Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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904
FXUS65 KPUB 091123
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.  A LITTLE BETTER MIXING
TODAY COUPLED WITH WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY.  HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF KLHX WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE. MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY.

LEE TROFFING TONIGHT AND ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES/I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE MILDER SIDE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE A GOOD SEGUE INTO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY. -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES BEING TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND A RELATIVELY
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME LOW GRADE SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OF EARLY
WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO A NORTHERLY SURGE BY LATER
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH ENTERS NORTHERN
IOWA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THEN...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A 1048 MB SURFACE
HIGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT 12Z SATURDAY SHIFTING INTO
OHIO BY 12Z SUNDAY AND HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS WILL PROVIDE(IN TERMS
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW CLOUDS...ETC.) TO THE CWFA(ESPECIALLY
EASTERN PORTIONS)DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
GUSTY WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM LATER
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY(WHERE 60S TO POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S MAY BE REALIZED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON)...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR IFR-LIFR CIGS/VIS AT KALS IN FOG
TONIGHT...BUT MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERFORECASTING THIS POTENTIAL...SO
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.  WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AS LEE TROF
DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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