Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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766
FXUS65 KPUB 141120
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

...Snow winding down...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating a
broad upper trough digging across the state, with secondary energy
digging across eastern Utah at this time. Associated frontal
boundary has been moving across the eastern plains through the early
morning hours and is currently moving south and west just south of
the Highway 50 corridor. PUB saw some light snow as the frontal
boundary moved through PUB just after 2 am, with current Pueblo
doppler radar indicating enhanced echoes across the Wet Mountains
associated with the north to northeast winds behind the front.
Regional radars are also indicating a secondary surge of snow across
the Front Range, starting to slide south and should move into the
Pikes Peak region over the next hour. Webcams are showing some light
snow accumulations on grassy areas and on roadways along and west of
the I-25 corridor, including some light snow along Highway 50 in
Pueblo West at this time.

The broad upper trough continues to dig south and east across the
southern Colorado through the early afternoon, with dry air moving
into the region within increasing northerly flow aloft. Precipitation
over the higher terrain will continue to slide south and west across
southern Colorado through the morning, with additional accumulations
of the 1 to 3 inches expected over the higher terrain, greatest
amounts across the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, with 1 to 2
inches possible across the southern I-25 corridor and a trace to up
to an inch across the rest of the area. Could see a few showers
developing over the higher terrain through the afternoon, though
coverage will be fairly isolated and any accumulations will be light
and spotty.  Gusty north winds of 15 to 30 mph are expected to
develop across the eastern plains through the late morning and
afternoon, with the strongest winds across the far southeast plains
near the Kansas border. Cool air in place behind the passing system
will keep highs today near to slightly below seasonal levels, in the
30s to low 40s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the teens
and 20s across the higher terrain.

Moderating northerly flow aloft expected through tonight, with upper
level ridging build back across the Great Basin. Warming aloft under
the building ridge will help warm temperatures for areas over and
near the higher terrain overnight, with coldest temperatures
expected in the valley locales.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

...Disturbance to Move through this Weekend...

After a couple more dry and unseasonably mild days Friday and
Saturday, another disturbance could impact the area Saturday night
and Sunday.  Currently, there is a lot of uncertainty about this
next system.  Some recent model runs have this system digging well
to the south and west of Colorado, nearly voiding the area of
precipitation.  Others have it passing by near the Four Corners
Region Saturday night into early Sunday, like old runs, bringing
snow showers to much of the area.  Needless to say, uncertainty is
high. For now, colder with a chance of snow showers Saturday night
and Sunday seems the way to go.  At this point, it looks like
generally light accumulations, confined mainly to the mountain areas.

High pressure will rebuild again Monday through Wednesday for
another period of dry and unseasonably mild weather. The reprieve
may not last too long.  Medium range forecast models looking ahead
to week`s end show the potential for a new storm to impact the
region. This is a little beyond our extended forecast range but it`s
worth mentioning here since holiday travel plans may be adversely
impacted. Stay tuned and we`ll keep you posted.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MST Thu Dec 14 2017

Snow showers are expected to diminish from northeast to southwest
across the state, as a broad upper trough continues to dig south and
east across southern Colorado through the early afternoon. MVFR and
local IFR conditions with light snow at COS to continue through the
early morning hours, with any additional accumulations expected to
light from a trace to less than 1/2 inch. VFR conditions expected by
the late morning, with breezy northerly winds developing and
continuing through the afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions possible at
PUB and ALS with possible passing snow showers through the early
morning, with VFR conditions expected from the late morning and
continuing through the rest of taf period. Could also see breezy
northerly winds at PUB through the early afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW



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