BUT OTHERWISE NOT SEEM TO IMPACT THE TRADES
ACROSS THE MAIN ISLANDS. EXPECT A TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD PICK UP STEAM TOWARD THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING MID NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER IN
A SERIES OF DEEP CYCLONES TO THE NORTH ERODES THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK A TOUCH LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD,
NEAR 1".  PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND CONFINED TO MAINLY
WINDWARD/MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ROTH
$$





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