Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171129
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
429 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 429 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Warmer air already making an appearance along and west of I-25
early this morning, as surface high pressure begins to retreat
eastward into the srn Mississippi Valley. As of 11z, Canon City and
Walsenburg have jumped into the lower 30s, while single digits
above/below zero lurk just east over the plains. Not seeing any fog
or stratus over nrn NM or in the San Luis Valley on latest GOES-16
fog imagery, so will remove mention from the the forecast for the
Valley, though some very patchy/shallow ground fog could briefly
develop along the Rio Grande for a couple hours around sunrise. For
today, air mass across the area begins to warm as surface high
retreats and modest w-nw flow develops. Suspect a few 50f readings
will return to the I-25 corridor, with mainly 30s/40s across the
mountains and interior valleys, while eastern plains reach the
mid/upper 40s. Overnight, lee trough deepens with weak upper wave
moving across the region, which should lead to slightly stronger
winds and warmer mins at most locations as mixing will be better and
inversions weaker.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 429 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Relatively minor adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with main longer term meteorological issues continuing
to be the amount of impact that system will provide the forecast
district this weekend as well as increased elevated/localized
fire weather potential by Friday.

Recent longer term computer simulations, forecast model
soundings and PV/Precipitable water analysis still suggest that
varying degrees of upper ridging will be noted over the forecast
district from Thursday into Friday, allowing for dry and
unseasonably warm meteorological conditions to prevail over the
CWA during this time.

Also, increasing winds in combination with the warm temperatures
and existing dry conditions will be capable of producing
localized/elevated fire weather concerns at times, favoring
eastern locations by Friday. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor
latest trends closely and issue fire weather highlights if
needed/warranted as this potential 5th period event nears.

It still appears that unsettled, cooler and gusty conditions
should be experienced over the majority of the forecast district
by the weekend as next system impacts the region.

At this time, it still appears that the highest potential for more
widespread precipitation(including some accumulating snow) should
be experienced from later Saturday night into Sunday as passing
closed upper low interacts with relatively moist northerly
surface surge during this time-frame. As always, WFO Pueblo will
closely monitor the latest trends, strength and track of this
potential system closely and issue winter weather highlights if
needed/warranted as this potential 7th to 8th period event/system
approaches southern Colorado.

Regarding winds, still anticipate that the highest potential for
stronger winds during the longer term should be realized from
Friday into Monday.

Outside of the Continental Divide/Central Mountains(where
generally light snow will be possible at times), project that the
remainder of the forecast district will experience dry conditions
in tandem with temperatures running near seasonal averages during
Monday and Tuesday as northwesterly upper flow develops over
southern Colorado.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term are still expected to
occur Thursday and especially Friday(where maximum temperatures
on Friday are projected to be nearing and/or exceeding 70F over
many eastern locations). Coolest temperatures during the longer
term are anticipated Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 429 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions expected at all terminals the next 24 hrs. Still
watching KALS for some brief ground fog early this morning, though
satellite and obs suggest nothing has formed as of 11z. Will remove
fog mention from the 12z taf, and monitor closely obs/satellite/web
cams for any shallow ground fog forming along the Rio Grande toward
sunrise.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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