Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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986
FXUS65 KPUB 011107
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

Currently...

Clouds were increasing over the western part of the state as another
in a series of disturbances moves towards the region. Virga was
noted on radar over the west slope of Colorado. Temps across the
region were quite chilly, as temps were below zero in the San Luis
Valley (SLV), with mainly teens across the plains. A 10F reading was
noted at Lamar at 2 am.

Today...

Clouds will continue to increase this morning over most of the
region with some light precip developing over the contdvd region
this afternoon. Accums are expected to be light with generally less
than an inch expected. Max temps today will be in the L40s across
the most of the plains, with 10s and 20s in the mtns and interior
valleys. Winds will be quite light, even at the highest elevations.

Tonight...

The disturbance to our west will amplify to our west as the system
drops south across the Great Basin. Flow aloft will shift to the
southwest and a warm air advection pattern will gradually set up
over the region. Light precip will likely continue over the higher
terrain...mainly north of US-50. This WAA will keep skies cloudy to
mostly cloudy across the entire area, and likewise temps tonight
will not be as cold as this mornings low temps. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period with minor differences early next week.

Friday...an upper level storm system is forecast to drop south out
of Utah into northern Mexico on Friday. Models in good agreement
with increasing snow over the mountains Friday morning, spreading
east along the New Mexico border as energy lifts across northern
New Mexico. Cold air will be in place across the Plains with highs
expected in the mid 30s. Accumulating snow looks to remain
confined to the mountain areas, where 2 to 4 inches are possible
through Friday evening. Light snow will also be possible over the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas Friday afternoon, however,
accumulations are not expected to be more than an inch at this
time. Expect snow to dissipate late Friday night and shift
southeast of the area. Overnight lows will be cold with teens and
20s.

Saturday and Sunday...flat upper ridging is forecast to build
across the region while a storm system strengthens over the
Pacific Northwest. Expect westerly flow aloft to transition
southwesterly by Sunday night. Any remaining snow over the
mountains and far southeastern Plains will dissipate by mid
morning Saturday, with dry conditions expected to prevail through
Sunday. Temperatures will be cool on Saturday with lower 40s,
while temperatures warm to near 50 by Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...a strong upper level storm system is forecast
to move across Colorado early next week. Southwest flow ahead of
the upper trough will spread moisture into the Continental Divide
on Monday. Moderate to heavy snow will be possible, especially for
the orographically favored San Juan range. the upper system will
move across the area on Tuesday. A strong cold front will bring
much colder air and weak upslope flow to the Plains. Expect shower
activity to spread across the area on Tuesday with light snow for
the Plains. Highs will likely only reach the 20s across the
region.

Wednesday...the upper level trough is forecast to shift east into
the Central Plains by Wednesday with broad northwesterly flow
aloft across Colorado. Drier conditions will return for the middle
of the work week, but temperatures will remain cool across the
region.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 344 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24h at KCOS and KPUB.
At KALS, VFR is expected today into this evening, but cigs are
expected to lower late tonight to mvfr/possibly ifr conditions due
to increasing low level moisture advecting into the San Luis Valley.
Winds will be light at all locations.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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