Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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725
FXUS65 KPUB 101842
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1142 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. PUEBLO HAS RAPIDLY WARMED THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY MIXING. THE RECORD HIGH FROM 1962 IS 75 DEGREES...AND
THAT MAY BE IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

..WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY BRING WARMING
ALOFT.  AT THE SFC...LEE TROF WILL KICK EASTWARD...WITH WEST WINDS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE MTS/I-25 CORRIDOR SPREADING EASTWARD BY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL PROMOTE GOOD MIXING AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 70S FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS TODAY. STILL SOME SNOW COVER TO DEAL WITH ACROSS EL PASO AND
CROWLEY COUNTIES TODAY WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES AS ENERGY GOES INTO SNOW MELT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SAFE FOR KCOS (70 DEGREES SET IN 1962). KPUB MAY COME
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT RECORD OF 75 DEGREES IN 1962...BUT THINK IT MAY
COME UP JUST SHY BY A COUPLE DEGREES. KALS RECORD ALSO APPEARS SAFE
(60 DEGREES IN 1962)WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 40S BENEATH INVERSION.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY PARTICULARLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUST POTENTIAL
COMING DOWN A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT ALOFT SLACKENS WITH
INCOMING RIDGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...THOUGH A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND BANK UP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
THIS SHOULD KEEP WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS CONFINED TO A NARROWER
RIBBON ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTS. SO LOCATIONS LIKE
KCOS AND KPUB MAY BE A TAD COOLER TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF. -KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED FROM RECENT METEOROLOGICAL REASONING
WITH TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW GRADE POPS AT TIMES
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

LATEST LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT BASICALLY
DRY CONDITIONS(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS AT TIMES) SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN
COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE NOTED
FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY SURGE IMPACTING EASTERN SECTIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A 1046 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
BY 00Z SATURDAY. 1047 MB SURFACE HIGH IS THEN PROJECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST INTO OHIO BY 12Z SUNDAY AS NEXT ROUND OF
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING/SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
BY LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY.

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THIS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH/SURFACE SURGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING...LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN LOCALIZED LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES WILL BE NOTED
OVER PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN SECTIONS BY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. ALSO...SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...PRIMARILY FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
FINALLY...WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE
NOTED THURSDAY WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
BREEZY WEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT KPUB.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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