Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171755
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1055 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Quick update to increase fog coverage across El Paso County. The
latest obs and webcams across the area indicate fog becoming more
widespread this morning. This will cause reduced visibilities and
perhaps a few slick roadways across the region. Fog should
dissipate by 10 am.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Currently...areas of light snow, rain and fog will continue across
much of Southern Colorado through sunrise.  Radar trends have shown
a decrease in coverage over the past couple of hours and we expect
this to continue.  Temperatures have been near steady overnight with
upper 20s to lower 30s across the Plains.  This could lead to a few
slick spots for the morning commute with temperatures hovering
around the freezing mark.

This morning...weak energy aloft wrapping around a broad upper low
over the Desert Southwest will keep light rain and snow going
through around 8 am this morning across much of the region.  This
matches well with the NAM 3km and HRRR model runs this morning.
Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 20s to lower 30s this
morning.  Areas of fog will continue through 10 am across the San
Luis Valley and over the Eastern Plains which will reduce area
visibilities on roadways.

This afternoon and tonight...the broad upper low over the Desert
Southwest is forecast to drift northeast into western Kansas by late
tonight.  This will force flow aloft from northeasterly to
northwesterly providing a drying downslope component across the
region.  This should keep the area dry once precipitation dissipates
this morning.  The exception may be for isolated light snow showers
over the San Juan and southern Sangre de Cristo mountain ranges.
Models are not in great agreement over the southern mountains, so
left them dry for now.  If snow does develop it will be light and
should remain less than an inch.

Afternoon highs today will be cool with generally upper 30s to lower
40s across the region.  Clearing tonight should help temperatures
drop into the 20s across the region for overnight lows.  Any wet
spots on roadways could freeze leading to a few slick areas
Wednesday morning. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

...Dry and Warmer then Cooler and More Active...

Remnants of old upper low will linger over eastern Colorado through
Wednesday.  Old upper low might possibly squeeze out a few snow
showers over the southern mountains Wednesday but old low is filling
and will be pretty weak by then.  So, prospects for additional
precip are looking pretty low.  Temperatures Wednesday will warm
back to near or above average levels.

On Thursday, temporary ridging will move across Colorado for a dry
and relatively mild day.  Temperatures will rise above average at
most locations.

Thursday night through Saturday, the pattern turns more active
again. Thursday evening, a series of disturbances will begin to
track across the southwest U.S., bringing snow to the Continental
Divide, scattered snow showers to the eastern mountains and spotty
rain or snow showers to the plains. These disturbances will also
bring bouts of wind to the region associated with Pacific cold
fronts moving through. The Continental Divide will see the most snow
through the period with new snow accumulations of several more
inches likely. Across the eastern mountains and plains, the best
chance for precipitation will probably be on Saturday as a quick
moving closed low passes through the panhandle region during the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will be
pretty close to averages for this time of year.

On Sunday, another brief break in the action will arrive as a
shortwave ridge of high pressure moves over the region. This should
generally bring a break in precipitation through the day before the
next round moves into the Continental Divide Sunday evening. Temps
on Sunday will remain fairly close to averages for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

ALS...

VFR conditions should be prominent throughout the forecast period.
Low-level saturation may cause some scattered low-level clouds.
There is a potential for fog during the overnight as winds remain
light and variable, amendments will be made if needed.


COS...

Initial conditions are at MVFR transitioning to VFR within the
hour, 19Z. Low-level clouds will remain, but VFR conditions should
be observed throughout the forecast period.

PUB...

Persisting fog should lift relatively quickly.  Conditions have been
improving rapidly. Light and variable winds shift towards the
northwest around 04Z still remaining light and variable.  VFR
condition will be intact throughout the forecast period with the
exception of MVFR conditions around 18Z.

Skelly

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...SKELLY


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