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000
FXUS65 KPUB 112139
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...FIRE DANGER HIGH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

CURRENTLY...2 NEW WILDFIRES BURNING...ONE IN ROYAL GORGE AND ONE IN
BLACK FOREST. ROYAL GORGE FIRE HAS RAPIDLY GROWN AND IS CLEARLY
VISIBLE FROM THE OFFICE. BLACK FORREST FIRE WAS 15 ACRES.

HOT WINDY AND BONE DRY WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AT 2
PM. TEMPS ON THE PLAINS RANGED IN THE 100S...WITH 103 TO 109 LOCATED
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY FROM PUEBLO TO THE KANSAS BORDER. RH
VALUES WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. OVER THE PLAINS THE RH VALUES WERE LESS THAN 5%.

WINDS WERE RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

WINDS...SOUTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN DECREASING DURING THE 8-9 PM TIME FRAME.
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 MPH OVER THE PLAINS.

NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA THE REST OF TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
AND THEN SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. I EXPECT MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH A FEW 100S ACROSS THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. RH VALUES WILL BE ONLY A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MARGINAL RED FLAG FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AS WIND GUSTS APPROACH 25 MPH.

WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE MTNS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

SIMILAR LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS WITH PRIMARY CHALLENGES BEING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED
POPS AT TIMES.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO AT 00Z THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA BY 00Z FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
LOUISIANA FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT UPPER RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER FAR WEST TEXAS FROM SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IS STILL PROJECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY MORNING.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN ON
THURSDAY...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
ISSUE FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

ISOLATED PRIMARILY HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES(HOWEVER STILL ABOVE MID-JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGESS) ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT TUE JUN 11 2013

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING AND THEN DECREASE. DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR KCOS AND KPUB. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED NEXT 24H
AT THE TAF SITES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS TODAY BUT WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...HODANISH