Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290148
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
648 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
BOOST SKY COVER OVER THE PLAINS...AS PERSISTENT WAVE CLOUDS
REMAIN E OF THE MTS THROUGH THIS EVE. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

CURRENTLY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTED ACROSS THE
STATE...PRODUCING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS HELPED TO BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND INTO
THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE PAC NW TONIGHT...SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO FROM A
WESTERLY TO A MORE W-SW DIRECTION. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SANGRES...WETS...PIKES PEAK AND THE CENTRAL MTS TONIGHT. MT WAVE
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS WELL. DO NOT FEEL THAT THE MT
WAVE SETUP FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS OPTIMAL FOR TONIGHT...AS COMPARED
TO SAT NIGHT...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS EVENING.

THE BRISK WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER WARM START FOR THE DAY TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE INDUCED HIGH WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...

PARAMETERS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR A POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE
HIGH WIND EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  UPPER JET TRANSLATES BY TO
THE NORTH ALLOWING A WINDOW OF REVERSE SHEAR TO SET UP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MTN PEAK WINDS IN CROSS SECTIONS OFF THE NAM12
INCREASE TO AROUND 60-70 KTS...WITH WIND POTENTIAL MAXIMIZING AT
AROUND 09Z. SOUNDING SUGGEST MTN TOP STABLE LAYER SETS UP AROUND
00Z...THOUGH ITS STRENGTH SEEMS TO WAVER FROM RUN TO RUN...LOOKING MOST
PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH. POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACES SHOW SOME
NICE DIPPING TO THE LEE OF THE SE MTS OVERNIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE PEAKS TO GET HIGH WIND GUSTS...HAVE
OPTED TO PUT UP A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SE MTS. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES THESE HIGH WINDS
MAY SPREAD...AND WHETHER THEY WILL GET AS FAR DOWN AS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PARTICULARLY UP NEAR AIR FORCE
ACADEMY...AND DOWN AROUND WALSENBURG/AGUILAR. THIS IS OFTEN
DETERMINED BY THE STABLE LAYER ALOFT...HOW PRONOUNCED IT IS AND
WHETHER IT IS POSITIONED AT THE MTN TOP SWEET SPOT. WILL NEED TO
WAIT FOR THESE DETAILS TO BE RESOLVED BY HIGH RES SHORT RANGE
MODELS COMING IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE
SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO GO OUT WITH A WATCH.

MTN WAVE BREAKS DOWN BY AROUND 15Z...A LITTLE SOONER TO THE
NORTH...AND UPPER TROF PASSING ACROSS THE NRN U.S ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO GIVE
TIME FOR HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE COOLER AIR
PUSHES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT. EVENT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...AND DRIER GFS SUGGESTS ONLY
STRATUS. HAVE THROWN IN SOME LOW ISOLATED POPS FOR THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE SE MTS/PALMER DIVIDE AS WINDS SWING AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE... A WEAK PACIFIC WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS CO SUNDAY
NIGHT SPREADING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL. AGAIN...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS CLEARS...HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH ABOVE FREEZING. WESTERN MTNS/VALLEYS WILL
FEEL LITTLE AFFECT FROM THIS FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
THE DAY BEFORE.

LEE TROF REDEVELOPS ON TUESDAY BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
THE PLAINS. THEN CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST IS PROGGED BY LONG
RANGE MODELS TO FILL AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WED/THURS IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SPREAD THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW BACK INTO THE CONTDVD REGION THE THE MID/LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK. SO FAR SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXTENDED MODELS LOOKS FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL 48 HR DURATION...COULD BE LOOKING
AT ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BE
PRESENT. PATTERN COUNTIES TO LOOK ACTIVE FOR THE MOUNTAINS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO
TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SW US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THIS LATTER SYSTEM. TIME WILL TELL. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE
REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.
WINDS FOR THE SLV AND AREAS EAST OF I-25 ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE
TONIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR OCNL WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OVER THE MTS...GUSTS OF 60-65
MP WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT AS THE UPPER PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS FORECAST AS WELL ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. MOORE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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