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FXUS06 KWBC 021934
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 02 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 12 2015

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, WITH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER CALIFORNIA, AND GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NEAR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
MODEL SOLUTIONS. UNCERTAINTY IS ELEVATED TODAY, RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, DUE TO
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BEING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE LONG-TERM MEAN, SO NO
CLEAR SHIFT IN THE HEIGHTS IS READILY APPARENT.

THE 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND CONSISTS MAINLY OF GFS-BASED AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA
BASED MODELS. FOR TODAY, THOSE MODELS HAS HIGHER ANALOG CORRELATION SCORES,
REFLECTING BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HISTORICAL RECORD THEN THE AVERAGE ANALOG
CORRELATION SCORE FOR TODAY`S EUROPEAN CENTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE RESULTANT
PATTERN IN THE 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE MOST PREVALENT FEATURES ARE THE TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS,
TROUGHING NEAR CALIFORNIA, AND THE LACK OF HIGH AMPLITUDE ANOMALIES OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE LACK OF STRONG SIGNALS OVER THE CONUS AS
THE PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR THE AREAS OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST. WEAKLY ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS PREDICTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, AND FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. MEAN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, TROUGHING TO THE
WEST, AND RIDGING TO THE EAST FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA.

TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA, WHILE RIDGING OVER EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE ACTIVE STORM
TRACK, ROOTED IN THE TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA, FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY POOR DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 16 2015

THE AVAILABLE MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH LACK CONTINUITY WITH
YESTERDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.  ADDITIONALLY, A FEW OF THE ANALOG
CORRELATION SCORES FOR TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE EXTREMELY LOW, ALTHOUGH THE
AVERAGE ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE FOR ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS TODAY IS ABOUT
AVERAGE. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS LIKELY TO FEATURE TROUGHING NEAR
THE ALEUTIANS, ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS NEAR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, TROUGHING NEAR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALL OF ALASKA, DUE TO MEAN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR COOL AIR TO
SPILL OUT OF CANADA DUE TO A MEAN TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY. A SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FOR THE SOUTHEAST, FAVORING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE OUTLOOK IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
ANOMALIES AND POOR DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY, SO PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.

THE UNCERTAINTY CARRIES OVER TO THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, WHERE THE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ARE QUITE LOW. THOSE AREAS ARE WHERE THE MEAN
BAROCLINICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST, WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FAVORS BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE TO THE CAROLINAS.  TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY, SO WHILE THE PROBABILITIES
STILL FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION, THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER THAN THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE
INCREASED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF YESTERDAY`S
12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OFFSET BY POOR CONTINUITY AND WEAK ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19790716 - 20060624 - 19560709 - 19720702 - 20070711


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19790715 - 20060623 - 19720702 - 19560709 - 20070708


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 12 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 16 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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