Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 172144
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
344 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING TOWARD COLORADO...

A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TONIGHT...AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON SATURDAY.

SYSTEM IS NOT REAL POTENT WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE
THE LOWER LEVELS OVER COLORADO.  HOWEVER...AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY BREAK OUT OVER THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY. THEN
ON SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THAT ACTIVITY ADVANCE NORTHWARD
APPROACHING THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON.  THEN...DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY
AREAS.  PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE PLAINS LOOK PRETTY LIMITED AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS
METEOROLOGICAL THINKING AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES
ARE STILL PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT AT
TIMES DURING THE LONGER TERM...PRODUCING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

INITIALLY...DECREASING PRECIPITATION 1S ANTICIPATED SATURDAY
EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE CWFA.

THEN...CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
12Z SUNDAY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD
THEN BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

RECENT COMPUTER MODEL SIMULATIONS STILL HAVING ISSUES ON AMOUNT OF
IMPACT THAT NEXT SYSTEM PRODUCES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF STILL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
DEPICT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

FOR NEXT FRIDAY...LATEST METEOROLOGICAL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO ALLOWING FOR DRY
AND MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE THAT NEAR TO
ABOVE SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE
LONGER TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN WORKING NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING
ISOLATED -SHRA TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS 06Z-12Z...WITH SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS BECOMING OBSCURED BY 12Z. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL WORK GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z AND THEN EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF
THE MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS BY 00Z.  PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS LOOK PRETTY SPOTTY AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  MEANWHILE...THE KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS TAF SITES WILL
SEE INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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