Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN CENTERED OVR NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS AFTERNOON...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER AIR
PUSHING EASTWARD ACRS THE STATE. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
MSTR OUT THERE...THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR THE SERN PLAINS WHERE THE MSTR IS
A LITTLE BETTER...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVR THE MTNS. WILL KEEP ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
THE FORECAST ACRS THE AREA THRU THE EVENING HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SEE DECREASING PCPN CHANCES AFTER SUNSET. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW
ALL PCPN ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS SOME PCPN GOING ACRS
MAINLY THE SEN PLAINS INTO THE LATE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO
GO WITH RAP AND HRRR AND END ALL PCPN BY MIDNIGHT IN THE FORECAST.

THE NAM SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUN...BUT THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR AND
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP.  IT SHOULD START OVR
THE MTNS IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ISOLD TO SCT
COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVR THE SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL.  HIGH TEMPS ON SUN WL AGAIN BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...MONSOON CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

THE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH LOOKS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH TO OUR SW WILL
SHIFT INTO ERN OK/TX AS A TROUGH OVER THE PACNW ADVANCES
EWD...AND THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA.

SUN NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING
A LINE/CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER E-CENTRAL CO BY EARLY EVENING
IN A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS MCS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD
DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST QPF TO BE OVER ERN
AL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...WEAK UPSLOPE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTRA TRIGGER FOR MORE
PM STORMS...PROBABLY A BIT MORE COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS THAN ON
PRECEDING DAYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME
MID 90S OVER THE HOT SPOTS ON THE PLAINS.

BY TUESDAY...WILL START TO SEE INCREASING MOISTURE MOVE NWD OVER
WRN CO AS A CUTTOFF DROPS ACROSS THE SRN CA COAST AND THE PACNW
TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INLAND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WELL
THE CUTOFF WILL PHASE WITH THE NRN JET BRANCH...AND THIS WILL
AFFECT HOW MUCH RAIN TO EXPECT OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACNW TROUGH...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS FOR THE CENTRAL MTS/CONTDVD TUE-
WED...AND THEN THE ERN RANGES AND POSSIBLY PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. IF THE CUTOFF GETS PICKED UP SOONER BY THE ADVANCING
TROUGH...WE COULD SEE ENHANCED PRECIP OVER OUR WHOLE CWA. THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING THE LOW AND
PACNW TROUGH...AND WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO OUR AREA FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH
CONSERVATIVE LOW POPS FOR THE PLAINS AND TYPICAL SCT/CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MTS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS GO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MORE
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY FOR THE MTS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT DOUBTFUL THEY
WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH KPUB OR KALS. MAY SEE A FEW TSRA
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTWARD TOWARD KLIC SUN
AFTERNOON...AND WHILE NO VCTS MENTION IN THE KCOS TAF YET...STORMS
MAY BE JUST NORTH OF KCOS FOR A BRIEF TIME AROUND 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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