Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 220702
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI AUG 22 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
W22 35 ESE 48I 10 ESE LWB 20 NNW PSK BLF 20 SW I16 35 ENE JKL
55 SE LUK CVG 15 W EYE 10 NW DNV BMI 10 ENE PIA 25 WNW C75
10 SSW SQI 10 WNW RPJ 15 NE DKB 25 ENE MDW SBN 30 W AOH CMH
20 NNW PKB 30 E PKB W22.

THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE BETTER
PART OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES..VICINITY OF THE
INITIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL FINALLY GET
PUSHED SOUTHWARD THRU THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY.  A RATHER BROAD BUT MODERATELY STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS..WITH PWS FORECAST TO INCREASE/POOL TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2.25
INCHES VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.  THIS..COMBINED WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK H5 S/WV ENERGY MOVING THRU THE REGION ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES/TOP SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE..WILL
SUPPORT THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT..WITH CELLS GENERALLY
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR AT LEAST
SOME TEMPORARY TRAINING OF CELLS.  EXPECT AT LEAST SOME 1-2 INCH
AREAL AVERAGE RAINS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WITH ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH TOTALS QUITE
POSSIBLE..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ESE CXMN 60 ESE HVR 15 SSW GGW 25 SSW OLF 25 NNW GDV
20 SW GDV 20 NW MLS 60 NE BIL 25 NE BIL 25 SW BIL 40 SE LVM
25 SSW LVM 35 SW BZN 25 NE DLN 25 NNW DLN 30 WSW BTM 15 WSW 3DU
30 SSE GPI 25 NNW GPI 25 SSW CWRT 10 NNE CWRT 20 ENE CXBR
10 SSE CPRY 25 ESE CXMN.

A VERY WET PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER MT MAINLY DURING THE
2ND PART OF THIS PERIOD..AS A VERY COOL SEASON-LIKE H5 TROF DIGS
INTO THE AREA.
THIS MID TO UPPER TROF AMPLIFICATION AND A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF
THE VERY MOIST EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO
ESPECIALLY MT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINS/CONVECTION THRU MUCH OF MT..WITH SOME HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY
AMOUNTS LIKELY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS BACK IN CENTRAL MT.  MODEL
QPFS HERE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY TOTALS..AND STAYED
CLOSE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS..WITH AT LEAST SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL
AMOUNTS LIKELY IN CENTRAL MT AND ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OF 3+
INCHES POSSIBLE..BUT WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS THRU MUCH OF MT.


...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...

THIS WILL BE ANOTHER INCREASINGLY WET PORTION OF THE NATION
BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT..AS THE H5 TROF DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES..ALLLOWING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO
STRENGTHEN AND OVERRUN A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM PARTS OF
IA WESTWARD INTO NE AND SD.  EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY..A STRENGHENING EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY MOIST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH PLAINS..SUPPORTING ENHANCED RAINS OVER
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NE AND WESTERN SD.  A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL
QPFS WERE QUITE WET HERE..AND FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY..WITH AT LEAST
SOME 1-2 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINS EXPECTED AND SOME ISOLATED
HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.

TERRY
$$





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