Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 192137
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...RAIN WINDING DOWN...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING DRIER AIR WITHIN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
THIS TIME. THIS...ALONG WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS HAS LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING OUT
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTS. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY ACROSS THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...AND HAVE CANCELED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG AND OR LIGHT DRIZZLE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS SLOWLY
ERODING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
WITH MODEST CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR OF 35-45KTS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS IN 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MODERATE EASTERLY GRADIENT PLUS WEAK WARM ADVECTION LIFT WILL KEEP
SOME -SHRA/-TSRA GOING WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT
AS UPWARD MOTION PERSISTS. NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ONSHORE
THU...WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THU/THU NIGHT. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS/ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION
THU AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS
ROLLING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. FRI THEN LOOKS
DRIER BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE...PLUS SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING AS
WESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SAT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING MORE ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH WHILE GFS SHOWS FAIRLY HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY FAR WEST ON SAT...AS LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
MERIDIONAL...SUGGESTING ENHANCED TSRA CHANCES SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION SAT...AS LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. ON SUN...ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THAN THE
GFS...THOUGH BOTH MODELS DO SUGGEST ENOUGH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE BY
SUN EVENING FOR -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WHILE SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD THE DRIER GFS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH TOUGH TO ELIMINATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA FROM THE
FORECAST MOST AREAS BOTH MON/TUE. MAX TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM FROM
THU INTO SAT...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY SUN AS TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. SOME GRADUAL WARMING THEN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW LATE MAY AVERAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT COS AND PUB
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING. IFR
AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT 06Z WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING WITHIN CONTINUING MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFT 16Z WITH SHRA AND
ISOLATED -TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINAL AFT 20Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-20KT WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFT 06Z WITH ALMOST AN INCH OF RAIN RECORDED TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY STRATUS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ATTM.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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