Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 280853
PWSEP4

HURRICANE ULIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
0900 UTC WED SEP 28 2016

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ULIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 135W       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 140W       34 10  24(34)   5(39)   X(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)
15N 140W       50  1   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
15N 140W       64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

20N 140W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)

$$
FORECASTER BERG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.