Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222115
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WILL KEEP DISCUSSION BRIEF DUE TO ACTIVE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING STORM
ACTIVITY...SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY
DECREASES AROUND MIDNIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA.

THEN...FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROJECT THAT MORE
TRANQUIL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
DISTRICT AS BASICALLY DRIER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. ISOLATED PRIMARILY LATER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS AND SELECTED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATER SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVE WX IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY. AREA WILL BE UNDER A RATHER UNIQUE WX PATTERN AS DEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL COVER THE FCST AREA. THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AZ EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE DAKOTAS. AREAS JUST EAST OF THIS AXIS...INCLUDING SE
CO...WILL BE UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO
MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER. TEMPS ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE M/U80S WILE 70S WILL BE OVER THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
TERRAIN FORCED AND MAINLY OVER THE SW MTNS.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE WX WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ABOUT
A DAY QUICKER WITH A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WHILE THE EC
IS SLOWER. WE WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
STARTING LATER SAT WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT EXTENT THIS TROUGH WILL PLAY ON
OUR WX. ATTM...IT APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE
C MTN AREA...BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE KPUB AND KCOS TAF SITES. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
THEN PROJECTED AFTER 04Z TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS DRIER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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