Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 310048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

...VALID 01Z FRI JUL 31 2015 - 12Z FRI JUL 31 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW LHX 10 W LAA 25 SW GCK 35 WNW AVK 10 NE JWG 30 SSE GAG
25 NNE BGD 40 WSW AMA 50 NE ROW 25 ESE SRR SRR 25 NW SRR
55 NE TCS 20 NE TCS 35 NNE DMN 15 N DMN 40 NW SVC 30 N TCS
25 SSW 4MY SAF 35 S SKX 30 NW RTN 25 NNW TAD 20 WSW LHX.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 NNW BLH 30 SE TRM 20 WNW NJK 20 SW NJK 25 ESE CZZ 15 N CZZ
30 NNE RNM 15 ESE RIV 10 NNE RAL 15 N CMA 25 N SBA 30 E SMX
40 SW BFL 25 WNW SDB 15 NW WJF 25 E PTV 25 WSW MMH 35 NW MMH
30 NNW MMH 10 SE BIH 25 N NID 15 SE NID 45 ESE NID 35 NE DAG
55 SW HND 35 SW HND 35 SSE HND 20 NNW EED 40 NNW BLH.


...SOUTHERN CA...

SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF
SRN CA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH RESIDUAL DAYTIME
INSTABILITY ACTING ON ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH PWS ACRS THE REGION.  MOST
ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RACE WWD AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING VORT OVER WRN AZ TOWARD SRN CA AND MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD
TOGETHER THRU THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
BEEN PREVIOUSLY WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION..WITH SOME CELL MERGERS
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT LIKELY.  GIVEN THE BREADTH OF
INSTABILITY...ANOMALOUS MOISTURE...AND MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS OF ONLY 5
TO 15 KNOTS...SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES AND PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MODEL QPFS DO NOT FULLY REFLECT THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE 00Z WRF-ARW AND THE
06Z CANADIAN GEM REGIONAL MODEL DO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TO EXCEED 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
TERRAIN. ANY CELL MERGERS OR BACKBUILDING COULD BOOST RAINFALL
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS...WITH MUCH OF THAT FALLING IN
A VERY SHORT TIME AT A GIVEN LOCATION.

...NM INTO PARTS OF SE CO/SW KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE...

TRIMMED PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA..ESPECIALLY WRN PORTION WHERE
ATMOS HAS BECOME A BIT MORE STABLE AFTER EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE..THE MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL
FUEL CONVECTION TO PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NM NEWD INTO SW KS...WRN OK...NW TX OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF VERY SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRC/VORT NEAR THE
NE NM/SE CO BORDER REGION.  MODELS INDICATE SOME ENHANCED 700 MB
WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT WHICH ALONG WITH A SLOW
INCREASE IN UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND THE FACT THAT THE VORT WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF INCREASING PWS...POTNL FOR ORGANIZED
HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL EXIST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AS SUPPORTED BY 18Z NAM CONEST AND 12Z NSSL WRF


BURKE/HAYES/SULLIVAN
$$





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