Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290524
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATING FORECAST TO ADJUST MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD...AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ALSO BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON THE FRONT END OF THE
DATABASE. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...

CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER S EL PASO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
T/TD SPREADS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 40F...SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE STILL OVER CO/WY BORDER MOVG SSE.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MTNS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. GUIDANCE
INDICATED ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER THIS EVENING BUT WITH ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZED...THIS LOOKS LESS LIKELY. MAIN THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON FROM PUEBLO SOUTH AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. PRECIP SHOULD END LATE THIS
EVENING.

TOMORROW...

WITH LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING TOMORROW...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION...WITH THE PLAINS
REMAINING DRY. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH DAILY HEATING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT FOR
DIURNAL MT CONVECTION...AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS. AFTN MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100F FOR THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...THIS LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AND EDGE TO THE WEST STARTING LATE TUE...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE N
ROCKIES AND THE DAKOTAS SOME TIME ON WED...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPS AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT INCREASED PCPN ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THE QUESTION IS WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH MEANS CONTINUED WARM TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND INCREASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST IN THE EVE AND
LATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO
THE WEST...WHILE ACROSS THE CWA A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED WILL MEAN
UPSLOPE LLVL FLOW BOTH THU AND FRI. BOTH DAYS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL START TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE STATE...HEATING THINGS UP
ONCE AGAIN AS WELL AS RESTRICTING CONVECTION BACK TO THE HTS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND
OUT OF THE KPUB TAF SITE BY THE 06Z START TIME. VFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH
THE RAINFALL...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ITS FORMATION. FOR KALS...COULD SEE
SOME PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT PROBABILITY
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH KALS SEEING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS BEGINNING AROUND 21Z.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT


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