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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180306 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
904 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 322 WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SE PLAINS ATTM. ALSO UPDATED POPS FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HELPING TO FIRE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ATTM. RADAR ALSO INDICATING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE WALDO BURN SCAR BECOMING LESS INTENSE
OVER THE PAST FEW SCANS. GAGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF OF THE SCAR
INDICATING BETWEEN 0.02 AND 0.14 INCHES OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH
12 HOUR TOTALS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SCAR BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.47
INCHES. FURTHER EAST...HAVE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS WITH LAA
AND LHX ASOS REPORTING 1.83 AND 1.51 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THIS COULD BE
SUPPORTED BY A STRING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NRN CO.  SFC
DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF INTO THE
30S...WITH EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  WITH CAPES
INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS SPC
MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1400
J/KG...FAVORING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.   LCL`S LOOK A LITTLE HIGH
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL.

ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO
OVERNIGHT...DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD.  KIOWA COUNTY GETS CLIPPED
BY ONE ACCORDING TO NAM12...WHEREAS GFS KEEPS MAJORITY OF QPF ACROSS
SE CO THROUGH 06Z AS SE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP...THEN PUSHES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES THROUGH 12Z WED.  WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ADVECT HIGHER
DEW POINTS BACK WESTWARD FOR TUESDAY LEADING TO GREATER CAPE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.
PROBLEM IS MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A BIT OF A CAP...PARTICULARLY
FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT HIGH RES
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BREAKING BY LATE MORNING.  CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS OF AROUND 40-50 KTS SHOULD
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  WITH LCLS A LITTLE LOWER THERE WILL BE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL WINDS PULL AROUND MORE TO AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITIES.  ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL ON THE
WALDO BURN SCAR.  HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS IN MODELS ARE GENERALLY UNDER
FLASH FLOOD CRITERIA (.50) SO THINK IT MIGHT BE ANOTHER HIT OR MISS
PROPOSITION.  WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A LOOK AT HIGH RES MODELS
AND RE-EXAMINE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

MEANWHILE...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH MUCH LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. -KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO HOT...DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
PROMINENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN PLACE ONLY FOR KS/CO BORDER AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. FUELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS REMAIN CRITICAL. ELSEWHERE...THE FINE FUELS ON THE PLAINS
MAY NOT BE CRITICAL DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE SPOTTY CONVECTION...THE
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FUELS INFORMATION
BEFORE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING. THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH CONTINUED HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE WINDS DON`T LOOK AS STRONG THURSDAY AS
WEDNESDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH WARM...DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)

KCOS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TSRA TO AFFECT THE
TAF SITE.  ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR CATEGORY.

KPUB WILL ALSO SEE A THREAT FOR TSRA IN THE 21Z-24Z TIME FRAME.
AGAIN...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY.

MORE HIT OR MISS POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KALS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING...THUS WILL ONLY CARRY A VCTS.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z...AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE KCOS AND KPUB
TAF SITES.  THESE CIGS SHOULD BREAK TOWARDS LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT