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000
FXUS65 KPUB 130415
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1015 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VERY SPARSE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH
A LACK OF LIGHTNING SO FAR...WILL ONLY MENTION A FEW -SHRA
THROUGH SUNSET AND REMOVE -TSRA FROM THE GRIDS. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL
CLEAR WITH SEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPS. ON MON...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER COLORADO...LEADING TO WARM TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE SPRINKLES AT BEST. GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO
LOOK SLIGHTLY TOO WARM GIVEN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS...SO SHADED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF MOST MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MONDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN DUE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER ON TUE. MT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET MON NIGHT...THEN FIRE UP AGAIN TUE AFTN WITH
ANOTHER HOT DAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE CO PLAINS
ON TUE...WITH THE NAM INDICATING 18Z PASSAGE ACROSS THE PALMER DVD
AND THE GFS AND EC SHOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE ABOUT 12 HRS LATER. FEEL
THAT THE NAM PROBABLY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING...BUT PAINTED
POP GRIDS TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MTS TUE
AFTN AND EVE...THEN ACTIVITY SPRWADING TO THE PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COOLER
AIR SHOULD KNOCK MAX TEMPS ON WED DOWN ABOUT 10 DEGREES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW FORCES DRY
AND WARM SW FLOW ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS ON THU AND FRI. THE GFS AND EC
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...WELL NORTH OF COLORADO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CONTINUED WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THU THROUGH SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUN AS A
COOL NORTHERLY SURGE AFFECTS THE CWA. MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE
SHOWING THAT THE DRY LINE WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE CO/KS
BORDER...SO EXPECT DIURNAL ISOLATED MT CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH A
VERY SLIM CHANCE OF ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS DURING THE NEXT 24H. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH