580
FXUS64 KTSA 070545
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will
pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few
hours. Otherwise, squall line will sweep across much of the area
except possibly far southeast Oklahoma overnight, with damaging
winds and some embedded tornado threat. Made minor changes to pops
over the next few hours, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire
up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves
through the area as well.

Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend
with the approach of a mid-level shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
TSRA had cleared KBVO and VFR elements are expected to prevail at
that site for the valid period. TSRA at KTUL/KRVS to end early
in the period, and may be followed with a brief period of MVFR
cigs. From there, VFR elements are expected to prevail for the
remainder of the period. More uncertainty to timing/duration of
convection at KMLC so will just add a tempo group for a few hours
from 07z-09z and will include a period of MVFR cigs through 15z.
VFR elements to prevail for the remainder of the period. Similar
time frame and like elements expected across the AR sites, though
tempo groups at KFSM will go an hour or so later. Expect VFR
elements to prevail after 15z at the AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  83  53 /  10  10  30   0
FSM   86  65  87  57 /  10   0  60  40
MLC   85  66  86  56 /  10   0  30  20
BVO   81  56  81  48 /  10  10  20   0
FYV   83  61  83  51 /  10  10  70  30
BYV   82  59  82  53 /  10   0  70  30
MKO   81  61  84  53 /  10  10  50  20
MIO   80  58  80  50 /  10  10  60  10
F10   82  62  85  53 /  10  10  30  10
HHW   84  66  85  59 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23