Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201736
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1036 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Lowered Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for
the Mountains. Heavy snow is over. Snow showers will continue at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 517 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

...Slick Roads Out There...

Storm system is headed east but still producing snow around the
region this morning.  Roads across the Pikes Peak Region, the
Highway 50 corridor and many other areas of southern Colorado are
really slick this morning. Generally 1-3 inches of snow fell across
the Pikes Peak Region and Highway 50 corridor last evening as
forcing with the main upper trough moved across the area.  Light
flurries continue in many areas at this hour.  With temperatures
being so cold, generally in single digits or teens everywhere, the
roads are icy and slick.  If hitting the roads this morning, get
started early.  You will need extra time to travel.

Heavy snow continues over the San Juan Mountains this morning on the
back end of the storm.  This area has seen heavy snow all night.  It
will continue for just a few more hours this morning and then taper
off.  A Winter Storm Warning continues for that area until 8 AM MST.
Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories also remain in
effect until 8 AM for the ranges farther north along the Continental
Divide including the La Garita, Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges.
Accumulations along these ranges have been less but still
significant.  Finally, a Winter Weather Advisory also remains in
effect until 8 AM for the higher elevations of the Sangre de Cristo
Range and Pikes Peak where mostly light snow continues at this hour.

Elsewhere, flurries and patchy fog will continue for a while yet
this morning before coming to end.  Roads will remain slick during
the morning hours.  Then, the challenge becomes the temperature
forecast.  Shallow arctic air is firmly entrenched across the plains
at this time.  The highest resolution models we have say that it
will likely remain in entrenched for most of the plains through the
day.  It will show some retreat around the edges, such as along and
west of the I-25 corridor from south of Colorado City down through
Walsenburg and Trinidad.  Also, areas along and south of the Raton
Ridge may see some retreat of the arctic air.  But for most of the
rest of the plains, it looks to remain in the mid teens to mid 20s
today.  The mountains and high valleys are, or will be, west of the
arctic air this afternoon.  Those areas should see temperatures
climb to more typical levels for this time of year, aided by much
milder southwesterly winds.

After, the heavier snow tapers off over along the Continental Divide
this morning, snow showers will continue at times through the day
into the evening.  Local additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
will be possible with that activity.

Later today and tonight, we could see a new round of snow showers
develop over the Pikes Peak Region as a weak disturbance moves
across.  Shouldn`t be much but could see some local accumulations up
to about an inch.  Elsewhere, really doesn`t look like much, if any,
accumulation but could be some spotty flurries again as the arctic
air will still be around.  Additionally, the plains could see fog
redevelop tonight.  So, once again, with the fog, flurries and cold
temperatures, the roads could end up slick in spots for the morning
commute Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 517 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

Primary meteorological concerns during the longer term include
but are not limited to pops, qpf/snow amounts, temperatures and
gusty winds/elevated fire weather concerns at times.

Recent computer simulations, PV/Precipitable Water analysis, and
forecast model soundings indicate that tranquil meteorological
conditions should prevail Wednesday morning in advance of unsettled
conditions developing over the Continental Divide and higher
terrain locations from later Wednesday into Thursday night as next
system impacts southern Colorado. Several inches of snow and
areas of blowing snow will be possible over these locations(favoring
the San Juan mountains) during this time-frame.

Elsewhere across lower elevations from Wednesday into Thursday
night, project basically dry conditions in combination with
moderating temperatures by Thursday.

Meteorological focus then shifts to closed upper low initially
located over far northwestern Arizona at 12z Friday, which shifts
to near the 4-corners region by 06Z Saturday and then moves into
southwestern Kansas by 18z Saturday before moving across southern
Iowa by 06Z Sunday.

This system is projected to bring another round of active
weather(in the form of increased pops/qpf, snow/heavy at times,
gusty winds and below seasonal temperatures) over many sections of
the forecast district Friday and Saturday.

At this time, the highest potential for accumulating snow with
this next system should should be realized over the Continental
Divide and mountains Friday, before activity moves into eastern
sections from Friday night into Saturday. WFO Pueblo will closely
monitor the track and intensity of this system closely.

Then(outside of the central mountains where snow will be possible
from Sunday into Sunday night), a return to more tranquil
conditions should be noted from Saturday night into Monday as
northwesterly to zonal upper flow develops over the region.

The highest potential for more widespread/gusty winds over the
forecast district should be noted from Wednesday night into
Thursday night and then again during the weekend with elevated
fire weather conditions also possible Sunday.

Finally, below seasonal maximum temperatures in combination with
generally near to below seasonal minimum temperatures are
anticipated during the longer term with coolest temperatures
expected from Wednesday into Thursday morning while warmest
temperatures should be noted Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1025 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018

KCOS...

Low cigs will be a concern later this evening as moist cold
upslope continues. We may also see some snow showers late this
afternoon and early evening at KCOS. Low cigs should develop by
late evening and last into mid morning. For now I have MVFR cigs
in current taf fcst.

KALS...

Breezy SW sfc winds this afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions next
24hrs.

KPUB...

Low cigs... ~OVC020 should last until mid afternoon with higher
cigs thereafter. Low cigs will likely return later this evening
and last into mid morning. MVFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH



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