Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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423
FXUS65 KPUB 300423
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1023 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Lowered Winter Storm Warning for northern Sangres and Wets.
Reports and radar indicate things winding down there. Also,
extended freeze warning down to Huerfano and western Las Animas
Counties for early tomorrow morning. Thinking is that as
snow/clouds move out, freeze to set in. With no other winter
highlight out for that area beginning 12z, need something to
cover the hard freeze potential.

UPDATE Issued at 957 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Lowered Winter Storm Warning for northern Sangres and Wets.
Reports and radar indicate things winding down there. Also,
extended freeze warning down to Huerfano and western Las Animas
Counties for early tomorrow morning. Thinking is that as
snow/clouds move out, freeze to set in. With no other winter
highlight out for that area beginning 12z, need something to
cover the hard freeze potential.

UPDATE Issued at 728 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Winter Storm Warning for Pueblo County and the Wet Mountain Valley
allowed to expire. Snow showers will continue through the evening
across the previously warned area but widespread, heavy accumulations
are no longer expected as the upper low edges east of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Heavy snow continuing over the southeast plains tonight...

Upper low slowly lifting E-NE through NM this afternoon, with bands
of moderate to heavy snow rotating northward across the ern half of
Colorado. Web cam/radar/satellite data suggest heavier snow was
coming to an end along the Continental Divide and over most interior
valleys, and will let advisories for these areas end with the latest
forecast. One last band of slightly heavier snow will rotate toward
Colorado Springs through about 22z which may produce another inch or
so, but overall, snowfall intensity was waning across both El
Paso/Teller counties, and will let the warning for these areas end
as well. Farther south and east, radar loop suggests snowfall
increasing again over the southeast plains and will keep warning
products for the remainder of the ern mountains and plains unchanged
into the evening. By late evening, emphasis for heaviest snow will
shift to areas along the KS border, where several more inches of
snow will likely accumulate by early Sun morning. Winds will
increase enough to produce some blowing snow at times on the plains,
but given rather wet/sticky nature of snowfall, not sure we`ll be
able to drive visibility below 1/4 mile long enough for full blown
blizzard conditions. Given snow on the ground and potential for lows
in the mid 20s, will hoist a freeze warning for El
Paso/Fremont/Pueblo counties overnight, but will hold off on any
highlights for areas under the winter storm warnings and just
mention freezing temps in the WSW.

On Sunday, low lifts far enough east to end snow by mid-morning,
with only some minor additional accums near the KS border early in
the day. North winds will remain brisk across the area behind the
departing low, with gusts over 30 kts on the plains into late
afternoon. Snow cover will melt quickly with strong late April sun,
though enough of a snow pack will remain to hold maxes back
somewhat, especially back toward the eastern mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Ensembles and models in general agreement through the extended
period with active weather until mid week, and drier high pressure
by late week into the weekend.

Sunday night through Monday...the large upper level low is
forecast to lift out of eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes with
broad northwesterly flow across Colorado. Weak energy moving
through the flow will lead to scattered shower activity over the
Central Mountains Sunday night into Monday, with more isolated
activity spreading east into the Palmer Divide region on Monday.
Temperatures will be cold Sunday night with lows falling into the
upper 20s to lower 30s. These freezing conditions will need to be
monitored, and those with sensitive vegetation should continue to
take protective actions. Highs on Monday will depend on remaining
snow cover, with snow free areas reaching into the lower 60s,
while areas with remaining snow only top out in the 50s.

Tuesday through Wednesday...the next upper level storm system is
forecast to drop south out of Utah and across Colorado Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. Expect snow to increase along the
Continental Divide by Tuesday afternoon. Over the Plains, a cold
front is forecast to arrive by Tuesday evening with strong
northerly winds filling in behind the front through the overnight
hours. Models in good agreement with a band of moderate to heavy
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Plains. This
system is not quite as cold, with snow levels likely remaining
above 6 kft, with rain across most of the Plains. Several inches
of snow are possible over the higher elevations as this system
moves across the region. This system is quick moving, and should
be southeast of the area by Wednesday evening with clearing
conditions overnight.

Thursday through Saturday...high pressure over the western states
will shift east across Colorado. This will allow for warming and
dry conditions heading into the weekend. Temperatures are expected
to reach back into the 70s by Friday and pushing the lower 80s for
the weekend. As the high pressure starts to move into Central
Plains on Saturday, flow aloft will transitions southwesterly
which may lead to a few showers along the Continental Divide
Saturday afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

At KALS...Snow chances decreasing through the afternoon, though a
few -shsn may drift east of the Sangres into the valley and will
keep a vcsh mention into early evening. Then VFR overnight into
Sunday. Winds will remain gusty out of the E-NE until after sunset.

At KCOS...Snow will gradually diminish through late afternoon, with
MVFR conditions until early evening, then VFR overnight and through
the day Sunday. N-NE winds will remain strong into Sun, with gusts
25-30 kts through the period.

At KPUB...Still a few more hours of MVFR into late afternoon, with
strong Nly downslope winds then gradually bringing improving
conditions this evening. Expect VFR overnight and Sun, with gusty N
winds continuing.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM MDT Sunday for COZ089-093-
095>099.

Freeze Warning from 6 AM to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ087-088.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ074-075-087-
088.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ094.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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