Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 270537
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON EVENING MODEL TRENDS AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS...HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TELLER...EL
PASO...PUEBLO AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z. LOOKS LIKE
SNOWFALL CURRENTLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THIS
AREA...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

LOADED FRESH OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 539 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

RAISED POPS OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY FOR
THIS EVENING AS SNOWFALL ALREADY UNDERWAY. ALSO REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENTLY...BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW HAS
STARTED TO INCREASE A BIT IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ALONG THE
NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR...SOUTH TO NEAR PUEBLO...AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLD WITH TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE REGION.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
IN COLDER AIR AND STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE PLAINS.  HIGH RES
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW ENHANCING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THIS ENHANCEMENT WITH
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.  AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...EXPECT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
SNOWFALL TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  WHILE THE
HEAVIER SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR COLORADO SPRINGS AND
PUEBLO...LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DECENT BAND
OF SNOW DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS BACA COUNTY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  HAVE HOISTED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BACA COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED
SNOW BAND. TEMPERATURES TO NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  THE NEW MEXICO SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.  WHATS LEFT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN I-
25 CORRIDOR...EAST INTO BACA COUNTY SHOULD DECREASE TO JUST LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
ENERGY AND MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BEGIN THE ONSLAUGHT OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SAN JUAN RANGE.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

AS FAR AS ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...WET MOUNTAIN AND RAMPART RANGES WILL SEEN AN ADDITIONAL 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES.  BACA COUNTY
IS IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW HEAVY THE SNOW BECOMES UNDER
THE SNOW BAND...BUT CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

WESTERN U.S. TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES EJECTING EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERATE NEARLY CONTINUOUS HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY...AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE 3-4 FEET OF ACCUMULATION AT WOLF
CREEK AND CUMBRES PASSES BY MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER
NORTH...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE LA
GARITAS AND SAWATCH RANGES...THOUGH JET DYNAMICS AND PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL ADD UP TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY EARLY MON
MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING...WITH ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE LA GARITAS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED ADVISORIES FOR MORE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN ZONES...THOUGH WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
SUN...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. FARTHER EAST...SANGRES WILL SEE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HEAVIEST LIKELY LATE SUN AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE MOVES
ACROSS. WILL NEED SOME NEW HIGHLIGHTS FOR AT LEAST HIGHER WEST
FACING SLOPES...THOUGH WILL WAIT UNTIL CURRENT WARNINGS EXPIRE
LATER TONIGHT. REMAINING MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT THE CONTINUOUS
HEAVY SNOW THAT AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL RECEIVE.
OVER THE PLAINS...WARM ADVECTION BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST AREAS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...PRODUCING A
QUICK INCH OR TWO BY MIDDAY. EXPECT A BREAK IN PRECIP SAT
AFTERNOON BEFORE COLDER AIR SLOSHES BACK SOUTH IN THE EVENING WITH
E/NE WINDS REGENERATING ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MAX TEMPS SAT/SUN REMAIN COLD...NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS.

AS WESTERN U.S. TROUGH DEEPENS SUN NIGHT INTO MON...S/SW FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WARMER AIR SURGING BACK
NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WARM NOSE ALOFT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUN EVENING...AND WITH 700 MB 0C
ISOTHERM NORTH OF THE NM BORDER...THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FZDZ OR
FZRA DEVELOPS OVER BACA/LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH
STRENGTHENING DOWNWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...WINDOW FOR FREEZING
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL. DOWNSLOPE FLOW THEN KILLS MOST PRECIP
OVER EASTERN MOUNTAINS SLOPES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS MON...WHILE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE CONTINUES TO GET BURIED INTO MON EVENING WITH
NO LET-UP IN THE HEAVY SNOW. SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS RECOVER TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS MON
AFTERNOON...WARMEST OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TUE/WED
WITH STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS COLORADO TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AFTERNOON. COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW REDEVELOP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FROM MIDDAY TUE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON...BEFORE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BRINGS AN END TO
SNOWFALL WED EVENING INTO THU. AFTER A BRIEF RECOVERY
TUE...BITTERLY COLD AIR RETURNS FOR WED BEFORE MODERATING SOMEWHAT
THU...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER SUGGESTS WARM UP WILL BE SLOW
TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KALS...PERIODS OF -SN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING...BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW
MTS FRI EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE SN AND CIG AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS AFTER 03-06Z SAT.

AT KCOS...IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
O9-12Z DUE TO SNOW...THEN PRECIP WILL LIGHTEN UP AND BECOME LESS
PERSISTENT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER...SE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
LOW CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z. SOME COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIFR DEVELOPING FRI
AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED -SN....BUT WITH THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...WILL STAY ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE IN THE TAF.

AT KPUB...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCOS WITH -SN CONTINUING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING...THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATER MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CIGS AND SOME
RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL IFR...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ081>086-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ064-065.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ060-066>068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.