Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 300511
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

...GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...

MONSOON PLUME EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLORADO WITH OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NE NM.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN MTS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MEANWHILE...SFC DEW POINTS ON THE PLAINS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 40S
WHICH HAS REALLY DIMINISHED CAPES.  SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWER 50 DEW
POINTS REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MODELS
SUGGEST CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 800 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEW POINTS CAN MAINTAIN A LITTLE BETTER.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE 40 KTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT THIS IS WHERE CAPE IS LACKING...AND WHERE CAPE IS
BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTH...SHEAR IS LACKING.  SO MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS DIMINISH THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
SUGGEST THAT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT WITH MODESTLY ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME
OVER THE AREA...AND WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...AND WITH MONSOON
PLUME SPREADING NORTHWARD A BIT...SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE PLAINS SHOULD KEEP DEW POINTS HIGHER
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF A SFC TROF AXIS WHICH TAKES
SHAPE ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THROUGH KLHX.
THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS.  CAPE VALUES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER
EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...BUILDING
UPPER HIGH ALOFT CUTS BACK 0-6KM SHEARS...SO ONCE AGAIN THINK MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH
AND WEST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MINOR DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN MTS. WILL SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SLOWLY MOVING STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
AREA BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS CENTER OF UPPER HIGH BUILDS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS GENERALLY
DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED TO AREAS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH WITH THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATING MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON MONDAY. FOR
NOW...DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH
THAT SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MORE STORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z THU...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A TSRA AT KALS AND
KCOS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST ACTIVITY WILL FADE WAY AGAIN 02Z-04Z THU
EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSRA MAY LINGER OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PAST 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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