Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 032050
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

CURRENTLY...WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT
HAS BEEN MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO FAR. THIS HAS MESHED
WELL WITH THE SW MOIST FLOW ALOFT...AS WELL AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT THE MODELS HAD SHOWN WOULD BE PASSING OVER COLORADO TODAY.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE
MID 80S TO 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DROP SOUTH ACROSS WA AND OR OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS...WHILE THE RIDGE OF HI PRES OVER THE CENTRAL US PERSISTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STATE UNDER MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH MONSOON
MOISTURE HELPING TO FEED AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE
CROSS THE STATE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH AND EXIT THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER 8 PM AND DROP OFF COMPLETELY RIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...AND MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER...THOUGH WEAKER...UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO HELP SPARK SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE
MORNING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN. A
MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 70S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

FRIDAY EVENING...

A RATHER STRONG MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING UP A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A THREAT OF EVENING STORMS TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. SOME OF THIS RAIN COULD BE ON THE HEAVY
SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE STEADILY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...

MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA/IDAHO DURING THE DAY.
MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE AND MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIP MAINLY
OCCURRING ALONG THE CONTDVD REGION. WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE
AREA...STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ANY FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MINIMAL
GIVEN THE RATHER QUICK STORM MOTION...BUT IF STORMS WERE TO
TRAIN...THEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...

PACIFIC COOL FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I EXPECT
VERY LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON THIS DAY...WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA
OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LABOR DAY...

MODEST RATHER DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
BRUNT OF MONSOON MSTR SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLD TSRA OVER THE CONTDVD. MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A 2-3F COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...

TROUGHIENESS DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THIS WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE MONSOON MSTR TO CREEP BACK NORTH. POPS THIS DAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLD...BUT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STORM ON THIS DAY. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
MAX TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...

COOLER WEATHER IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
REGION.

LOOKING A BIT FARTHER OUT...

BOTH GFS AND EC GUIDANCE BRING A PRETTY GOOD COOL FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 700 MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS FCST
TO MOVE INTO...OR GET VERY CLOSE TO....COLORADO BY SATURDAY.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...OVER THE NEXT 23
HOURS. THERE IS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VCNTY
FOR ALL OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...SO INCLUDED VCTS
FOR ALL THREE SITES UNTIL 03Z TONIGHT. LOOK FOR BRISK S-SW WINDS
ACROSS THE MTS AND AREAS WEST...WHILE THE E PLAINS WILL EXPERIENCE N-
NW FLOW THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PLAINS AS OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH WASH OVER THE PALMER DVD. LOOK FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE


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