Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171440
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
740 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 739 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

...COLD...

MAIN CONCERN IS THE COLD.  THE SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK HAS HAD
SUSTAINED WINDS 25-30 WITH TEMPS OF -5 TO -10 PRODUCING WIND CHILLS
TO AROUND -35 THIS MORNING.  RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA AT
THOSE TEMPERATURES....WITH FROSTBITE OCCURRING IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES.
HOISTED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR CHILLS -25 TO -34 THROUGH 9 AM
TODAY.  AFTER 9...CHILLS UP THERE SHOULD RISE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND THERMOMETER READINGS RISE.

ELSEWHERE...COLD THIS MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 0
TO 15 ABOVE ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR...EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE BEFORE THE MORNING IS THROUGH.  WITH JUST A LIGHT
BREEZE...THIS PUTS WIND CHILLS IN THE RANGE OF 0 TO AROUND -20 AT
TIMES.  TIME SPENT OUTDOORS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
LAYERS OF WARM CLOTHING SHOULD BE WORN. PETS SHOULD BE INDOORS OR
HAVE A PLACE OF WARM SHELTER.

THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND YESTERDAY`S SNOWMELT MAY YIELD SOME
POCKETS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN LOW LYING CREEK
AND RIVER BOTTOMS.  VISIBILITIES IN THESE AREAS COULD DROP SUDDENLY
TO LESS THAN A 1/4 MILES AT TIMES.  MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPERATURES WON`T WARM A WHOLE LOT TODAY OVER YESTERDAY BUT THEY
SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES.  HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH
MOSTLY TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

STILL COLD AGAIN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.
EXPECTED LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR ALL
AREAS.  SHOULD START TO SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING EFFECTS RIGHT
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.  THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST READINGS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS. LW

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND HEIGHTS INCREASE AS LARGE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST
MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE...BUT THE CONUNDRUM IS HOW MUCH WILL IT WARM AT THE
SURFACE. GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN ARE IN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND NO GOOD
MIXING THE THOUGHT IS THAT CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO JUST
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST ALOFT...BUT BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS
SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...YIELDING WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW. AGAIN THE ISSUE IS HOW WARM WILL IT GET WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER AND NOT THE GREATEST MIXING. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW...BUT IT COULD BE TO WARM ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EUROPEAN AND GFS NOW HAVING SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS WITH THE NEXT VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST
DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT TERRAIN. SUNDAY...AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSES...COOLER AIR WILL INVADE WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. -TM-

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION/LOW CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY.  ALSO...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME POCKETS OF
PATCHY...DENSE...LOW LEVEL GROUND FOG IN CREEK AND RIVER BOTTOMS
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.  THIS IS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
COUPLED WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT YESTERDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE FLIGHT AREA. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...LW



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