Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221903
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1203 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for
tomorrow. It will be cooler tomorrow but the winds will be
stronger. Td`s will also be lower tomorrow. Note that Baca County
will be upgraded into the EXTREME category on the new SPC DAY 2
Fire Weather Outlook page.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

...Strong Winds...Low Humidities...High Fire Danger...

Once again today southern Colorado will be under strong westerly
flow.  Westerly winds that have continued to blow in many areas
through the night will only increase today as daytime mixing gets
underway.  Gusts up to 40 or 50 mph will be possible.  The strong
downslope component to the winds will really dry out the surface
airmass.  The combination of strong winds, low humidities and dry
fuels will result in another day of high fire danger over the east.
The severity of today`s conditions will exceed yesterday`s by a
large margin, being much more widespread and extreme.  Burning or
any other activities that could accidentally start a fire should be
postponed.

The strong downslope flow will send temperatures soaring well above
average and to record levels again.  For Colorado Springs, the
normal high for today is 46 and the record is 70 set back in 1958.
The forecast for today is 73.  For Pueblo, the normal for today is
52 and the record is 72 set back in 2002.  The forecast is 77.  With
less wind and more inversion effect, it will be harder to get the
record in Alamosa but it could happen.  The normal high there is 42,
the record is 60 set in 1982 and the forecast is 60.

Precipitation today and tonight will be confined to snow showers
along the Continental Divide.  Local accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
will be possible along the Divide.  Winds gusting up to 50 mph at
times will result in areas of blowing snow and poor visibilities as
snow showers move through.  Hazardous travel conditions will be
possible at times through the mountain passes.

Otherwise the main concern today will be the wind.  As stated
earlier, gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible.  In addition to the
fire concerns that go along with winds in this range, other concerns
may include blowing dust and debris.  Of course, winds in this range
may also cause hazardous travel conditions, particularly for high
profile vehicles.  Even without snow, there will be plenty of
weather hazards to deal with today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Thursday and Friday...Latest model runs provide a slower solution
for the next incoming upper low pressure system, with the low still
located over sw WY Thu aftn. This will mean one more day of gusty
winds and dry conditions for the eastern plains, therefore a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for much of the plains Thu aftn. The
upper low still sweeps across WY through the evening, pushing a sfc
cold front south across the CO plains through the night. The best
shot for pcpn across the plains will come Thu eve with the frontal
passage, otherwise pcpn will be mainly restricted to the higher
terrain with 4 to 8 inches of new snow possible for the higher
elevations of Lake and Chaffee Counties through Fri morning. By Fri
aftn/eve the flow aloft will shift to a more northwesterly
direction, keeping things cool but more dry. As for temps, max
readings Thu will be in the 40s and 50s for the high valleys, and
50s to lower 60s for the plains. On Fri, look for a 10 degree drop
in temp for the high valleys, and a 15 to 20 degree drop in temp
across the eastern plains.

Saturday...Westerly flow aloft across the region, with continued
isolated to low-end scattered snow chances for the central mts.
Seasonal temps expected with highs in the 30s and 40s for all areas.

Sunday through Tuesday...Flow aloft becomes southwesterly through
the start of the next work week as the next Pacific storm system
digs south across CA and NV. This will bring even more new snow to
the ContDvd, while keeping the plains essentially dry. Look for
temps in the 40s and 50s on Sun, then warmer with gusty winds for
Mon and Tue with max temps in the 40s and 50s for the high valleys,
and 50s to lower 60s for the plains. There is the chance that
critical fire weather conditions will return to the plains
starting Mon. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1024 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Main concern during this forecast period will be gusty southwest
winds at all 3 taf sites this afternoon. Gusts to 25 to 35 knots
will be common.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ222-226>233.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Thursday for COZ227>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hodanish
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH



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