Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 290303
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1102 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE JUL 29 2014 - 00Z WED JUL 30 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW CVS 45 N ROW 30 WNW ROW 15 SSE SRR 20 SSW SRR 35 WSW SRR
55 ENE TCS 65 S ABQ 20 SSE ABQ 15 NNW 4MY 10 E SAF 30 SSW SKX
10 W SKX 25 NW SKX 10 ESE E33 25 WNW E33 10 ESE DRO 25 NW DRO
25 SSW TEX 10 W TEX TEX 25 NE TEX 30 SSW GUC 35 NNE CPW
15 NW ALS 15 ESE ALS 20 E ALS 25 NNW VTP 45 ESE MYP 30 ESE LXV
20 ESE CCU 25 WSW BJC 10 W BJC DEN 30 NW LIC 25 SSW LIC
20 NNW LHX 30 SE LHX 25 W SPD 25 NNE CAO 20 W DHT 35 E TCC
25 N CVN 10 NW CVS 20 WSW CVS.



03Z UPDATE...
REMOVED SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR THE NE AS EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW PRES AND ASSOCD COLD
FRONT NEWD THRU NEW ENGLAND.  OTHER EXCESSIVE AREAS AND REASONING
REMAIN UNCHANGED.  SULLIVAN  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...


THE VERY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD THRU MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST..AS A VERY MOIST/HIGH PW AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE..MORE THAN SEVERAL H5 S/WVS AND/OR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
IMPACT THE REGION..AND SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING AIDS IN
FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATIONS IN EASTERN
NM..EASTERN AZ..SOUTHWESTERN CO..SOUTHCENTRAL CA..SOUTHCENTRAL UT
AND AND NORTHEASTERN NV..ALL OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE LATEST MODEL QPFS
STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES PERTAINING TO ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR..SO ENDED UP TAKING A MANUAL BLENDED
APPROACH FOR THE MANUAL QPF.   ONE AREA THAT SEEMS PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO HEAVIER RAINS IS FROM EASTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF
CO..WHERE INITIALLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET ON THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER PWS SUPPORTS THE ACTIVITY.
HERE..WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT AREA..ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINS
IN AN HOUR OR SO ARE POSSIBLE..WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
PROBLEMS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY BACK
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN..AIDED BY THE ONE OR MORE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS LIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD UP THE
BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

BANN


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