Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 170529
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SKY COVER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 714 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOADED IN LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENTLY...A FEW ECHOES ARE STARTING TO POP UP ON RADAR OVER THE
SAN JUAN RANGE AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.  OTHERWISE QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THE
PLAINS.  HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE MOVE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.  HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STEERING FLOWS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING KEEP THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
ODILE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AZ INTO NM DURING THE DAY THU...AND
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS IN PLACE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A WEAK TSRA OR TWO...BUT OVERALL
TREND FOR THU IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THU AS LOW/MID LEVEL
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO THU NIGHT AS REMNANT LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN COMING FRI AS THE LOW CLIPS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE. MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP FRI AS WELL...WITH ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH HEAVY RAIN
WHILE GFS/NAM KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER NM AND THE TX PANH.
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING
WILL ALSO COMPLICATE MATTERS...ESPECIALLY IF IT ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP/POTENTIALLY HEAVY...WILL
BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRI...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A EADS/LA JUNTA/TRINIDAD LINE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA INTO FRI EVENING...WITH COLD
FRONT AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUE BOTH SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS...WHILE EASTERN PLAINS STAY TOO COOL/STABLE FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA. GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SUGGESTING FAIRLY
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE.
WILL NUDGE UP POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS AND SPREAD TSRA CHANCES TO
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS AS THE USUAL
MODEL STRUGGLES WITH WESTERN CUT-OFFS KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW. ONCE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY SAT...APPEARS MAX TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL BACK TOWARD MID SEPT
AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW


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