Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 050720
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN JUL 05 2015 - 12Z MON JUL 06 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSE HTS 30 NNE BKW 25 N LWB 20 NW HSP 10 W HSP 20 N ROA
15 W ROA 15 N HLX 15 S VJI 30 SSE 1A6 10 NW OQT 35 S EKQ
10 SSE EKQ 10 WNW LOZ 20 SW JKL 35 SSE HTS.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

THE WELL DEFINED AND SMALL CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE TN
VALLEY AT THIS TIME IS FORECASTED SIMILARLY BY ALL OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING..WHILE ALSO OPENING UP WITH TIME.  EXPECT A RATHER
ORGANIZED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION BAND RAINFALL PATTERN TO PERSIST
WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE LATER SUNDAY HOURS..PRODUCING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM EASTERN TN/KY INTO SOUTHWESTERN VA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WV.  AREAL AVERAGE 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED
WITHIN A NARROW BAND..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS IN
A REGION OF GENERALLY LOW FF GUIDANCE VALUES.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 ENE PIR 30 SSW JKJ 30 W FOZ 10 WNW ORB 20 NE CQM 10 NW ELO
10 SSE ELO TWM 10 NE CDD 15 ENE 8Y2 20 SSE RWF 20 WSW FSD
45 NNE ONL 25 SSE ICR 10 SW ICR 30 NNW ICR 50 ENE PIR.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

THE DIGGING OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CANADA H5 TROF INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.  THE COMBINATION OF DECENT HEIGHT
FALLS..FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT..AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
IN HIGHER MOISTURE WITH PWS LIKELY POOLING TO NEAR OR OVER 2
INCHES VICINITY OF THR FRONT..WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS AS WE GET INTO THE LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.  FOR THE MOST PART THE MODEL MASS
FIELDS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM..LEADING TO RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RESULTING
CONVECTIVE EVENT.  QPF-WISE..THOUGHT THE NAM WAS A BIT SLOW/NORTH
AND WEST OUTLIER WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS..WHILE THE NSSL
WRF MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINS INTO IA LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL WAVE MAY HOLD THINGS UP
A BIT AT THIS TIME.  WPC QPF WENT IN BETWEEN THESE 2 "OUTLIER"
SOLUTIONS..WHICH WAS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE REMAINDER OF THE
QPF GUIDANCE.  FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY
FROM EASTERN SD INTO MUCH OF MN..WITH SOME ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

TERRY
$$




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