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000
FXUS65 KPUB 121003
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE E PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WHILE LLVL
MOISTURE WAS REMAINING MAINLY TO THE NE. POOR RH RECOVERY WAS
EVIDENT...WHICH WAS NOT HELPING THE ONGOING WILDFIRES IN THE CWA.
THE 2 BIG FIRES WERE IN BLACK FOREST AND AT THE ROYAL GORGE
BRIDGE...AND LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS PUSHING SOME SMOKE
INTO COLORADO SPRINGS. THERE IS A THIRD SMALLER FIRE NEAR LA VETA.
LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE UPPER RIDGE OH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF CO OVER
OK AND TX. THIS IS KEEPING CO UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WINDS AT THE SFC ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH
LIGHTER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO KNOCK
A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN FOR THE PLAINS...BUT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE FORECAST MAX TEMP FOR KALS
WILL BE A TIE OF THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE...BUT NO OTHER RECORDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. NAM AND GFS MODELS HAVE HINTED AT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...BUT
THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED PRODUCING ESSENTIALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE A CONCERN FOR CREWS ON BOTH FIRES TODAY.
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR EL PASO COUNTY TODAY LOOKS GOOD DUE TO
EXPECTED AFTN WIND GUSTS AND ONGOING LARGE FIRE. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

VERY WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP STREAMS OVER THE AREA THU...AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL
LOOKS VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE...SO MOST STORMS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
PRODUCE WIND AND LIGHTNING BUT NOT MUCH RAIN. BEST BET FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...WHERE MOISTURE MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER. OTHER WORRY FOR
THU IS RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY
ONSHORE. HOISTED A NEW FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND EL PASO COUNTY WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST...OTHER AREAS
LOOKED MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS WHERE MIN RH STAY JUST
ABOVE THRESHOLDS. MAX TEMPS THU WILL STAY VERY WARM...WITH 100F
READINGS AGAIN OVER THE LOWER ARK VALLEY. MOISTURE TAP ENDS UP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO FRI...KEEPING THE THREAT OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION GOING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS INTO FRI
EVENING. BEST BET FOR WETTING RAINS FRI WILL BE NEAR THE KS
BORDER...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S THROUGH THE
DAY. FARTHER WEST...VERY DRY AIR MASS SPREADS TOWARD THE CONT DVD
FRI AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SHUT DOWN CONVECTION OVER MOST WRN
VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS. FRI MAXES LOOK LITTLE CHANGED FROM THU WITH
WARM/HOT READINGS PERSISTING.

RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DRIFT DOWNWARD A FEW DEGF MOST LOCATIONS
BOTH SAT AND SUN. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LIMITED TO THE FAR EAST...AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OCCASIONALLY DRIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE ARK RIVER. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE SURGE MON/TUE
MAY LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BOTH DAYS...WHILE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS STAY
VERY DRY. MAX TEMPS BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UPWARD BY MIDWEEK AS
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY CLIMB...WHILE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AS SW FLOW
AROUND PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS...AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND FLOW EXPECTED. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES
ON THE PALMER DVD...ROYAL GORGE AREA AND THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS...COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES MAINLY AT KCOS AT TIMES IN THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...NORMAL SFC FLOW SHOULD PUSH SMOKE AWAY FROM KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ226-227.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224-226-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE