Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 280517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM AND WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVR THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS THRU THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD NOT BE THAT SLOW MOVING. AS AN
UPR DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WL THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...ALONG WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.

ON FRI AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVR THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MSTR FOR SOME ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR THE HYR TRRN FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  HIGH TEMPS ON FRI ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER...

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY PERSISTENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. DOMINANT FEATURES WILL BE THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S...AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACNW. OUR LOCAL WEATHER
WILL BE DETERMINED BY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE...AND A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...AS THE H5
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SERN AZ AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
MAINLY OVER THE DESERT SW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGIC AVERAGES FOR LATE AUG. BY SUN INTO MON...THE
RIDGE FLATTENS AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES EJECT EWD THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND SRN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING RETURN OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER CO...ALONG WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS
ACROSS OUR AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONTDVD AND
THE MTN AREAS...BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLD-SCT STORMS MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS BOTH SUN AND MON EVE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE PATTERN SHIFTS BACK TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER ONE BY TUE INTO WED
OF NEXT WEEK....AS THE H5 CENTER CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD INTO SE TX
AND THE NRN GULF REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO
WRN CO...AND MAINTAIN THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ACROSS SE CO.
EVENTUALLY THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE PAC TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE WEST COAST AND MORE OF THE EL NINO INFLUENCE KICKS
IN...BUT THE CURRENT PATTERN IS IN NO HURRY TO LEAVE. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERTORM AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW


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