Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL COLORADO. HEAVIEST SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER
LAKE COUNTY...WITH WEB CAMS SUGGESTING LOW VISIBILITY IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW FROM LEADVILLE UP TO FREMONT PASS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
MUCH LIGHTER FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD COTTONWOOD AND MONARCH
PASSES...THOUGH STRONG WINDS WERE CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT
BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SEEN FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS
IN THE USUAL LEE SLOPE AND GAP FLOW AREAS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
THE LEE OF RAMPARTS NEAR THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY AND OVER THE UPPER
ARKANSAS VALLEY AT SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA.

OVERNIGHT...OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD MORNING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST. STILL A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF LAKE COUNTY...AND WITH WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH...BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL WILL PERSIST. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE
UNCHANGED. FARTHER EAST...MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
THEN DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP LEE SLOPES AND
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WINDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. STILL NOT EXPECTING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME GUSTS OVER 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF
THE RAMPART RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WINDS
AND BOUTS OF WAVE CLOUDINESS ONCE AGAIN KEEPING READINGS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR.

WEDNESDAY...SNOW ENDS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY AS MOIST
LAYER THINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL STAY DRY...WITH LESS WIND MOST LOCATIONS AS SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND MAIN BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. COMBINATION OF MORE SUN BUT LESS MIXING WILL YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TUE NUMBERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
WARMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS 700MB COLD POOL SHIFTS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FLAT RIDGING
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BACK A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS A BIT
DIFFERENT IN HOW FAR WEST THEY PUSH THE BOUNDARY...WITH AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING COOL...WITH 40S FOR HIGHS UNDER
INCREASING STRATUS. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON WARMING. IF THE FRONT STALLS FURTHER EAST...LOCATIONS
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR COULD BE MUCH WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ON TUESDAY AS THEY UPPER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W-
NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KCOS AND KPUB UNTIL 02Z-
04Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AT KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG...THOUGH HAVEN`T INCLUDED
ANYTHING IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT AS TIMING OF DIMINISHING SURFACE
WINDS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...MAINLY FROM KMYP NORTHWARD. ON
WEDNESDAY...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS SNOW
DIMINISHES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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