Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 280830
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...VALID 12Z THU MAY 28 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 ENE PVW 35 NNE EHA 35 ENE HLC 15 NW OMA 10 ESE AIO
20 NNE MCI 30 E CFV 10 SE CQB 15 SSE 1F0 10 NNE INJ 15 N 6R9
15 NNE MMPG 55 WSW DRT 50 NNE 6R6 10 NW MAF 40 ENE PVW.


...TX/OK/KS...

A VERY CHALLENGING 24 HRS COMING UP FOR PARTS OF KS SOUTH INTO
SATURATED AREAS OF OK AND TX... AS THREE CURRENT AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALREADY IMPACTING PORTIONS THE
REGION. HEIGHT FALLS FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION IS ANTICIPATED TO
GRADUALLY PRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURS. AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHTS FALLS... THREE AREAS OF SMALL SCALE
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS HAS DEVELOPED AND NOT MUCH OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE NOR HI-RES VERSIONS HAVE MUCH INDICATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS WITH AN
MCV AND PROPAGATING MASS OF CONVECTION SLIDING NORTH AND EAST. WPC
HAS A MPD #0145 OUT FOR THIS AREA AND THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES
TRACK THE VORT LOBE TOWARD IA/NORTHERN MO DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY BUT COULD EXIT THE DEEPEST POOL OF MOISTURE. THE SECOND AREA
IS A CONCENTRATED BATCH OF CONVECTION NEAR THE UPPER RED RIVER
THAT IS BEGINNING TO FORM INTO A STRONG LINE/BOW JUST NORTHWEST OF
SPS. THE HRRR IS INDICATING THIS SQUALL WITH LIKELY IMPRESSIVE
RAIN RATES TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST POTENTIALLY TOWARD THE DFW AREA
BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AND WITH ONGOING VULNERABILITY TO HEAVY
RAINS... THIS BEARS WATCHING. FINALLY INVOF OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR SWRN KS... A NARROW LINE OF BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION IS
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS BUT HI-RES SUITE SUGGEST THIS
RE-DEVELOPING LINE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. NOW
HOW ALL THIS PLAYS OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS AND IMPACTS THE
LARGE SCALE EFFECTS LATER TODAY INTO FRI MORNING IS TO BE
DETERMINED BUT WPC WILL PLACE A RATHER LARGE SLIGHT THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM THE BIG BEND OF TX TO EAST CENTRAL KS AS ANY
INTENSE RAIN RATES COULD JUST EXACERBATE THE SATURATED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

MUSHER
$$





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