Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 230630
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID JUL 23/0000 UTC THRU JUL 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM AND THE
ECMWF


...MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING THIS SYS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GULF COAST STATES AND INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFF AMONG THE MODELS OVERALL...SO A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED ATTM.


...CLOSED LOW PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURS...
...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z GEM AND 00Z UKMET HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER AND ARE
REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS SOLN REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE PAC NORTHWEST AND ITS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EWD THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS SRN CANADA. THE 00Z NAM BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS/UKMET AND GEM SOLNS. WILL
PREFER A NON-NAM CONSENSUS SOLN ATTM BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS
AND THIS WILL APPLY AS WELL TO THE DETAILS OF THE SFC LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TWD THE
MIDWEST BY THIS WEEKEND.


...BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
BY FRI...
...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

ALL THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT HERE SO WILL PREFER A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE TO RESOLVE THE SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$




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