Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 201738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

REINITIALIZED SHORT TERM GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

CALM FALL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND EVENTUALLY EJECT TO THE NE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE MTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...AND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY`S VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TONIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SW MTS AND CONTDVD AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST GETS A LITTLE CLOSER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS NR THE KS AND OK BORDER...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES NWD
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...BUT
WILL KEEP POPS SILENT THERE AS THE MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET WX CONTINUES. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

A QUIET WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE CONTDVD REGION...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REST OF
TE MTNS/VALLEYS AND ONLY AN ISOLD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
UNTIL LATE WEEK...AND THEN WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. I AM CONCERNED THAT THE MAX TEMPS WHICH
CAME WITH THE CRH EXTENDED PROCEDURE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND MAY BE A
BIT ON THE COOL SIDE AND BUMPED THEM UP A BIT (AND I WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP MORE IN LATER
FCST...WE MAY SEE TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND).
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WE
MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FIRE WX ISSUES ON THE PLAINS DUE TO CURED
GRASSES LATE WEEK/WEEKEND /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
18Z-03Z. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHEN ENCOUNTERING ANY
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BE
ADVISED THAT PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL RAMP UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



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