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000
FXUS65 KPUB 191506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
906 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY CONDITIONS.
ALSO REFRESHED ALL FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH 12Z NAM12 DATA. -PJC

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FAR EASTERN PLAINS...FIRE WEATHER OVER
MTNS/VALLEYS...

CURRENTLY...

AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN TRACKING OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM HAS TRACKED IN REMOTE
AREAS SO NO REPORTS...BUT ALGORITHMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING 2" HAIL
WITH IT AT TIMES...AND MODEST ROTATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON AND OFF
WITH THE CELL.

OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS...LLVL MSTR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE WITH
SFC SE WINDS OVER THE REGION. SKIES HAVE CLOUDED UP OVER A GOOD PART
OF THE PLAINS WITH CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.

OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS...THE DRY AIR IS NOTED AS DWPTS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.

TODAY...

SIMULATIONS SHOW THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ON THE COLORADO SIDE OF THE
CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMING
ALOFT...CONVG ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR TWO STORMS TO
FORM. LATEST HRRR WAS HINTING AT THIS. SPC ALSO HAS FAR E PLAINS IN
SLIGHT RISK. CAPE IS FCST TO BE SIGNIFICANT...3000 J/KG...AND SHEAR
WILL BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...SO IF ANY STORM GOES UP IT WILL
ROTATE AND IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME BIG HAIL. LCLS
WILL BE HIGH SO TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW.

OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR GIVEN THE LOW DWPTS AND GUSTY SW
WINDS. QUITE A FEW AREAS ON THE PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN SO THE THREAT IS LESS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER IT WILL
DRY OUT QUICKLY TODAY AND ANY AREAS WHICH HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
SIGNIF RAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY THAN THE YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100 OVER THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. EXPECT 70S MTNS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPS AROUND 90F WILL OCCUR IN MOST OF EL PASO
COUNTY.

TONIGHT...

EXCEPT FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SUPERCELL OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY. RH RECOVERY WILL BE VERY POOR
OVER THE MTNS...VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...HIGH FIRE DANGER...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG DRY PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25. ALREADY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OUT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE
ONE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP WELL BELOW 10 PERCENT. IN ADDITION
THE AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF I-25 AS WELL...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE HOWEVER FUEL STATUS AND RECENT HEAVY RAINS PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. FINE FUELS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AND MAY CURE QUICKLY WITH PERSISTENT DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY
SEE ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ON
SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MANAGE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS BEFORE WARMING BACK UP FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AND HELP REDUCE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN A BIT STRONGER BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATING
THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY TO
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

MORNING LOW CIGS WILL AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. KALS WILL BE VFR
NEXT 24H.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>230.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PJC
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH