000
FXUS65 KPUB 140107
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
707 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. KPUX INDICATING A FINE LINE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY
WITH DEW PT INCREASING FROM 32F TO 41F HERE AT PUB WHEN BOUNDARY
WENT BY. STILL WATCHING A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS TO THE ROYAL GORGE AND BLACK FOREST FIRES THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

..CONCERNS ARE MANY INCLUDING WINDS OVER THE BLACK FOREST TONIGHT
AND SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...

FOR THE BLACK FOREST FIRE...SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH
AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30. HUMIDITY VALUES MAY STAY UP ABOVE
15% BUT WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE. ADDITIONALLY...HI RES
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE PLAINS...CAPE IS ABOVE 2000 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS...DWPTS ARE
MIXING OUT A BIT BUT BELIEVE MANY AREAS WILL STAY AT LEAST INTO THE
40S. SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS.
SPC ISSUED AN MD FOR THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WE MAY
SEE A FEW SVR STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE BLACK FOREST BURN AREA INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS NOT
TRADITIONAL WIND FLOW FOR THE EL PASO COUNTY REGION. WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED  WITH A SOUTHWEST LLVL JET WHICH WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING. NOT ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS SCENARIO. BY
LATER TONIGHT...HRRR MODEL SHOW COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE BURN AREA
WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DWPTS MOVING INTO THE AREA. I AM NOT 100%
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BUT IT IS A POSSIBILITY.

IN A NUTSHELL...SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NON TRADITIONAL OVER THE
BURN AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE ROYAL GORGE FIRE...DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY
THE LLVL SW`ERLY JET AND WE MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH OVER
THE ROYAL GORGE AREA THIS EVENING INTO LATER TONIGHT.

TOMORROW...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TOMORROW SCENARIO. A COOL FRONT
SHOULD MOVE DOWN TO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY SHOWERS AND
TSRA ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE BLACK FOREST
FIRE...HIGHER RH VALUES WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE BURN AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR RED FLAG CONCERNS...WE MAY SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS ONLY. ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES HEADED IN TO NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM/GFS/EC ALL SHOW A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES RAIN OVER THE SCAR. THE CURRENT WILD
FIRE AREAS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
THOSE AREAS.

MONDAY...A DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL NORTH OF COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE MOIST EAST NORTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE
EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE GFS AND EC BEGIN TO DIFFER DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EC KEEPS A
CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...QUASISTATIONARY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW EASTWARD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS LEADS TO
THE GFS BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION FASTER THAN THE EC.
EITHER WAY IT LOOKS AS IF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...LEADING TO POSSIBLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE
TAF SITES (KCOS/KPUB/KALS). LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

SOME SMOKE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER KCOS LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PJC
AVIATION...HODANISH