Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 271003
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CURRENTLY...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT TSRA SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CO. SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY CALM WEATHER OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. LATEST 07Z HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN EL PASO COUNTY. GENERALLY WEAK SE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AIDE IN STRATUS FORMATION...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 14Z ALLOWING FOR THE
LIFTING OF ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN MTN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
18Z TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SANGRES AND WET
MTNS. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE HAS CLOSE TO 1000J OF CAPE WITH GENERALLY
WEAK SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NNW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE TSTMS ACTION CONFINED CLOSELY
TO MTN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING ISOLATED TSRA WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z AS
RADIATIVE PROCESSES BECOME DOMINATE. DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CIRCULATIONS
LOOK TO BECOME DOMINATE...DIMINISHING THE CHANCES OF ANY STRATUS OR
FOG FORMATION FOR THIS PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  -AL

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS SUN AS SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE CREST OF THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUN...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E-NE
BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AIDING IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT. STEERING
CURRENTS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WILL
AGAIN PREVENT STORMS FROM MOVING TOO FAR EAST OF I-25. WITH FRONT
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGF WARMER THAN SAT...WHILE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS REMAIN
NEARLY UNCHANGED. BEST UPWARD MOTION SHIFTS QUICKLY SOUTH INTO NM
SUN EVENING...LEADING TO RATHER RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AFTER
SUNSET MOST LOCATIONS. ON MON...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS THE REGION...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME EVEN
MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS...AS MID LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A SLIGHT NE DIRECTION AS
UPPER RIDGE WOBBLES EASTWARD. SUSPECT MOST TSRA WILL STAY WEST OF
I-25 THROUGH THE DAY...ENDING QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH LACK OF
FORCING. MAX TEMPS MON WILL AGAIN CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT.

TUE LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION AS
WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXPANDS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE USUAL
CROP OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA...AGAIN LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER TUE...RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WED...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN
TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WED-
SAT...WHILE LINGERING MOISTURE KEEPS AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING FARTHER WEST AS WELL. WITH HIGH SHIFTING WEST AND
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH...EXPECT TUE WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH GRADUAL COOLING TREND ALL AREAS FROM WED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF KCOS AND KPUB THIS
MORNING AS MOIST SE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z AS WESTERLY FLOW TAKES
OVER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. TSTMS REMAIN CONFINED TO MTN TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WL LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...28



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