Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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670
FXUS04 KWBC 270717
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 27/1200 UTC THRU SEP 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NEW ENGLAND---MID ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST

MODEL ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
FRONT---INITIALLY STRETCHING FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GA---AS IT EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST...WHILE STALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF FRONTAL AND PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP---WITH AREAL
AVERAGE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MA.


COASTAL CAROLINAS

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST AND NC COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER---THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY AFFECT
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC AND PARTICULARLY NC WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS.


UPPER LAKES

LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WHICH WILL
DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE WESTERN
END OF THE ASSOCIATED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION BAND
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION FROM NORTHEAST MN---ACROSS
NORTHERN WI--THE U.P. OF MI...AND WESTERN LOWER MI. A 90-100 KT
250 MB JET STREAK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW (AND RESULTANT
VORT LOBE) WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ON THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF THE RELATIVELY WARMER
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL ENHANCE
PRECIP TOTALS OVER THE U.P. AND NORTHWEST L.P.  WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TOTALS IN THE .25-.50" RANGE DEPICTED WITH HEAVIER TOTALS
IN AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION.


SOUTH TX

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
LOWER TX COAST TODAY. DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (AT LEAST 500-1000
J/KG) AND DEEP MOISTURE (PWS 2-2.25 INCHES) WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOWER TX
COAST...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (AROUND 10 KTS) AS
WELL AS BULK SHEAR (<20 KTS BETWEEN 0-6 KM) WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICAL SETUP (INSTABILITY ADVECTING IN OFF THE
GOMEX)...EVEN WITH PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY EXPECT AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS
OF 1-2" PER A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS(HIGHEST AROUND
BROWNSVILLE-PORT MANSFIELD EAST TO SOUTH PADRE ISLAND)...WHILE PER
THE HIGH-RES CAMS EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-6" IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT.

HURLEY/ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 458624 460627 462634 466638 470640 472651 473657 470661
      468663 467668 467674 466679 474681 481683 486686 491691
      495696 499703 502711 511721 514729 515740 515743 513743
      508739 503733 497729 493721 489714 485710 479706 472706
      465708 455711 446712 442711 441708 439708 437712 436722
      432725 426729 423731 421734 412746 402760 394770 389778
      386784 379795 373800 371806 365821 359833 355840 351846
      347854 344864 342867 341865 340862 340860 337860 332865
      328870 318881 316886 313890 306895 303901 300903 298904
      293909 292913 292919 292929 292942 291951 290956 289959
      286963 281975 275980 273986 268994 270997 274999 286005
      291009 295010 295014 297017 296022 293028 290031 288036
      289042 291045 296052 301057 304064 305074 308079 308083
      312081 315084 321087 323090 326092 328092 327088 329080
      334076 336073 338074 342076 343079 346084 350086 351088
      351093 349097 350101 354107 360098 368101 370104 370110
      369117 368127 365135 362139 360139 356144 353146 349146
      347143 344142 333145 330138 332134 336128 337121 334116
      330115 327116 326120 325127 323131 320134 324149 325156
      325162 323166 319167 313165 309163 297154 288145 284141
      281136 278132 278129 286131 289127 292119 293116 292112
      290109 286108 280106 279103 280101 282099 285097 287095
      289092 288089 283084 281080 278076 273072 267073 255068
      249065 244061 237057 234049 234044 231037 228027 229922
      231911 233905 237907 242907 248909 251911 253917 257927
      259928 261926 262921 262906 262899 263894 263880 266878
      269880 269887 271893 271906 273921 275933 278935 281932
      284928 284920 284914 286911 286907 280898 278894 277887
      275883 274875 274869 275862 276851 277848
 0.01 277848 277837 279831 278828 274828 271830 268835 266836
      263837 259838 254837 251835 250829 245827 241825 239824
      236826 233829 231834 229838 227838 225833 226827 223817
      222803 221797 223793 226781 239771 251769 258768 263766
      275763 280763 284763 290763 294765 299764 303761 306759
      304757 301755 302753 304748 307744 310741 317734 325728
      334724 353714 360707 366700 377683 383675 386672 392670
      396667 401666 405663 408660 410658 416651 419647 423645
      437640 441638 442636 444629
 0.01 540170 539163 536158 531158 527155 524154 522156 518161
      515166 511170 506166 503165 501168 500175 502181 510191
      519199 526196 531193 534187 537181 539172 540170
 0.01 501227 501223 499219 498214 496211 488209 481210 475213
      471213 469215 470219 473219 480217 488220 492226 496232
      501227
 0.01 512918 510913 507908 503905 499899 500894 500891 498890
      493886 488886 485886 482882 483874 485866 487862 489856
      487848 485841 486834 486826 484819 483811 484806 484798
      481793 478790 466790 458792 453795 445802 441805 438810
      437815 438820 439823 443824 445825 444828 451838 444844
      441844 439841 435837 432840 428840 424842 421846 418851
      415854 411859 410862 409867 409873 410880 412886 415889
      420898 422902 425904 428903 441921 447929 455938 463943
      468945 474945 482945 489947 494947 502940 508931 511924
      512918
 0.01 450746 449736 445734 442738 442743 441745 436751 435756
      432771 430786 425798 424804 424806 427805 435797 441786
      444773 448761 450746
 0.01 337806 336801 332801 328802 327806 324812 321815 320819
      321830 321840 322843 324843 327841 328836 326833 326829
      327827 332820 335813 337806
 0.01 319847 318830 317821 312822 308824 305821 310811 309808
      305808 302808 299811 296815 292819 285825 289825 290829
      291832 289835 290839 292841 296836 301836 300842 309848
      315851 319847
 0.01 293872 293868 291864 291862 291858 289854 288858 288862
      288866 288870 288873 288877 288881 290881 290878 292874
      293872
 0.01 264029 262025 261021 257018 252017 249015 246015 245018
      247022 248026 250030 253034 257032 261030 264029
 0.25 460651 460645 458642 453640 443644 437646 424651 418655
      414661 407672 403680 401683 398684 394682 390681 387683
      382689 377695 369705 357715 353719 347722 333730 321736
      315741 311747 318772 320775 320779 322782 325782 328789
      331789 335787 343776 350764 353759 358755 362755 364758
      366763 364768 361774 357780 350791 347797 346805 345814
      345818 346821 351826 355819 362809 369797 377783 390760
      405734 421711 436686 443673 447668 451664 455662 458658
      460651
 0.25 475852 476844 474837 470835 467829 463827 461826 459827
      457833 456839 441853 437855 430855 425855 420859 418863
      417868 419871 422871 428871 439871 449869 458864 461866
      461871 461876 459883 459889 460893 459901 459906 461908
      469914 472911 474904 476890 475872 475855 475852
 0.25 461807 460802 458801 455802 453804 451806 449809 447812
      449816 451817 454816 456815 459813 460810 461807
 0.25 353128 353126 352124 352123 350122 348123 347125 346127
      347129 347131 349132 351132 352130 353129 353128
 0.25 349114 347113 346112 346114 347115 349115 349114
 0.25 289806 289801 288796 286790 283784 277781 269783 261783
      252784 247788 244794 243801 242808 244815 245819 248822
      254822 260820 264816 269804 272801 275801 280802 282809
      282812 284813 288810 289806
 0.25 231987 232997 236002 245005 253006 257006 259003 259998
      258994 259990 261987 266982 277970 281964 283958 284952
      283947 281945 276945 273945 269944 265937 258935 254935
      250937 241938 235939 232945 230951
 0.50 455650 454648 451647 445649 438649 431651 424654 419658
      413667 408677 401689 395697 391699 389691 387688 385689
      382693 374704 366710 361715 357719 352722 347725 334732
      324737 315744 313749 315754 323765 329775 333777 339774
      346766 353755 359747 367739 371739 372745 375745 376748
      374755 371768 367780 366782 369784 373779 379768 385759
      392748 418709 424700 430687 434677 436671 441665 450657
      454654 455650
 0.50 472885 472879 471874 470869 470863 470853 470848 467848
      465852 464856 464862 465868 466872 464874 464880 463886
      464892 463896 463902 465904 468898 471888 472885
 0.50 458844 456844 454845 451847 449848 448853 447855 445857
      443860 443861 447861 450860 451858 453856 455853 456850
      457847 458844
 0.50 437866 437863 436862 434862 433861 431861 429861 427861
      426860 424861 423862 422863 421865 421867 423868 424869
      426869 428869 430869 431869 433868 435868 436867 437866
 0.50 362801 362798 361797 361796 359795 357795 355796 354797
      352799 352800 351802 351803 350804 350806 351809 353808
      355808 356807 358805 360803 361801 362801
 0.50 231981 235986 235993 237997 239999 244002 247003 252003
      254001 254996 253989 257986 262981 266978 271973 275968
      279963 280958 279954 276952 270951 263948 259944 252942
      248945 237952 231959
 0.50 261795 260790 255791 253792 249794 248796 246801 246807
      247809 249809 252806 253802 255799 259797 261795
 1.00 434659 432657 427658 421662 416668 412674 405687 397700
      394707 391716 391725 393729 397730 403725 407719 415707
      422694 425686 427677 430670 433662 434659
 1.00 384708 383701 380700 374707 366713 359720 356723 352726
      344730 335736 326740 322742 319746 319751 322755 327763
      333771 338769 341766 347758 353751 358743 365736 371729
      379725 382723 381720 384708
 1.00 272966 272961 268958 259957 253956 248956 239959 235961
      233963 232968 231973 236979 241981 246980 255978 263976
      267974 270971 272966
 1.50 421682 421675 417674 414676 412680 407688 403696 399704
      396712 397718 401720 405717 407714 413706 416698 420688
      421682
 1.50 378709 372711 366715 356726 343735 338739 331742 327743
      324745 322748 324754 328759 332765 334767 338767 340765
      342761 346755 351750 354743 359738 365733 369727 373722
      376714 378709
 1.50 267970 267966 266964 259962 254961 246961 241962 235965
      233971 235975 239977 244978 252976 257975 263974 267970
 2.00 416688 417685 416681 413682 411687 409691 407696 405699
      403704 403706 404709 406708 409704 411702 413696 415692
      416688
 2.00 372718 371714 368716 364719 360725 357728 352731 347736
      348741 350744 352742 356738 361734 365730 369725 371720
      372718
 2.00 341759 340757 338753 337751 334750 332748 331748 333750
      334754 333758 334761 334763 338764 340762 341759
 2.00 264970 261967 257965 252965 246965 241965 237967 236971
      239975 242976 246975 252974 255973 261972 264970

$$





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