Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 161011
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues over the mountains with new Winter Weather
  Advisories issued.

- Snow is possible over the San Luis Valley this morning and
  over the southern I-25 corridor later this evening through
  tomorrow morning. Slushy road conditions are possible under
  stronger snow bands.

- Cool and unsettled weather Sunday.

- Warmer and drier into the work week, with chances of showers
  returning by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A steady stream of shortwaves are being emmitted from a cut-off
closed low over the desert southwest and will continue to pass over
southern Colorado throughout the short term forecast period
(Saturday 6am - Sunday 6am). The shortwaves will bring persistent
snow showers over the higher elevations. Some of those snow showers
will make it over the southern I-25 corridor late this evening and
into the overnight in response to strong PVA, some deformation
aloft, and a weak cold front associated with a low pressure system
to the over eastern half of North America. Similar to what the
region has been experiencing lately there are snow level issues.
Initially precipitation over Huerfano and Las Animas Counties will
start as rain, but around midnight temperatures will decrease to
around freezing and will hover around freezing through rest of the
overnight. The snow will be heavy and wet and will have a tough time
accumulating on roadways. If there are period of particulaly heavy
snowfall, slushy roadways will be possible. We currently have a
Winter Storm Warning in effect for the eastern San Juans until 12PM
today - we will transition that into a Winter Weather Advisory
through 12PM on Sunday after that Warning expires. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued for the upper Rio Grande River Valley and
the La Garita Mountains from 6am today through 12pm Sunday. And
finally, we also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Sangre de
Cristo and Wet Mountains from 6PM tonight through 12PM on Sunday.
Though there will be snow falling this morning over the eastern
mountains, there will be a lull of precipitation until this evening
when the heavier snowfall begins (due to the previously described
reasons).

Outside of the snow chances, light rain is expected over the
majority of the San Luis Valley and north of the rain snow line over
the plains, reaching just south of Pueblo.  High temperatures over
the plains will range from the 40s to upper 50s (warmer temps the
further east) and the mountain valleys will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to low
30s over the plains and the teens to 20s over the mountain
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Sunday-Sunday night...Cool and unsettled weather continues across
the Rockies on Sunday, especially over and near the higher terrain,
as another lobe of energy rotates through the weak east to southeast
upper level flow around the cutoff low across the Desert Southwest.
This energy, combined with east to northeast low to mid level flow
associated another front moving across the plains from passing
northern stream energy across the Upper Midwest, will keep
precipitation ongoing across the southern mtns and immediate
adjacent plains through the day Sunday before precipitation wanes
Sunday afternoon and evening, as drier air works into the region.
The greatest accumulations through this period look to be across the
eastern slopes of the Wet and Sangre de Cristo mtns, as well as the
eastern slopes of the eastern San Juan and La Garita mtns, where
Winter Weather Advisories are in place through 18Z Sunday.
Temperatures over and near the higher terrain on Sunday remain below
seasonal averages, with around seasonal highs in the mid to upper
50s across the far southeast Plains.

Monday-Wednesday...Warmer and drier weather expected areawide for
early next week, ahead of increasing chances of showers and a few
possible thunderstorms, later Tuesday through Wednesday, as models
indicate the Desert Southwest cutoff low finally weakening and
ejecting across the Rockies through mid week. Timing and location of
said ejecting system remains in question, through latest ensemble
data suggests a weak wave moving across the Rockies on Wednesday.
Temperatures look to warm back to at or slightly above seasonal
levels through the middle of the next week.

Thursday-Saturday...Upper level ridging building across the region
on Thursday gives way to increasing westerly flow into next weekend,
as more eastern Pacific energy moves across the West Coast. Latest
models differ on how this energy continues to translate east, with
the potential for a split flow pattern developing across the
Intermountain West complicating the forecast across the Rockies.
Latest NBM and ensemble data keep the best chances of precipitation
along and west of the ContDvd into the weekend, with temperatures
remaining at or above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

KALS:

Snow showers will transitions to rain showers throughout the day
over KALS. Lower clouds are expected throughout the period with the
primary flight category being VFR, but there may be periods of MVFR
due to low cloud ceilings.  We kept them as VCSH with the sporadic
nature of these showers. If a shower goes over the terminal, periods
of MVFR to IFR will be possible due to visibility rescrictions and
cloud height restrictions. A lull of precip is expected after 00z
tonight, but another round of showers are possible later tomorrow
morning.

KCOS and KPUB:

Dry air entrained early into the region mixing out any fog in the
area this morning. With those northerlies in place, I think it`ll be
hard for precip to form over KCOS and KPUB throughout the forecast
period, therefore VFR conditions are expected. KPUB has the higher
chance at a showers developing, so if that happens MVFR conditions
are possible with the best time frame being 18z today through 00z
tonight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for COZ065-066.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for COZ067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon MDT Sunday for
COZ067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT
Sunday for COZ072>075-079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...WANKOWSKI
AVIATION...SKELLY


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