Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 231453
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/23/14 1453Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 1430Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...W MONTANA...N IDAHO...W OREGON...WASHINGTON...
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ATTN WFOS...MSO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...
ATTN RFCS...NWRFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE AND ANALYSIS FEATURES FOR LOCAL HVY RAINS...HEIGHTENED
FF THREAT FOR BURN AREAS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND THE WESTERN
OREGON..WASHINGTON INTO N IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AREA...BUT NOT
EXCEPTIONAL...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THE 1" TO 1.3" VALUES WERE CLOSE TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO.
SOURCE OF THIS MOISTURE WAS THE OLD FRONTAL MOISTURE THAT CAME INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE WEEKEND AND HAD SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS OUT IN
THE PACIFIC.  ANOTHER SOURCE WAS FROM MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH
WITH ORIGINS JUST OFF BAJA AND SOUTHERN CA ABOUT JULY 13/14.  NOW THE
MOISTURE HAS COMBINED AND WAS AHEAD OF A SOLID 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMO 500MB HEIGHTS WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 48N/127W JUST OFF
THE WASHINGTON COAST.    SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD LOWERING HEIGHTS
TO THE COAST AND INLAND THIS MORNING AND FOR AREAS WESTERN HALF OF WA
AND OREGON LOOKING AT SOUTHERN END OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH/NE
TOWARD THE S TO C OREGON COAST...WHILE AREAS EAST ACROSS E WA/NE OREGON
INTO N IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA WILL BE IMPACTED BY LOWERING HEIGHTS
BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY UPPER LEVEL PV CENTER NOW CROSSING N CA/
S CENTRAL OREGON AS MAIN TRIGGER FOR LATER TODAY`S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO GO ALONG WITH MOISTURE...HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS.  STILL GREATEST
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FF FROM HEAVY RAIN IN BURN AREAS.  UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE W/C GULF OF ALASKA APPEARS TO BE THE KICKER THAT SHOULD
MOVE THIS SYSTEM OUT OVER WA TONIGHT AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES/S
CANADA ON THUR.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1445-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CURRENT RAINFALL WESTERN WA SOUTH THRU NW OREGON
AND THEN SCATTERED SOUTH INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IMMEDIATE
TROUGH AND WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HVY TO AREAS OF
WESTERN WA AND NW OREGON, ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES.  SOUTH TO SSW
FLOW HELPING WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORED SW FACING OROGRAPHIC
AREAS OF CASCADES AND HAVING A BIT MORE CHANCE TO SPILLING OUT OVER THE
CASCADE CREST FROM THAT DIRECTION AND AFFECT BIGGEST OF THE BURN AREA(S).
AREAS FROM CASCADES WEST WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HVY ALL
THIS PERIOD.  CENTRAL OREGON THRU CENTRAL WA JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES
WILL BE INCREASING THIS PERIOD.   AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN WA AND NE OREGON AS REINFORCING MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND EXPANDS CONVECTION INTO N
IDAHO AND WESTERN/NW MONTANA FOR AN INCRD FF THREAT.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4978 12499 4954 11522 4716 11640 4742 11783 4451 12431

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