Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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193
FXUS65 KPUB 060539
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1039 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

A weather disturbance moving by to the north and northeast will send
a front through southeast CO tonight. This will cause the winds to
become northerly and will be gusty in some areas, but will decrease
late tonight.  This evening, some snow is expected to continue over
the central CO mtns, but with that disturbance exiting the area, snow
chances will decrease later tonight although there will probably
still be at least some isold snow showers.  The rest of the area is
expected to be dry tonight.  Low temps tonight will be in the single
digits and teens across southeast and south central CO, with
portions of the San Luis Valley and some of the higher mtn areas
probably seeing single digits below zero.

On Tue the next weather system moves into the Great Basin.  Ahead of
this system the forecast area generally looks dry thru the morning
hours, with maybe just some isold or scattered snow showers in the
central mountains.  In the afternoon the moisture ahead of this
system is expected to bring increasing chances for snow to the
Continental Divide.  The GFS also shows snow developing over the
Pikes Peak and Teller county areas in the late afternoon, while the
NAM keeps the eastern mtns dry thru 00Z Wed.  Will keep some isold
to scattered pcpn in the forecast for Tue afternoon over the eastern
mtns.  The eastern plains are expected to remain dry thru the
afternoon.  Temps will be much colder tomorrow over the southeast
plains with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.   The upper Arkansas
River valley and the San Luis Valley should see highs in the upper
20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

...Very cold temperatures through Thursday...

Models have been fairly consistent for the past few days keeping the
best area of snowfall just north and east of the CWA. Still
expecting very cold air through Thursday. Best chances for snow will
continue to be in the central Colorado mountains. Some light snow is
also possible across northern El Paso and Teller counties. 12z runs
of the GFS and NAM have really backed off on snow amounts in Kiowa
county and along the Kansas border. Kept low POPs in for the
plains, but expecting any snow accumulations to be an inch or less
at this time. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the
Central Mountains, Teller and Northern El Paso county for Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. The advisory is in effect for snow,
blowing snow, and bitter cold wind chills 0 to -15. Accumulating
snow in Teller and Northern El Paso will be pretty light, but there
could be some impact to the Monument Hill commute Wednesday
morning.

The system moves quickly out of the area Wednesday, but the cold air
remains. Expect clearing skies and good radiational cooling
overnight Wednesday with lows generally in the single digits above
and below zero. Highs on Thursday will only be in the 20s, with
teens in the mountains.

On Friday, we`ll see temperatures climb back to near normal for high
temperatures. For Saturday, Sunday and Monday, west to northwest
flow sets up with a series of disturbances moving through the flow.
Conditions still look fairly mild and dry on the plains, but there
will be snow chances for the Continental Divide and areas to the
west. Stark

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1034 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24h at KPUB and KALS.
Winds will be light.

At KCOS, VFR conditions are anticipate at least through late
tomorrow afternoon. By late afternoon and tomorrow evening...there
will be a slight chance of some light snow and low cigs which
could produce MVFR or IFR conditions. At this time, the
probability of this happening is too low to explicitly mention in
the KCOS TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 9 AM MST Wednesday
for COZ081-082-084.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MST Wednesday
for COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...HODANISH



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