Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011720
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
AND SATELLITE INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SPREADING EAST INTO THE INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS
IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY MORNING EARLY
SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT ENOUGH AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALSO...AS
MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...IF A STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS
AND/OR MOVES OVER A BURN SCAR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY
DEVELOP. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR RECENT BURN SCAR
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS OTHER CWFA LOCATIONS CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT-TERM ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-GRADE
GRADIENT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ON WED AN UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED OVR TX...WITH AN UPR LOW SITTING
ALONG THE SRN BC COAST.  ON THU AN UPR TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND THE UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE CENTRAL U.S.  THE UPR LEVEL SW
FLOW OVR THE AREA WL ALLOW MONSOON MSTR TO STREAM INTO CO BOTH WED
AND THU RESULTING IN ISOLD TO SCT PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY ISOLD CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRI EXCEPT THAT THE MSTR STREAMING INTO THE AREA
LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER AND WL GO WITH SOME HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
CONTDVD. SAT LOOKS MUCH THE SAME OVR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING MSTR TO THE AREA.  THE CHANGE ON SAT
IS THAT THE UPR TROF OVR THE PAC NW AND ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO MOVE AND MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT AFTERNOON. ON SUN
THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE MSTR STREAM INTO CO
GETS CUT OFF...AND SO IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE DRIER.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT UPR TROF TO THE NORTH...A FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THRU ERN CO AND PROVIDES SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE GFS ALSO HAS MONSOON MSTR COMING BACK OVR THE AREA WITH AN UPR
HIGH BEING CENTERED OVR THE TX PANHANDLE.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS THE MSTR FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

KALS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
REDUCED VIS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CORES THAT MOVE OVER
THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z THROUGH 03Z/WED. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL.

KCOS AND KPUB...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERATING BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/WED. REDUCED CIGS AND
VIS...ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCOS AND KPUB.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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