Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271758
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1158 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. REDUCED POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY BASED ON WEBCAMS...OBS...AND LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
SAWATCH RANGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR THE SW
MTS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS. E OF THE MTS...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR EL PASO COUNTY...AND ALSO INTRODUCED POPS OVER THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD CONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AMONG SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM...THAT SCT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER EL PASO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN SOME BANDED PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LOWER
ARKANSAS FROM AROUND 00-03Z THIS EVENING. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED...BUT PER SOUNDINGS A SATURATED LAYER FROM ROUGHLY H8 TO
H6 SHOULD DEVELOP IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM POP AND SKY
COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

...CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...COOLER...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT...

A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM WITH THE FREMONT PASS...MONARCH PASS AND
LEADVILLE CAMS ALL SHOWING SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WET ROADS.
ALSO...THE LEADVILLE ASOS HAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.

SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND SNOWFALL SHOULD ALREADY BE WINDING
DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING.  AFTER THAT...SOME
VERY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ONLY SPOTTY PRECIP AT
BEST...AND MOSTLY JUST AROUND THE PIKES PEAK REGION.  SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH
IN THIS RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE
AMOUNTS BEING DEPICTED ARE VERY LIGHT.  BELIEVE IT IS A MODEL
RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.  WHILE SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE JET MOVING
THROUGH...IT WOULD TAKE SOME WORK TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE PRECIP TO THE SURFACE.  SO...MAYBE SOME
LIGHT SPOTTY STUFF...BUT PROBABLY NOTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT.  AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE THERE HAS REALLY NOT
BEEN ONE YET THIS FALL.  THE SEVERITY OF THE FREEZE WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  IF THERE IS TOO MUCH OF EITHER...NOT SO HARD
OF A FREEZE.  HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE WINDS GO
LIGHT...THEN THERE COULD BE A HARD...KILLING...FREEZE.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW.  LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE
WHETHER OR NOT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZE WARNING WHEN MORE
DATA COMES IN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED. VERY COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TUE MORNING...BUT ONE WILD CARD WILL BE HOW STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING WHICH WOULD AFFECT TEMPS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUCH A COLD
START...MAX TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO AROUND 60F FOR
THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR WED AND THU FOR CONTINUE DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WED MORN ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY...SO ANOTHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED THEN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL SHIFT
THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SW DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND PCPN CHANCES RETURN TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT...AND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EC AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN FOCUS THE ENERGY MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
CO...SO AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR THE MTS. THE INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KOS AFTER
20Z AND LASTING THROUGH 06Z. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT KCOS
OR VC KCOS. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AT KPUB WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM
21Z THROUGH 04Z...BUT PROB IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE
TAF. CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 06Z AND LEAD TO VFR FOR THE
BALANCE OF TUESDAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085>089-093>098.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



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