Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291823
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1223 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED TO BOOST MAX TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY.  -KT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST
QPF EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE REGION AT 3 AM...MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME SE COL PLAINS...AND FROM ROUGHLY LIMON TO PUEBLO TO
WALSENBURG. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS...MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL...WERE
NOTED OVER THE REGION. DWPTS HAVE RECOVERED OVER THE PLAINS AS
VALUES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND 50S OVER MOST
OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS. FAR SE COLORADO...KSPD...HAD A 63 DWPT.

TODAY...

PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. SHOWERS OVER FAR SE
COLO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE...AND EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO OCCUR ACROSS THE RATON MESA/SPANISH
PEAKS REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE REST OF THE S
MTNS AND AS FAR N AS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS TODAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEYS...AND 70S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG TH CO/NM BORDER REGION
UNTIL MID EVENING AND THEN ALL THE PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS ADJ TO THE NM BORDER.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE AOA 60F PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MONSOONAL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST AND BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP
KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT INTO THE PLAINS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY...IN WHICH MODELS BRING STRONGER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA...HELPING TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS COULD CHANGE...AS
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PINPOINTING THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH GENERALLY 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GREATER MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY...KALS MAY STAND THE
BEST CHANCE FOR -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...AND WILL
CARRY IT IN THE TAF FOR THAT AREA. KCOS MAY ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR VCTS AFTER 22Z...BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF. MAJORITY OF THE -TSRA
SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH SOME LINGERING -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A VFR
STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHICH COULD AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB AFTER 09Z. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT



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