Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 261338
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0638 MST Sunday, February 26, 2017

This forecast is for Sunday, February 26, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 30.7 F/-0.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 565 ft/min (2.9 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 12648 ft MSL (7363 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 38.0 F/3.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1130 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10607 ft MSL (5322 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 02/27....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... Becoming good
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 12416 ft MSL (7131 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 12908 ft MSL (7623 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 02/27.......... Fair

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:36:12 / 17:48:21 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 12 min 9 sec (672 min 9 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:16 MST... 41.72 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/26/2017 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 17209 ft MSL (11924 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15230 ft MSL (9944 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +9.3
K index......................... -23.0

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -55.1 -67.2   265   57   29   1.7   1.0  112.7 234.8    61.8      M    M
 45000  -52.5 -62.5   265   64   33   1.8   1.0   91.9 197.4    53.5      M    M
 40000  -52.3 -62.1   265   62   32   0.3   0.2   67.1 152.7    41.4      M    M
 38000  -52.1 -61.8   265   61   31   0.4   0.2   59.2 138.6    37.2      M    M
 36000  -51.2 -60.2   270   66   34   1.7   0.9   52.1 125.7    33.3      M    M
 34000  -53.0 -63.4   270   57   29 -12.8  -7.0   40.8 105.5    26.3      M    M
 32000  -52.2 -62.0   275   45   23   2.9   1.6   33.7  92.6    21.8      M    M
 30000  -52.4 -62.3   290   38   20  -5.2  -2.8   25.5  77.9    16.4      M    M
 29000  -50.6 -59.1   295   31   16   4.5   2.5   23.0  73.4    14.8      M    M
 28000  -49.2 -56.6   330   23   12   4.6   2.5   21.0  69.8    13.5      M    M
 27000  -47.6 -53.7   330   24   12   8.0   4.4   19.3  66.7    12.3      M    M
 26000  -45.2 -49.4   335   24   13   8.0   4.4   18.6  65.5    11.9      M    M
 25000  -42.8 -45.0   335   25   13   8.0   4.4   18.0  64.4    11.6      M    M
 24000  -40.4 -40.7   320   22   11   8.0   4.4   17.3  63.1    11.2      M    M
 23000  -38.0 -36.4   305   21   11   7.2   4.0   16.6  61.9    10.8      M    M
 22000  -36.3 -33.3   300   22   11   5.5   3.0   15.2  59.4     9.7      M    M
 21000  -34.7 -30.5   300   23   12   5.5   3.0   13.6  56.5     8.5      M    M
 20000  -33.0 -27.4   300   24   12   5.6   3.0   12.2  53.9     7.4      M    M
 19500  -32.2 -26.0   300   20   10   5.6   3.1   11.4  52.6     6.8      M    M
 19000  -31.3 -24.3   300   16    8   6.4   3.5   10.7  51.2     6.2      M    M
 18500  -30.2 -22.4   305   15    8   7.3   4.0   10.2  50.4     5.9      M    M
 18000  -29.1 -20.4   315   15    8   7.3   4.0    9.8  49.7     5.6      M    M
 17500  -28.0 -18.4   315   16    8   7.7   4.2    9.5  49.0     5.3      M    M
 17000  -26.9 -16.4   320   18    9   7.7   4.2    9.1  48.4     5.0      M    M
 16500  -25.7 -14.3   315   19   10   7.7   4.2    8.7  47.7     4.7      M    M
 16000  -24.6 -12.3   310   21   11   7.8   4.3    8.4  47.1     4.5      M    M
 15500  -23.5 -10.3   305   23   12   5.6   3.1    7.9  46.3     4.1      M    M
 15000  -22.7  -8.9   300   26   14   5.2   2.9    7.1  44.9     3.4      M    M
 14500  -21.6  -6.9   295   31   16   5.2   2.8    6.0  42.8     2.4      M    M
 14000  -20.8  -5.4   295   34   18   5.2   2.8    5.3  41.5     1.8      M    M
 13500  -20.0  -4.0   290   36   19   5.2   2.8    4.5  40.1     1.1      M    M
 13000  -19.2  -2.6   285   39   20   5.3   2.9    3.8  38.8     0.4      M    M
 12500  -18.6  -1.5   285   41   21   3.1   1.7    2.9  37.2    -0.5    551  2.8
 12000  -18.1  -0.6   280   43   22   3.3   1.8    1.8  35.3    -1.4    521  2.6
 11500  -17.6   0.3   280   41   21   6.0   3.3    0.9  33.6    -2.3    490  2.5
 11000  -16.5   2.3   280   40   21   7.3   4.0    0.5  32.9    -2.7    442  2.2
 10500  -15.4   4.3   285   38   20   7.4   4.1    0.1  32.2    -3.1    394  2.0
 10250  -14.8   5.4   285   38   19   7.4   4.1   -0.1  31.9    -3.3    370  1.9
 10000  -14.3   6.3   285   37   19   7.4   4.1   -0.2  31.6    -3.5    346  1.8
  9750  -13.7   7.3   285   36   19   7.6   4.2   -0.4  31.3    -3.7    322  1.6
  9500  -13.1   8.4   285   35   18   8.1   4.4   -0.5  31.0    -3.8    297  1.5
  9250  -12.5   9.5   285   33   17   8.2   4.5   -0.7  30.8    -3.9    272  1.4
  9000  -11.9  10.6   285   31   16   8.1   4.5   -0.8  30.6    -4.0    246  1.3
  8750  -11.3  11.7   285   29   15   8.1   4.5   -0.9  30.4    -4.2    221  1.1
  8500  -10.7  12.7   285   27   14   8.1   4.5   -1.0  30.2    -4.3    195  1.0
  8250  -10.1  13.8   285   26   13   8.1   4.5   -1.1  30.0    -4.4    169  0.9
  8000   -9.5  14.9   285   24   12   8.1   4.5   -1.2  29.8    -4.6    144  0.7
  7750   -8.9  16.0   290   21   11   8.1   4.5   -1.4  29.5    -4.7    118  0.6
  7500   -8.3  17.1   300   18    9   8.2   4.5   -1.5  29.3    -4.9     93  0.5
  7250   -7.7  18.1   310   16    8   8.2   4.5   -1.6  29.1    -5.0     67  0.3
  7000   -7.1  19.2   325   14    7   8.2   4.5   -1.7  28.9    -5.1     42  0.2
  6750   -6.5  20.3   330   13    7   8.1   4.5   -1.9  28.6    -5.3     16  0.1
  6500   -5.8  21.6   340   13    7   8.2   4.5   -2.0  28.4    -5.4      M    M
  6250   -5.2  22.6   345   13    7   8.0   4.4   -2.1  28.2    -5.6      M    M
  6000   -4.6  23.7   355   13    7   8.8   4.8   -2.3  27.9    -5.7      M    M
  5750   -4.0  24.8   340   10    5   5.8   3.2   -2.4  27.7    -5.9      M    M
  5500   -3.9  25.0   305    8    4  -2.0  -1.1   -3.0  26.6    -6.5      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/26/2017 at 0800 MST          |       02/26/2017 at 1100 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +8.3        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +8.1
CINH...    -0.2    K Index... -16.9        | CINH...    -0.4    K Index... -17.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.0 -67.0  260  26 13   1.2   0.7 | -55.3 -67.5  230  33 17   0.9   0.5
 45000 -53.2 -63.8  265  30 16   1.2   0.7 | -53.9 -65.0  235  34 17   0.9   0.5
 40000 -52.8 -63.0  265  30 15  -0.0  -0.0 | -54.3 -65.7  245  30 15  -0.6  -0.3
 38000 -52.9 -63.2  265  29 15  -0.1  -0.1 | -54.6 -66.3  250  28 14  -0.4  -0.2
 36000 -53.2 -63.8  265  25 13  -0.5  -0.3 | -54.5 -66.1  265  23 12   0.3   0.2
 34000 -53.5 -64.3  270  21 11  -0.5  -0.3 | -54.3 -65.7  285  21 11   0.3   0.1
 32000 -52.8 -63.0  280  16  8   2.5   1.4 | -53.2 -63.8  320  24 12   3.1   1.7
 30000 -51.1 -60.0  295  12  6   2.6   1.4 | -51.4 -60.5  340  35 18   3.0   1.7
 29000 -50.0 -58.0  305  11  5   6.2   3.4 | -49.7 -57.5  350  44 23   6.5   3.6
 28000 -48.1 -54.6  310  10  5   6.1   3.3 | -47.8 -54.0  350  53 27   6.6   3.6
 27000 -46.3 -51.3  320   9  4   6.1   3.3 | -45.8 -50.4  355  61 32   6.6   3.6
 26000 -44.5 -48.1  330   8  4   6.7   3.7 | -43.8 -46.8  355  70 36   7.1   3.9
 25000 -42.3 -44.1  330   7  4   7.2   4.0 | -41.6 -42.9  355  72 37   7.3   4.0
 24000 -40.2 -40.4  335   6  3   7.2   4.0 | -39.5 -39.1  355  75 39   7.3   4.0
 23000 -38.0 -36.4  340   5  3   7.2   4.0 | -37.3 -35.1  355  77 40   7.4   4.1
 22000 -35.9 -32.6  325   5  3   7.2   3.9 | -35.0 -31.0  355  68 35   7.4   4.1
 21000 -33.7 -28.7  315   5  3   7.2   3.9 | -32.8 -27.0  355  58 30   7.5   4.1
 20000 -31.7 -25.1  305   5  3   5.9   3.2 | -30.7 -23.3  355  47 24   5.9   3.2
 19500 -30.8 -23.4  295   5  3   6.0   3.3 | -29.8 -21.6  355  40 21   6.0   3.3
 19000 -29.9 -21.8  290   6  3   6.0   3.3 | -28.9 -20.0  350  33 17   6.1   3.3
 18500 -29.0 -20.2  285   6  3   6.0   3.3 | -28.0 -18.4  345  26 13   6.1   3.3
 18000 -28.1 -18.6  280   6  3   6.1   3.3 | -27.1 -16.8  340  19 10   6.2   3.4
 17500 -27.2 -17.0  280   7  3   5.1   2.8 | -26.3 -15.3  330  14  7   4.3   2.4
 17000 -26.5 -15.7  275   7  4   5.1   2.8 | -25.6 -14.1  315  10  5   4.5   2.5
 16500 -25.7 -14.3  275   7  4   5.3   2.9 | -24.9 -12.8  290   8  4   4.6   2.5
 16000 -24.5 -12.1  280   7  3   5.5   3.0 | -23.9 -11.0  255   8  4   4.5   2.5
 15500 -23.6 -10.5  280   6  3   5.7   3.1 | -23.2  -9.8  240   9  5   5.3   2.9
 15000 -22.8  -9.0  285   6  3   5.7   3.1 | -22.4  -8.3  235   9  5   5.2   2.9
 14500 -21.9  -7.4  290   6  3   6.1   3.3 | -21.6  -6.9  230  10  5   5.9   3.2
 14000 -21.0  -5.8  295   7  3   6.2   3.4 | -20.7  -5.3  230   9  5   6.1   3.3
 13500 -20.1  -4.2  300   7  4   6.2   3.4 | -19.8  -3.6  230   9  4   6.6   3.6
 13000 -19.1  -2.4  300   8  4   6.1   3.4 | -18.7  -1.7  240   8  4   6.9   3.8
 12500 -18.2  -0.8  300   8  4   5.9   3.2 | -17.7   0.1  245   7  4   6.9   3.8
 12000 -17.4   0.7  300   9  5   5.7   3.1 | -16.7   1.9  240   8  4   6.9   3.8
 11500 -16.5   2.3  300  10  5   5.3   2.9 | -15.6   3.9  235  10  5   6.4   3.5
 11000 -15.8   3.6  295  10  5   5.0   2.8 | -14.7   5.5  215  14  7   6.2   3.4
 10500 -15.1   4.8  295   9  5   4.9   2.7 | -13.9   7.0  205  18 10   5.2   2.9
 10250 -14.7   5.5  290   9  4   4.7   2.6 | -13.5   7.7  200  21 11   4.6   2.5
 10000 -14.4   6.1  290   8  4   5.0   2.8 | -13.1   8.4  200  23 12   5.5   3.0
  9750 -13.9   7.0  285   7  4   6.4   3.5 | -12.7   9.1  190  31 16   6.9   3.8
  9500 -13.4   7.9  280   7  3   7.0   3.8 | -12.2  10.0  190  39 20   6.7   3.7
  9250 -12.9   8.8  275   6  3   6.6   3.6 | -11.7  10.9  185  45 23   6.5   3.6
  9000 -12.4   9.7  270   5  3   6.8   3.7 | -11.2  11.8  185  50 26   6.2   3.4
  8750 -11.9  10.6  260   4  2   7.7   4.2 | -10.7  12.7  185  56 29   7.5   4.1
  8500 -11.3  11.7  250   4  2   8.3   4.6 | -10.1  13.8  180  58 30   8.8   4.8
  8250 -10.7  12.7  245   4  2   8.4   4.6 |  -9.5  14.9  180  61 31   8.7   4.8
  8000 -10.1  13.8  235   4  2   7.6   4.2 |  -8.8  16.2  180  63 33   7.8   4.3
  7750  -9.5  14.9  220   4  2   7.4   4.0 |  -8.3  17.1  180  64 33   8.7   4.8
  7500  -8.9  16.0  215   4  2   8.3   4.6 |  -7.5  18.5  180  64 33  10.4   5.7
  7250  -8.3  17.1  210   4  2   8.3   4.5 |  -6.8  19.8  180  64 33  10.1   5.5
  7000  -7.7  18.1  205   4  2   7.1   3.9 |  -6.1  21.0  180  65 33   8.7   4.8
  6750  -7.3  18.9  200   4  2   4.7   2.6 |  -5.4  22.3  180  64 33   9.3   5.1
  6500  -7.0  19.4  205   4  2   4.1   2.2 |  -4.6  23.7  180  64 33  11.2   6.1
  6250  -6.7  19.9  205   4  2   1.8   1.0 |  -3.8  25.2  180  64 33  10.7   5.9
  6000  -6.7  19.9  200   4  2  -0.3  -0.2 |  -3.0  26.6  180  64 33  11.0   6.0
  5750  -6.8  19.8  200   4  2  -1.2  -0.7 |  -2.2  28.0  180  64 33   9.5   5.2
  5500  -7.0  19.4  200   4  2  -3.5  -1.9 |  -1.5  29.3  180  64 33  13.5   7.4

           02/26/2017 at 1400 MST          |       02/26/2017 at 1700 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +7.5        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +6.8
CINH...    -0.4    K Index...  -8.3        | CINH...    -0.6    K Index...  -7.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.6 -68.1  230  36 18   0.5   0.3 | -56.2 -69.2  230  36 18   0.3   0.2
 45000 -54.9 -66.8  240  34 17   0.5   0.3 | -55.7 -68.3  240  35 18   0.3   0.2
 40000 -56.1 -69.0  255  30 15  -1.2  -0.6 | -57.0 -70.6  255  34 17  -1.2  -0.6
 38000 -56.8 -70.2  265  28 15  -1.2  -0.7 | -57.6 -71.7  260  33 17  -1.0  -0.6
 36000 -56.2 -69.2  285  26 14   1.1   0.6 | -57.4 -71.3  270  31 16   0.5   0.3
 34000 -55.5 -67.9  305  28 14   1.1   0.6 | -57.0 -70.6  280  30 16   0.6   0.3
 32000 -53.7 -64.7  320  31 16   4.2   2.3 | -54.6 -66.3  295  30 15   5.5   3.0
 30000 -51.1 -60.0  335  36 19   4.3   2.3 | -51.3 -60.3  305  31 16   5.5   3.0
 29000 -49.5 -57.1  340  39 20   6.8   3.8 | -49.4 -56.9  310  31 16   7.4   4.1
 28000 -47.5 -53.5  340  42 22   6.8   3.7 | -47.1 -52.8  315  32 16   7.4   4.1
 27000 -45.5 -49.9  345  45 23   6.8   3.7 | -44.9 -48.8  320  33 17   7.4   4.1
 26000 -43.4 -46.1  345  49 25   7.2   4.0 | -42.7 -44.9  320  33 17   7.6   4.2
 25000 -41.2 -42.2  350  49 25   7.5   4.1 | -40.4 -40.7  325  32 17   7.7   4.2
 24000 -38.9 -38.0  350  49 25   7.5   4.1 | -38.1 -36.6  325  31 16   7.7   4.2
 23000 -36.6 -33.9  350  49 25   7.7   4.2 | -35.8 -32.4  325  29 15   7.6   4.2
 22000 -34.3 -29.7  350  40 21   7.8   4.3 | -33.5 -28.3  320  26 13   7.5   4.1
 21000 -32.0 -25.6  345  31 16   7.8   4.3 | -31.2 -24.2  315  23 12   7.5   4.1
 20000 -29.2 -20.6  340  23 12   6.5   3.5 | -29.0 -20.2  310  20 10   6.7   3.7
 19500 -28.3 -18.9  335  21 11   6.4   3.5 | -27.5 -17.5  305  18  9   6.7   3.7
 19000 -27.3 -17.1  335  19 10   6.4   3.5 | -26.5 -15.7  300  17  9   6.7   3.7
 18500 -26.3 -15.3  330  18  9   6.3   3.5 | -25.5 -13.9  295  16  8   6.7   3.7
 18000 -25.4 -13.7  325  16  8   5.4   3.0 | -24.5 -12.1  285  15  8   6.3   3.5
 17500 -24.8 -12.6  315  15  7   4.2   2.3 | -23.6 -10.5  285  14  7   6.0   3.3
 17000 -24.1 -11.4  310  13  7   4.1   2.3 | -22.7  -8.9  280  14  7   5.9   3.2
 16500 -23.6 -10.5  300  12  6   3.2   1.8 | -21.9  -7.4  280  13  7   4.9   2.7
 16000 -23.1  -9.6  290  12  6   3.2   1.7 | -21.2  -6.2  280  13  7   5.0   2.7
 15500 -22.5  -8.5  285  11  6   5.0   2.8 | -20.4  -4.7  280  12  6   5.0   2.7
 15000 -21.7  -7.1  285  11  5   5.2   2.8 | -19.7  -3.5  280  12  6   5.0   2.7
 14500 -20.9  -5.6  285  10  5   6.1   3.3 | -18.9  -2.0  280  12  6   5.0   2.7
 14000 -20.0  -4.0  290  10  5   6.5   3.6 | -18.2  -0.8  275  11  6   5.0   2.7
 13500 -19.0  -2.2  290  10  5   6.4   3.5 | -17.5   0.5  275  11  6   5.1   2.8
 13000 -18.1  -0.6  290  10  5   6.3   3.5 | -16.7   1.9  265  10  5   5.2   2.9
 12500 -17.1   1.2  285  10  5   6.2   3.4 | -15.9   3.4  260  10  5   5.9   3.3
 12000 -16.2   2.8  265   9  5   6.0   3.3 | -15.0   5.0  240  10  5   6.5   3.6
 11500 -15.3   4.5  240  10  5   7.2   4.0 | -14.0   6.8  225  11  6   7.4   4.1
 11000 -14.1   6.6  210  15  8   8.1   4.4 | -12.8   9.0  210  14  7   8.0   4.4
 10500 -12.9   8.8  195  20 10   8.2   4.5 | -11.6  11.1  200  16  8   8.1   4.4
 10250 -12.3   9.9  195  21 11   8.0   4.4 | -11.0  12.2  200  15  8   7.8   4.3
 10000 -11.7  10.9  195  21 11   9.0   5.0 | -10.4  13.3  195  14  7   9.0   4.9
  9750 -11.0  12.2  190  29 15  10.1   5.5 |  -9.7  14.5  190  21 11  10.2   5.6
  9500 -10.2  13.6  185  37 19   9.1   5.0 |  -8.9  16.0  185  27 14   9.4   5.2
  9250  -9.6  14.7  185  40 20   8.8   4.8 |  -8.2  17.2  185  32 16   9.5   5.2
  9000  -8.9  16.0  185  43 22   8.3   4.5 |  -7.6  18.3  185  36 19   8.4   4.6
  8750  -8.3  17.1  185  48 25   8.3   4.6 |  -7.0  19.4  185  36 19   8.0   4.4
  8500  -7.7  18.1  185  50 26   9.1   5.0 |  -6.3  20.7  185  39 20   8.9   4.9
  8250  -7.0  19.4  180  52 27   9.0   4.9 |  -5.7  21.7  180  43 22   8.9   4.9
  8000  -6.3  20.7  180  54 28   8.6   4.7 |  -5.0  23.0  180  47 24   8.4   4.6
  7750  -5.7  21.7  180  50 26   9.3   5.1 |  -4.4  24.1  180  50 26   8.6   4.7
  7500  -4.9  23.2  180  53 27  10.2   5.6 |  -3.7  25.3  180  52 27   9.4   5.1
  7250  -4.2  24.4  180  57 29  10.2   5.6 |  -3.0  26.6  180  54 28   9.2   5.1
  7000  -3.4  25.9  180  60 31   9.2   5.1 |  -2.3  27.9  180  55 28   9.1   5.0
  6750  -2.8  27.0  180  56 29   9.4   5.2 |  -1.6  29.1  180  56 29   9.6   5.2
  6500  -2.0  28.4  180  58 30  10.6   5.8 |  -0.9  30.4  180  57 29  10.1   5.5
  6250  -1.2  29.8  180  60 31  10.5   5.7 |  -0.1  31.8  180  58 30  10.0   5.5
  6000  -0.4  31.3  180  59 30  11.3   6.2 |   0.6  33.1  180  58 30  10.6   5.8
  5750   0.4  32.7  180  55 28   9.5   5.2 |   1.4  34.5  180  59 30   9.6   5.3
  5500   1.2  34.2  180  59 30  12.9   7.1 |   2.1  35.8  180  58 30   8.1   4.4
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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