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000
FXUS65 KPUB 211548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
948 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...STARTING THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS
TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT
THIS TIME. SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
WITH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING SLOWLY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUING TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS LESS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH BEST UVV REMAINING EAST OF THE
AREA. CONVECTION TODAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGH BASED AND LESS
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING MEASURABLE RAINFALL...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MORE INVERTED V PROFILES. AT ANY RATE...EXPECTING MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MTS. SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING
WITH THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALL CONVECTION ENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. WARMING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...WARMING UP...

WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER
THE PAC NW ON WED...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS CO. THIS
WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
STATE...WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
NAM...GFS AND EC MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTN AND
EVE...SLANTED MORE TOWARDS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUCH AS THE
CENT MTS AND PALMER DVD. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SFC
HIGH PRES DOWN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND BACKING INTO THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS...WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR THU.

THURSDAY...E-SE SFC FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGHER RH LEVELS FOR
THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES...THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE OVERDONE ON QPF AND PCPN COVERAGE...BUT TRUE AREAL COVERAGE IS A
TOUGH CALL. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE E PLAINS AND BANKING UP AGAINST THE E MTS THROUGH THE AFTN AND
EVE HRS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE PAC
NW OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST...BUT
THE GFS AND EC MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL
SET UP. THE EC KEEPS THE DRYLINE WAVERING BACK INTO CO EACH
DAY...WHILE THE GFS ESSENTIALLY KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CO/KS STATE
LINE AND INTRODUCES UP TO 4 DAYS OF POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED AFTN AND EVE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE FAR E PLAINS EACH DAY...WHILE THE REST OF CWA BAKES WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S. FOR NOW...FEEL THIS IS THE BEST
COURSE WHILE HIGHLIGHTING THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL AS THE WEEKEND
NEARS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
A BIT BETTER. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. STORMS TODAY WILL ALSO BE MORE HIGHER BASED
SUPPORTING MORE WIND AND VIRGA THAN RAINFALL. NOT CONFIDENT ANY
STORMS WILL IMPACT TAF SITES...THOUGH WILL KEEP VCSH AT ALS AND COS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW