Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ14 KNHC 311441
PWSEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

10N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)  30(51)   4(55)   X(55)
15N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   1(22)   1(23)
15N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   1(16)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

15N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)

20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)

20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)

BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)

20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

15N 155W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

18N 156W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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