Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191727
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1027 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 548 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Dry, Mild, High Clouds, Breezy East Slopes Tonight...

Dry westerly flow under a broad ridge of high pressure next 24
hours. High clouds visible in satellite upstream over the Great
Basin will make their way east across the forecast area. This will
result in some high clouds at times. Otherwise, it`s looking dry and
mild by late November standards. After a chilly start this morning,
afternoon highs will rebound to above average levels this afternoon.
Lows tonight will be fairly typical for this time of year.  It may
get a bit breezy in a near the foothills overnight as the flow aloft
increases and surface pressure gradients build along the east slopes
of the mountains.  Gusts to 40 mph possible in favored locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 548 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Still project that basically dry conditions(outside of the
potential for some light snow over portions of the central
mountains Monday night into early Tuesday morning) in combination
with well above seasonal later November temperatures will be
noted over the forecast district during the longer term as varying
degrees of dry northwesterly upper flow/upper ridging and eastern
Colorado lee-side troughing influence southern Colorado from
Monday into next Saturday. In addition, localized/spotty fire
weather concerns will be possible at times.

Recent computer simulations, PV/precipitable water analysis and
forecast model soundings still indicate that light snow will be
possible over portions of the central mountains(primarily from
Monday night into early Tuesday morning), with other locations
of the forecast district remaining dry during the longer term.
Otherwise, gusty winds at times are anticipated from late Monday
into Tuesday, helping to increase localized fire weather
potential. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

It still appears that the warmest temperatures(with maximum and
minimum temperatures running approximately 10F to 25F above later
November climatological averages over many locations) during the
longer term over the forecast district should be experienced
Monday and then again from Wednesday into Friday(with maximum
temperatures challenging 70F over some eastern locations). Coolest
temperatures(although still above climatological averages) are
expected Tuesday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1026 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS.  Winds at the terminal forecast site should generally be
10 kts or less, but will increase Monday afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28



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