537
FXUS63 KLBF 100910
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm to near and above normal levels through the
weekend and into early next week

- No widespread frost/freeze anticipated for the next week

- Generally lower end chances (<50%) of moisture periodically over
the next several days with a couple times of greater potential...
Sunday afternoon (south) and Tuesday evening (fairly widespread)

- Severe weather threat remains low for the time being

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Nebraska is caught between a closed upper low centered near the
Great Basin and a deep trough over the Great Lakes, resulting in a
relative minima of forcing aloft. At the surface, the state lies on
the eastern periphery of high pressure spanning the Rocky Mountains.
A low centered over the Upper Midwest will drag a weak cool front
through the eastern stretches of the state today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Today and tonight... Not much change synoptically is anticipated
today as the upper low stays put near Sin City and the trough
remains anchored over the Lakes. Despite the approaching cool front
and a steady northwesterly breeze, weak warm air advection at H85
actually kicks in across the western CWA. Temp changes over the last
24 hours are noted at 3-4C in the west and about +1C to the east.
Used a general model blend for max temps to line up near the NBM
mean. Forecast values range form mid 60s northwest to lower 70s
north central to mid 70s far southwest. A ribbon of mid-level
moisture will also accompany the surface front as a weak impulse at
H7 rounds the main trough. Not expecting any precip, aside from
perhaps a quick sprinkle, with the fropa as soundings suggest near
inverted-V soundings. Heading into tonight, the surface high expands
across the northern Plains in the wake of the front. Clear skies and
light west winds will allow for efficient boundary layer decoupling.
The limiting factor into frost potential will be the westerly
downslope flow at H85 and continued warm air advection. Most spots
should hold in the upper 30s to lower 40s for min temps.

Tomorrow into tomorrow night... The closed upper low drifts east to
the Four Corners and begins to absorb into the main southern stream.
While no significant surface features are nearby, precip chances
increase later in the day and into the evening for southern
Nebraska. Southerly low level return flow transitions to an upslope
regime (mainly in CO/KS), but the overall steering flow directs that
energy toward southwest Neb. Isentropic upglide takes hold by mid-
late afternoon, and low level moisture advection increases toward
nighttime, partly shown by dew points rising into the mid 40s. Most
of the forcing should remain to the south/west of the CWA, but think
a few rain showers or thundershowers should survive into areas near
and south of I-80. As for temps, early sunshine and the southerly
winds should help push highs into the mid/upper 70s for a good chunk
of the CWA. Normal highs for this time of year are right around 70.
Lows will be a bit milder than tonight due to increased cloud cover
with values in the mid/upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The weather pattern becomes relatively more active the latter half
of the weekend as the upper low shifts east further onto the High
Plains. An accompanying surface low spins up in the lee of the
Rockies and drags a trough across the central Plains. This
combination, along with the increased moisture advection, should
result in scattered showers and storms on Sunday, especially for
areas south of Hwy 2. Thunder parameters of mid-level lapse rates
around 6.5 C/km, MUCAPE <1000 j/kg, and deep layer shear <25 kts
should limit the severe potential. The vicinity of the upper low
will result in continued low end PoP (<30%) around on Monday, while
a cold front presents a more significant and widespread shot of
moisture on Tuesday. A return to low end PoP rounds out the workweek
as a transient upper trough crosses the central Plains. For highs,
values should stay in the 70s Sunday and Monday, but make a run for
80 on Tuesday as southerly flow kicks into gear before the front.
The threat of frost and freeze appears low through next week as lows
hold in the upper 30s or 40s. Given the average last 36F reading for
North Platte is May 16 and for Valentine is May 20, any potential in
the near future will be monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hour period. Winds
will be out of the northwest around 5 to 10 kts overnight and
increase to 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Gomez