Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210533
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

...One system moving out...another moving in...

Currently...

Weather system that brought some rain and snow mainly to areas north
of US50 was located in the Goodland KS region and was continuing to
move east-northeast away from the area. Lingering showers were
noted...mainly over Kiowa county at 2 pm. Elsewhere, skies were
clearing along the I025 corridor. One the west slope, showers were
noted in advance of the next system moving towards the region. Temps
at 2 pm were in the 40s to around 50F just east of the mtns, while
30s and L40s were noted over the rest of the plains. Temps around
freezing were noted in the larger valleys.

Rest of today...

Weather system over the northeast part of the CWA will continue
moving east-northeast and all of the precip should be out of the
region by early evening.

Tonight...

Skies should clear out for the most part across the plains. temps
tonight will cool into the 20s. Areas of patchy fog will be
possible in  the lower arkansas river valley region.

For the mountains, snow shower will continue along the divide the
this evening and will pick up in intensity late this evening into
tonight, especially along sw slopes of the San Juan mtns. Snow will
likely become quite heavy during the early morning hours, and an
additional quick 6 inches of snow is not out of the question.
Central mtns will also see some snow, but will mainly be on the
lighter side. Some snow will affect the Sangre de Cristo range
towards sunrise.

The San Luis valley will see low clouds and fog develop once again
after midnight with snow possible during the early morning hours
prior to sunrise.

Tomorrow...

Broad trough with associated weak closed off circulation at mid
levels will move across the region and will be located vicinity
Raton Nm by early tomorrow evening. Lower level flow will go
northwesterly as the day progresses tomorrow and this will favor the
central mtns by midday. Given the downslope flow over the plains,
not much in the way of any precip is expected at lower elevations
tomorrow, with the best chance being over the CO/NM border region.
/Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

A somewhat active period is expected with significant snow
expected for the mountains of the Continental Divide. Saturday
night an upper low will be moving away from the state to the south
and east, bringing and end to pcpn chances in most area by late
night, although there may be some lingering light snow showers
over the central mtns and possibly ovr the far sern corner of the
state until Sun morning.

Sun is then expected to be a mostly dry day with highs mostly in the
40s acrs the southeast plains and in the 20s and 30s over the high
valley locations.  By evening it looks like some light snow may move
back into the Sawatch, San Juan and La Garita mtns as moisture ahead
of the next system starts to move into CO.  Then by midnight the
snow is expected to become widespread and heavier over the mtns
along the Continental Dvd, with the potential for some light snow to
spread ovr the eastern mtns by Mon morning.

The main upr trof wl be ovr CA and the Pacific NW on Mon, but west
to southwest flow aloft wl continue to stream moisture into wrn CO
which wl keep snow going along the Continental Dvd.  The rest of the
area generally looks dry, although there could be some snow showers
ovr the hyr elevations of the ern mtns.  Much of the area could see
breezy west to southwest winds on Mon.  High temps Mon over the sern
plains should mostly be in the 50s, with 30s to around 40 in the
high valleys.

Mon night the upr trof moves into the Great Basin and then into CO.
Snow will continue along the Continental Dvd, with several more
inches of accumulation.  Snow will also spread acrs the high valleys
and the eastern mtns Mon night, and may spread over the I-25
corridor by Tue morning. There are some model differences as to
where the upr low center wl track on Tue.  The ECMWF shows it about
ovr the northeast CO border midday Tue, while at the same time, the
GFS shows it ovr the border between SD, NE and WY.  The farther south
position of the ECMWF results in a better chance for pcpn over the
sern plains on Tue than what the GFS position shows.  It could be
fairly windy on Tue, and temps wl be cooler.

Tue night the upr low moves off into the midwest with a broad trof
left ovr CO thru Wed night.   There wl also be the possibility of
some lingering light snow showers mainly ovr the mtns.  NW flow
aloft and a relatively weak upr disturbance is then expected to
moves southward ovr CO on Thu which may bring some light snow to
mainly the central mtns.  High temps on Thu should mostly be in the
20s and 30s at lower elevations. Cool, northerly flow aloft is
forecast for Fri ovr the state, along with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1025 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

Areas of stratus and dense fog have developed at KCOS and KPUB
this evening, with LIFR conditions at both terminals as of 05z.
Latest few runs of the HRRR suggest boundary layer flow will
remain weak until 11-12z both sites, with perhaps some weak N-NW
drainage flows beginning to dissipate lower cigs 12z-15z. Will
keep both sites LIFR through the night and into early Sat morning,
though there will likely be a few periods of improved conditions
as stratus may remain rather thin and patchy. Once lower clouds
dissipate, expect VFR conditions from midday Sat evening.

At KALS, low clouds and precip have been slow to form, and have
delayed onset of IFR conditions several hours as radar/satellite
suggests most precip still back west of the divide. Still expect a
period of snow and IFR cigs/vis in roughly the 12-18z time period,
then improving conditions in the afternoon/evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ058-060-
073-075-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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