Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191556
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
956 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
MODEL DATA AND TRENDS AND MAY CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EL
PASO...TELLER COUNTIES AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCARS AROUND 18Z
WHEN WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE SET TO EXPIRE.

STILL SOME CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING...MAINLY
OVER SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM DATA INDICATING CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND OVER 60KTS OF SHEAR...SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SUPER CELL DEVELOPING...IF
THE CAPE CAN BE REALIZED. THE NSSL WRF DOES HAVE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...AS DOES THE HRRR...THOUGH HRRR
CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING...

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING ABOVE 10 KFT IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS
EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST GAUGES ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR ARE REPORTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
FALLEN...AND RUNOFF COULD BE PRODUCING LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.
RIVER GAUGES INDICATE THAT FOUNTAIN CREEK IS RUNNING HIGH.

TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO INCH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-25 WHERE UPSLOPE AND FORCING ARE MAXIMIZED. SNOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10 KFT. THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
SEE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN THIS MORNING. MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER...AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MOST
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF THIS WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THE
TWO OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...WITH ONE BEING DRY AND THE OTHER WET
ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OFF THE WEST COAST. EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. WEAK STEERING FLOWS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST WITH A STRONG LEAD DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
RIVER FLOODING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AND A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HALF INCH HAIL. SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...GENERALLY ABOVE 10 KFT...AND A FEW
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH ENSEMBLES EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE WEST COAST...AND
LIFTS IT ACROSS UTAH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT KEEPS SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...AND TAKES IT ACROSS COLORADO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD HELP ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND HELP PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTIONS...HAVE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

STEADIER HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
DURING THE 13-15 UTC TIME FRAME. SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. LOWER CIGS...MVFR WILL BE LIKELY AT
KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-084-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-060-063-073-
075-080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ059-061-066-
068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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