National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151849
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
249 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will start the week with values some ten degrees
above normal. Unsettled weather returns Wednesday and Thursday,
with cooler air arriving for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- The last showers/storms exit by afternoon south of I-70
- Warm weather continues with mid 60s to upper 70s
-----------------------------------------------------------------

A weak frontal zone remains perched near the Mason-Dixon line,
and has served to focus convective development late this
morning across nrn WV, where hail up to half dollar-size was
observed.

The favorable convective environment is slowly shifting swd this
afternoon, with storms most likely to affect Tucker County thru
4-5pm. The potential for severe weather will continue to
decrease as thermodynamics increasingly become unfavorable to
support the growth of large hail.

NBM MaxT for today was modified a bit owing to the presence of
the frontal zone, which will become over-diffuse in the ensemble
depiction of MaxT. Observed temps to the north of the boundary
were cooler than depicted while those to the south of the
boundary were warmer than depicted.

Benign weather is expected overnight with high confidence, with
generally clear sky anticipated until just prior to sunrise.
Despite the sunny, warm day, radiational cooling will be favored
overnight, with minima falling possibly to the upper 30s-lower
40s north of I-80, with mid 40s-low 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return late Tuesday through Thursday
- Temperature remains above average
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The weather pattern thru mid-week will be transitional, with
today`s upper ridge shifting ewd and increasing influence in the
upper Ohio Valley by a deep low advancing from the north-central
CONUS.

The stalled frontal zone could potentially be a focus for
isolated to scattered showers again Tue afternoon, mainly along
and south of the Mason-Dixon line, but upper-level support will
be questionable as there remains considerable uncertainty in the
precise ewd progress of the upper low from the nrn Plains. The
most-likely timing will see the boundary begin to retreat nwd
Tue night as low pressure progresses toward the Great Lakes, at
which point chances for showers/storms will increase late Tue
night.

This boundary and the increasing influence of the approaching
upper-level low will focus broad coverage of showers and storms
on Wed, especially to the north of the boundary where warm
advection-driven precipitation is likely. Within the warm
sector, precipitation may be more limited initially, but broad
coverage is likely by Wed afternoon. There is a low probability
of severe weather, but the degree of destabilization is
uncertain owing to potential for early development and broad
coverage of showers and storms.

Rain on Wed night will shift ewd on Thu as the upper trough axis
swings thru the region and out of the forecast area by Thu
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures return closer to normal by the end of the week
- Potential for overnight temps to be cold enough for frost Sun
  and Mon mornings
-------------------------------------------------------------------

General expectation for the weekend is that broad troughing
lingers in the ern CONUS and highly amplified ridging develops
in the wrn CONUS.

A high degree of uncertainty is evident in ensemble cluster
analysis for the weekend, driven by potential for the wrn ridge
to develop farther ewd than the ensemble mean, and the ern
trough axis to be deeper than the mean, leading to greater
amplitude of the ridge/trough pattern.

This uncertainty could lead to slightly cooler temperature than
the mean might suggest, but regardless will support a trend
toward normal (and even below-normal) temperature late in the
forecast. In fact, the mean minima Sun and Mon mornings
currently shows temp readings in the 30s in many areas, some
below freezing. If the more-amplified pattern comes to pass,
these cold minima could spread farther swd into areas where the
growing season has begun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period. The few
thunderstorms that developed over northern West Virginia over
the past couple hours have shifted off to the southeast. We
could still see isolated redevelopment occur through this
afternoon over those same areas, though opted to remove the
mention of thunder from MGW given the greater uncertainty
surrounding potential redevelopment and the fact that coverage
would be very isolated even if it does occur.

Expect wind generally out of the north or northwest around 7 to
10 knots to prevail this afternoon before settling and becoming
more variable overnight tonight.

.Outlook...
VFR will prevail until restriction potential returns late
Tuesday and Wednesday with approaching low pressure.
Restrictions are possible into Thursday under a subsequent upper
trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kramar
NEAR TERM...Kramar
SHORT TERM...Kramar
LONG TERM...Kramar
AVIATION...Cermak