Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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TXUS20 KNES 261431
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/26/16 1431Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 1415Z JRM
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...US VIRGIN ISLANDS...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC
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EVENT...INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WITH INVEST 99L WELL WEST OF THE AREA
TODAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HVY RAIN HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER...A
PLUME OF MOISTURE IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE SEEN IN THE BLENDED TPW AND INDIVIDUAL AMSU PRODUCT SHOW PWAT
VALUES OVER 2"...WHICH AGREES WITH THE 12Z SAN JUAN SOUNDING. THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE RATHER BENIGN TODAY...BUT WV IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAP
FORECAST RUNS...HINT AT A WEAK IMPULSE AROUND 300MB MOVING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TOWARD NW/W PR. THIS COULD WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CHANNEL
OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW PASSING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THESE FEATURES
MAY ACT TO FOCUS TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW TALL
AND SKINNY CAPE...INDICATIVE OF HVY RAINFALL RATES IF CONVECTION
MATERIALIZES. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ISLAND COULD ACT AS A LIMITING
FACTOR...BUT CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN W/NW PR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...AN
AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1425-1930Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS THE CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS W/NW PORTIONS OF PR...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AS STREAMLINE CONFLUENCE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND...CONVECTIVE TRAINING COULD DEVELOP DOWNWIND
OF THE CORDILLERA IMPACTING NW PR. GIVEN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THIS
CHANNEL OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...CONVECTION WITH HVY RAIN
THIS AFTN IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SFC LIFT IN THIS
AREA. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THERE...BUT SHOULD
BE FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN ACROSS PR.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1926 6764 1910 6373 1726 6382 1743 6790
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