Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 082156
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Critical Fire Weather Conditions will continue until 5 PM with
winds on the decline...

High wind gusts appear to be over and plan to take down the high
wind warning with the afternoon package.  However strong gusts to
around 40 to 45 mph will be possible through early evening before
diminishing after 5 PM.  Plan to maintain the Red Flag Warning for
all of the southeast plains until then.  Winds decrease quickly
overnight though will still remain breezy across far eastern plains
where some gusts to 20 to 25 mph will persist until at least
midnight.

Saturday will be a few degrees warmer and less windy as the western
U.S. upper ridge expands eastward.  Dew points will still be quite
low which will put relative humidity values below the 15 percent
critical fire weather threshold.  However given the lighter winds,
no fire weather highlights are anticipated. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Saturday night-Sunday...Warm and dry weather remains in the offing
through the weekend with generally weak west to northwest flow
aloft, as high amplitude upper level ridging continues to build into
the Great Basin. Warming aloft and the downslope flow will keep
temperatures above seasonal levels, with highs on Sunday in the mid
50s to mid 60s across the lower elevations, in 40s and 50s across
the higher terrain, and mainly in the 30s at the peaks.

Sunday night-Tuesday...A short wave digging down the back side of
the long wave ridge across the Great Basin will increase winds aloft
Sunday night and Monday, as it continues into the Upper Midwest.
This will allow for breezy north to northwest winds to develop
across across the plains, most notable closer to the Kansas border,
Monday afternoon and evening, with dry conditions and only slightly
cooler temperatures expected across the area. Dry conditions
continue on Tuesday with temperatures warming back to near Sunday
levels under a generally light downslope wind regime.

Wednesday-Friday...Lower confidence remains for the rest of the
forecast, with longer range models continuing to differ on how far
west, along with the strength of more short wave energy digging down
the backside of the upper ridge. For now, model consensus keeps the
area dry through the period, with temperatures generally above
seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 256 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

VFR cigs and vis expected at the taf sites over the next 24 hours.
Main concern will be the winds which will continue to gust to around
25 kts from the NW until 00-01z.  Winds will be much lighter on
Saturday and will shift out of the southeast at both KCOS and KPUB
around 10 kts during the afternoon.  Winds will remain light and
variable at KALS on Saturday. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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