Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160254
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
854 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Updated forecast to convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning for EL Paso and Teller counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Upper ridge moving across Colorado today, bringing record highs
to Pueblo and Colorado Springs, and near 50f temps all the way up
to Leadville. Air mass remains extremely dry, and with W-NW winds
occasionally gusting to 20-25 kts, have seen brief critical fire
conditions in spots along the Palmer Divide and back into Teller
county. For tonight, wly flow and very warm temps aloft suggest
mins will be mild, with only the mountains and highest valleys
dropping below freezing. On Thursday, ridge flattens as trough
moves through the northern Rockies, with a subtle increase in
winds aloft across Colorado as nrn edge of the upper jet drops
into the state during the day. Given expected deep mixing, suspect
wind gust potential may be a few kts higher than today, which
would bump El Paso/Teller counties into Red Flag conditions for a
few hours in the afternoon. Will hoist a Fire Weather Watch for
fire wx zones 221/226/227 for now, but keep areas farther south
out of the watch, as winds farther south along the I-25 corridor
look slightly weaker. Max temps Thu will be near or slightly
warmer than today`s numbers, though very warm records for the date
may be just out of reach.

Cold front then swings through Colorado Thu night as upper wave
pushes out of the nrn Rockies into the plains. Not a tremendous
amount of cooling behind the boundary with Fri max temps falling
around 10f most locations, though most of the plains should see a
switch to E-SE upslope winds and enough an increase in humidity to
lessen the fire danger through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Relatively nondescript meteorological conditions anticipated
during the balance of the longer term with with main longer term
concerns continuing to be above average temperatures, gusty
winds/elevated fire weather concerns at times and increasing
precipitation chances by the middle on next week.

Latest longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast
model soundings suggest that the forecast district will continue
to experience an upper ridging to southwesterly upper flow
pattern into next week with increased precipitation potential over
primarily the western half of the CWFA by next Wednesday as
a healthy upper disturbance impacts the region.

Heightened fire weather concerns(over primarily eastern sections)
are anticipated each day of the longer term(i.e. Friday into next
Wednesday) with the highest potential of elevated fire weather
conditions anticipated this weekend. As always, WFO Pueblo will
monitor closely and issue fire weather highlights as warranted.

It still appears that the highest potential for gusty winds at
times during the longer term should be experienced from Saturday
night into Sunday night and then again from later Tuesday into
next Wednesday.

Finally above seasonal mid to later March maximum and minimum
temperatures are expected to continue over the forecast during
the longer term with the warmest temperatures anticipated this
weekend. Coolest temperatures(although still above climatological
averages) are anticipated by early to mid portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Wed Mar 15 2017

VFR conditions expected at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. W-NW winds
will occasionally gust to 20 kts at KPUB and KCOS until 01z this
evening, with another period of gusty W-NW winds after 18z on Thu at
both sites.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ221-226-
227.

&&

$$



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