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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 031454
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015

The deep convection associated with Andres continues to shrink in
size and is limited to the northeastern semicircle.  Dvorak
estimates correspondingly have fallen with a blend of the ADT,
SAB, and TAFB numbers indicating an intensity of about 50 kt.
Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it
is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable
air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear.  Steady
weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by
Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days.  The
official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable
intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous
advisory.

Andres is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt, primarily due to
steering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast.
However, the cyclone will be situated Thursday and Friday within a
col region with little steering flow and Andres should
meander.  In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should
move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large
circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east.  The official track
forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track
guidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly
clustered.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 20.0N 125.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 20.1N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 19.7N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 19.0N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 18.4N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea



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