Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 310639
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 31/1200 UTC THRU SEP 01/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AS T.D. #9 CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WHILE RECURVING
THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF, WPC QPF REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
FROM THE 00Z CYCLE, WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS REMAINING LARGELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH RAINS FROM
THE WEST COAST COULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FL IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC (IN THE DEW POINT FIELD) TROUGH.
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTER SHOT MAXIMA BETWEEN FORT
MYERS AND CEDAR KEY IN THE 5-10" RANGE, WHICH DUE TO DISAGREEMENT
IN THE GUIDANCE/RELATED UNCERTAINTY KEEPS THE FLASH FLOOD RISK AS
SLIGHT.  MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SC/GA/NORTHEAST FL COASTS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK LOW,
ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING AND FOCUSING ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE ARE
ADVERTISED BY THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UPSLOPE/STRONG EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND A
NEARBY BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT THE SURFACE AND 850 HPA ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF KS AND OK.  THE 00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF
MASS FIELDS SUPPORTED A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00Z UKMET/12Z
ECMWF/TO SOME DEGREE 00Z WRF NSSL, SO SHIFTED CONTINUITY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS KS/NE/OK.  SATURATED SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD RISK ELEVATED IN SOUTHEAST NM,
THE TX PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS, WHILE THE DEGREE OF
FORECAST RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OK TO BE IN
PLAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL-WISE.


DAKOTAS
~~~~~~~
A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AT 850
HPA IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AS IT
LIFTS INTO CANADA AS IT INTERACTS WITH 1-1.25" PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS HERE, WHICH LIES IN BETWEEN
THE BROAD SPREAD SEEN IN THE 00Z MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.  AS SOME OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE,
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.


NORTHEAST/OH/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF ORGANIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH DEEP/ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  THE PATTERN IN THIS AREA IS MOST
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS -- THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE TOO DRY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA/MD/NJ/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHEN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM PORTIONS OF OH ACROSS SOUTHERN PA, MD, AND NEAR THE PA/NJ
BORDER.


WESTERN GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
WHICH WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO SOUTHERN TX. THE AXIS OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE EASTERLY INFLOW MAX TO THE NORTH OF
THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.  SHIFTED CONTINUITY SOMEWHAT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN DEFERENCE TO THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE.


NORTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
MODELS WERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH LIGHT TO
OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED HEAVIER AMOUNTS SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN
WA/OR AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  AMOUNTS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM 00Z
WPC CONTINUITY, IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 01/12Z
 0.01 540189 540181 539175 534163 528153 524149 521150 515150
      509147 507147 504147 503149 507159 510163 509167 506164
      502162 499165 497169 499177 501183 502187 499187 493186
      490188 486192 484196 480202 477205 469211 460214 451217
      441219 441222 442225 447226 452226 456226 459227 458230
      454232 444234 436240 428245 426249 428251 431251 440248
      451247 456247 460250 463252 464254 467258 476266 491281
      498289 500288 503289 506286 511284 513279 518268 519252
      518246 518237 520227 523222 527212 534200 540189
 0.01 529013 530003 528997 518988 499980 485979 482979 480981
      480989 481992 479993 474989 465983 460981 457981 455983
      454987 457991 461996 464001 467006 470014 474026 477032
      481035 485038 489038 491036 493035 494037 498041 502045
      507048 509048 509043 509037 508034 512035 518036 522032
      524026 529013
 0.01 525833 523801 522786 522777 520772 508717 491677 488671
      488666 489662 484662 475644 465627 463629 459626 451629
      445636 439645 435655 432665 423682 414696 402715 397722
      393729 387737 382744 376752 372759 372763 377764 384770
      384775 383778 381780 375786 363800 351815 343832 341842
      345849 350871 350884 351891 350898 345920 347922 348926
      347929 345940 342952 339961 335970 329976 322982 320983
      317982 314979 308975 305971 305964 303941 303934 305930
      305923 303920 295916 292926 286945 285950 283953 281953
      275947 268941 260941 255941 252945 246947 241949 234953
      233963 232976 234986 240003 245012 249019 253029 255034
      252038 246038 242040 238047 235051 235055 236064 248079
      260090 272102 286113 294119 303121 322117 324112 326110
      329110 335111 336115 350126 356121 356115 354111 349102
      349095 361082 364078 367075 371079 372083 375088 380090
      384089 388086 394065 398062 402058 403056 397053 394051
      392047 391040 395037 410033 416029 411022 404016 398011
      395008 396005 399006 406007 408993 407984 400961 396951
      393940 390930 387920 386913 388908 391899 397881 403861
      407852 413845 423828 429820 435812 446797 449793 453790
      457787 460785 465782 470781 474778 476783 479794 481809
      483839
 0.01 483839 484843 485846 488856 491864 496871 499875 503878
      506878 508880 511877 516874 518870 519866 521855 523847
      524842 524836 525833
 0.01 497143 498136 498129 494120 493114 490110 487103 476088
      472085 468084 463084 459086 443090 427096 420099 411100
      408098 406100 403104 402111 404116 401119 395124 390127
      386129 380130 391144 390150 391155 394158 393165 391170
      391174 395174 398171 412162 418158 425155 442150 446148
      450149 458145 460143 463144 466147 468145 472143 477142
      482144 485147 493148 497143
 0.01 470888 470883 469880 468875 466873 466871 462871 462873
      463878 463883 464886 465888 466890 468890 470888
 0.01 224874 230888 235894 236904 239912 242916 246915 250911
      253903 256901 260901 266898 270896 273893 276890 277887
      283880 289876 296872 301868 306863 310857 314850 318843
      323836 326829 329822 334815 362758 373748 379742 382734
      386726 388717 397706 402699 405693 409686 411676 411668
      407662 399660 392661 385662 377665 370669 365671 362674
      350684 339695 317717 307728 303734 296738 281745 273749
      263751 259752 255754 249760 245765 243771 240778 240788
      237805 232823 227835 222847 221853 221861
 0.25 512263 514256 513251 511241 508232 505223 501216 496210
      489209 482211 476216 481224 478230 475232 471233 464236
      460238 476247 481252 486260 490268 495274 500275 503275
      509270 512263
 0.25 513012 513009 511006 510004 507001 505000 502999 498000
      500003 501006 503009 506011 508012 510011 512012 513012
 0.25 457655 456649 454646 447651 443657 439665 437673 435681
      436687 439690 442690 445688 451684 455676 457667 457657
      457655
 0.25 455712 454705 451702 448704 445708 440716 439728 439741
      437751 437758 439761 441762 445759 447755 450745 451733
      453723 455712
 0.25 425710 425705 423703 417707 414713 411719 410726 407733
      404739 400744 391753 387759 388763 390765 394769 393778
      391794 379818 379826 378832 382834 392831 398830 403826
      406820 409812 411807 413798 410790 407782 406763 407755
      411749 418738 421731 422723 423715 425710
 0.25 389688 389677 387673 384672 377673 371677 367684 364690
      362698 359704 354708 348712 342716 337722 329734 314740
      308743 304747 296750 289754 284759 280764 273774 268780
      262784 250791 246797 246801 250801 259800 264802 269806
      270810 267811 262811 259810 253806 248808 247810 243816
      241822 238830 234843 233852 234861 236869 240876 244880
      250882 259882 267880 280874 286870 292866 300856 303850
      306843 308836 311829 315822 319817 325812 329807 336795
      339788 341781 347765 351751 355747 364746 368745 371743
      375736 381722 386707 389697 389688
 0.25 396991 397986 397981 394976 388962 382949 379943 376938
      372934 370931 367931 364932 363935 361942 357957 352971
      341996 336009 329020 325024 320028 315031 307032 301034
      300037 301040 308049 310052 309055 304058 297060 292060
      280055 274052 267051 256055 252057 256062 261066 267070
      273072 280073 288081 293086 296091 300097 304102 306106
      308109 311110 316107 318098 318092 319089 322087 327085
      331081 339071 342065 344058 349055 351053 354053 356055
      359058 363057 367052 366045 366043 367041 369039 371034
      371031 372027 375020 379004 385994 392991 396991
 0.25 368811 368806 367803 364807 359812 356817 354822 351826
      348833 350836 353835 357831 360825 363821 366816 368811
 0.25 272968 271963 268958 265956 259955 253955 249958 246961
      244966 243973 244979 246990 248996 249000 253004 256006
      263008 266007 267005 267997 266992 265989 266985 268980
      269975 272970 272968
 0.50 508251 508245 507240 505232 502225 497218 492213 488213
      485215 485218 486222 491227 493235 493242 495246 499252
      505257 508251
 0.50 497260 497257 496256 496254 495253 494251 492249 491248
      489248 487249 487251 488254 490257 491260 492262 494263
      495262 496262 497260
 0.50 481239 481236 481235 480234 479233 478235 477238 478240
      480240 481239
 0.50 454658 454653 451652 449655 447658 445660 444663 443666
      442669 442672 442676 443676 446674 449673 451671 452668
      453664 454661 454658
 0.50 451721 451713 449711 446715 444720 443725 443732 443737
      442743 443749 445749 448745 449739 450733 450728 451723
      451721
 0.50 401753 399751 395754 397761 397765 398771 398777 399785
      398792 396797 392801 389810 392813 395814 398814 400808
      400801 402795 402781 402775 402767 401753
 0.50 385694 384684 383680 380678 376678 373681 370686 366700
      363706 358711 348719 345725 345729 346734 351738 357740
      362742 368741 372736 375729 379716 384701 385694
 0.50 388984 388978 387974 384966 380959 377954 371948 368949
      366952 360967 354982 351989 349998 348004 347010 349015
      361013 365012 368010 371002 373994 378989 388984
 0.50 342766 342759 340753 337750 333748 328746 323746 312748
      303752 294757 288763 284771 279780 273787 268794 268798
      272801 287810 288814 284815 279813 273814 263813 254811
      251813 249817 245827 242834 239845 239856 242866 247873
      252876 257876 264876 270874 277869 291859 298853 303844
      304839 304833 307824 310820 314816 320810 326805 332796
      336788 339777 342766
 0.50 344041 344037 343032 339028 335027 332028 326033 321037
      315041 314044 314048 318055 320057 324059 332060 335060
      337057 341050 342045 344042 344041
 0.50 322074 322070 320067 312065 307065 304067 298070 296074
      296077 295084 298090 302095 306096 309094 311092 313088
      316082 321076 322074
 0.50 267970 267966 266964 263962 261961 257962 255962 252964
      250965 248968 249972 252972 255973 259973 261974 263974
      266972 267970
 0.50 260998 261996 260995 260994 259992 258992 257992 255991
      254992 253994 253996 255998 257999 258000 260999 260998
 1.00 379700 378693 376692 374695 372699 372706 369707 369708
      369711 371715 374710 376707 378703 379700
 1.00 371727 372722 370720 367720 365722 362723 358725 358727
      359730 361732 363734 367734 369732 370729 371727
 1.00 377976 377970 375967 371963 369963 367967 365972 364976
      362981 362985 366985 370983 373980 377977 377976
 1.00 334765 332759 327754 321753 313755 301761 296765 292769
      288775 285781 285788 287795 290801 296805 301806 309806
      315804 321800 326796 329790 333776 334765
 1.00 335049 334048 334047 334045 333043 332042 331042 329042
      328042 327042 326042 324044 323046 324048 325050 325051
      326053 327054 329055 330055 332054 333053 334051 334050
      335049
 1.00 311077 311075 310075 309074 307074 305074 304076 303077
      303078 302080 301081 300082 301084 303085 304086 306085
      308084 309083 308082 308081 308079 309078 311077 311077
 1.00 301834 299825 294821 286820 279819 264816 260817 257818
      253824 250830 248837 247847 248857 251864 253866 257868
      262868 271865 278863 284860 290856 296851 299845 301836
      301834
 1.50 328777 328769 326762 323759 319759 312761 307763 303766
      297775 293784 293791 296796 300800 305800 310799 315796
      322790 325786 327781 328777
 1.50 299838 298831 294826 288823 281821 268819 263819 259823
      256829 253836 252843 253852 255860 256863 259864 266864
      272861 285856 290853 295849 298843 299838
 2.00 324775 324770 322767 316765 309767 304772 300779 298788
      301793 303794 308794 315790 320785 323780 324775
 2.00 297840 297833 295829 287824 276822 271821 266823 262826
      260831 257840 256847 257854 259859 263862 271859 282855
      291850 294847 297843 297840
 3.00 295838 295834 292830 285827 276825 271826 269829 265837
      262846 263852 265855 269855 273855 282852 289847 294841
      295838
 4.00 292839 293834 291833 285830 280829 273829 270835 269841
      268847 271851 277850 282848 287845 291841 292839
 5.00 289839 288835 287833 284832 280833 277833 275836 274838
      274842 276845 279846 283844 285843 288841 289839
$$





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