Quantitative Precipitation Statement
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FSUS46 KSGX 222357
QPSSGX

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
357 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN INCHES IN 6-HOUR PERIODS...
   [ BEGINNING TIMES FOR EACH PERIOD IN LOCAL TIME...                    ]
   [ FOR EXAMPLE...04THU                                                 ]
   [            ...10THU IS A FORECAST FOR  4 AM TO 10 AM THURSDAY       ]
   [ FOR EXAMPLE...22THU                                                 ]
   [            ...04FRI IS A FORECAST FOR  10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY]


...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   HUNTINGTON BEACH
   0.61  0.10  0.10  0.14  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.04  0.00  0.00
   NEWPORT BEACH
   0.57  0.07  0.17  0.14  0.01  0.05  0.00  0.05  0.02  0.00
   LAGUNA BEACH
   0.55  0.12  0.27  0.15  0.04  0.05  0.00  0.05  0.02  0.00
   SAN CLEMENTE
   0.65  0.10  0.17  0.14  0.06  0.11  0.01  0.03  0.02  0.00


...ORANGE COUNTY INLAND...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   ANAHEIM
   0.88  0.17  0.20  0.21  0.02  0.03  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00
   FULLERTON
   0.65  0.10  0.24  0.20  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.02  0.00  0.00
   BREA
   0.65  0.16  0.28  0.23  0.04  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00
   VILLA PARK
   0.94  0.26  0.22  0.24  0.02  0.04  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00


...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   FREMONT CANYON
   0.96  0.38  0.27  0.28  0.03  0.05  0.00  0.01  0.01  0.00
   SILVERADO CANYON, 3 MI EAST OF SILVERADO
   1.49  0.43  0.42  0.35  0.04  0.01  0.01  0.01  0.01  0.00
   MODJESKA PRESERVE
   1.17  0.23  0.30  0.28  0.05  0.00  0.01  0.02  0.01  0.00
   SANTIAGO PEAK
   1.50  0.43  0.34  0.35  0.08  0.01  0.01  0.03  0.00  0.00
   SANTA ROSA PLATEAU
   1.24  0.26  0.19  0.24  0.08  0.03  0.01  0.05  0.04  0.00


...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   ONTARIO
   0.89  0.24  0.28  0.21  0.11  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00
   SAN BERNARDINO
   0.77  0.19  0.33  0.23  0.10  0.01  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.00
   BEAUMONT
   0.83  0.37  0.36  0.33  0.15  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.00
   RIVERSIDE
   0.44  0.28  0.40  0.19  0.07  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.00
   PERRIS VALLEY CHANNEL
   0.49  0.14  0.17  0.23  0.08  0.00  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.00
   PRADO DAM
   0.70  0.40  0.38  0.23  0.08  0.00  0.01  0.01  0.00  0.00
   TEMECULA
   0.66  0.22  0.15  0.35  0.09  0.04  0.01  0.05  0.07  0.00
   HEMET
   0.42  0.17  0.18  0.38  0.13  0.01  0.01  0.01  0.01  0.00


...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   IDYLLWILD
   1.44  0.90  0.69  0.88  0.37  0.06  0.02  0.01  0.04  0.00


...COACHELLA VALLEY...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   PALM SPRINGS
   0.20  0.04  0.03  0.10  0.02  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
   THERMAL
   0.07  0.01  0.01  0.04  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00


...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   SAN ANTONIO DAM
   1.62  0.62  0.32  0.45  0.11  0.01  0.01  0.01  0.01  0.00
   LYTLE CREEK
   1.67  0.64  0.28  0.35  0.08  0.05  0.01  0.01  0.00  0.00
   WRIGHTWOOD
   1.40  0.95  0.34  0.37  0.11  0.01  0.01  0.01  0.00  0.00
   LAKE ARROWHEAD
   1.94  0.76  0.49  0.46  0.18  0.02  0.02  0.00  0.00  0.00
   BIG BEAR LAKE
   1.29  0.87  0.66  0.46  0.23  0.00  0.02  0.01  0.03  0.00
   BIG MORONGO CANYON
   1.14  0.43  0.25  0.20  0.03  0.00  0.01  0.02  0.00  0.00


...APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   HESPERIA
   0.35  0.13  0.05  0.11  0.06  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
   VICTORVILLE
   0.15  0.04  0.03  0.08  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
   APPLE VALLEY
   0.13  0.04  0.03  0.08  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   OCEANSIDE
   0.72  0.16  0.10  0.45  0.06  0.16  0.12  0.04  0.00  0.00
   MIRAMAR
   0.81  0.11  0.18  0.31  0.08  0.20  0.04  0.02  0.02  0.00
   SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
   0.69  0.06  0.20  0.31  0.17  0.12  0.15  0.05  0.04  0.00
   CHULA VISTA
   0.63  0.07  0.25  0.34  0.09  0.16  0.09  0.03  0.07  0.00
   SAN YSIDRO
   0.62  0.10  0.12  0.43  0.11  0.17  0.13  0.05  0.07  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   FALLBROOK
   0.76  0.30  0.17  0.49  0.09  0.07  0.04  0.04  0.01  0.00
   RANCHO BERNARDO
   0.70  0.17  0.21  0.31  0.10  0.18  0.09  0.01  0.03  0.00
   LA MESA
   0.72  0.15  0.28  0.39  0.15  0.31  0.08  0.04  0.04  0.00
   EL CAJON
   0.67  0.13  0.22  0.36  0.12  0.26  0.05  0.04  0.01  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   PALOMAR MOUNTAIN
   1.63  0.97  0.58  0.84  0.19  0.05  0.04  0.03  0.04  0.00
   JULIAN
   1.28  0.70  0.75  0.85  0.31  0.19  0.09  0.05  0.12  0.00
   MOUNT LAGUNA
   1.25  0.70  0.80  0.88  0.25  0.17  0.08  0.04  0.04  0.00
   CAMPO
   0.84  0.37  0.22  0.58  0.13  0.26  0.07  0.07  0.06  0.00


...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...

   16SUN 22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE
   22SUN 04MON 10MON 16MON 22MON 04TUE 10TUE 16TUE 22TUE 04WED

   BORREGO SPRINGS
   0.16  0.05  0.10  0.15  0.01  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.00

$$

DISCUSSION...
THE THIRD STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THIS SEQUENCE OF
STORMS...IS CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE MOST WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE STORM...THEN
TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
FURTHER...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...

COAST..............2 TO 2.5 INCHES.
VALLEYS............2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES.
MOUNTAINS..........3.5 TO 6 INCHES. ISOLATED 8+ INCHES.
UPPER DESERTS......0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES.
LOWER DESERTS......0.25 TO 1 INCH.

WITH THIS AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL RAIN ON NEARLY SATURATED SOILS IN
MANY AREAS...SOME FLOODING IS EXPECTED. OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL
FLOW AND MAY REACH OR EXCEED BANKFULL IN SOME CASES TONIGHT. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL MAKE POINT PRECIP FORECASTS LESS RELIABLE BUT THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
OF ONE INCH/HR OR MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS COULD ALSO TRIGGER DEBRIS FLOWS AND MUD SLIDES
ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.

HEAVY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ABOVE 5500 FEET...WITH SEVERAL FEET
POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET.

$$



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