000
FXUS65 KPUB 241723
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS TODAY...

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE THREAT OF SVR WX FOR
THE ERN CO PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z. DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 50S E OF THE MTS...AND WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE
WINDS THIS MORN...AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVR SE CO
AND THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO RETREAT
TODAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND ALONG WITH SOME HEATING ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
BY MID MORNING...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE A RATHER MODEST
CAP THAT IS PRESENT TODAY. COULD BE A RELATIVELY EARLY INITIATION
E OF I-25...BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH
BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX.
MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL...WITH FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE N AND E THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL SEE SOME CLEARING OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS TS
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD NR THE KS BORDER. SHOULD SEE MOST
OF THE AREA CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS INTO KS.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET DAY. LOW CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING...HANGING ON LONGEST OVR NRN EL PASO.
H7 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND
HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH BETTER RH EXPECTED
TODAY AND LACK OF STRONG WRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH
VALUES AND STRONGER WINDS SHIFTING OVER ERN ZONES...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT WIDESPREAD TODAY SO HAVE CANCELED
THE BULK OF THE FIRE WX WATCH. WILL CONVERT FREMONT COUNTY...ZONES
222...TO A WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST SHOT OF SEEING SOLID RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
ALSO WILL SEE CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT FUEL STATUS DOES NOT SUPPORT
A RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS WILL BE UNDER HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER TODAY AND PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT FIRES SHOULD BE TAKEN
REGARDLESS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY. DRY
LINE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST. MODELS KEEP THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOSTLY IN BACA COUNTY. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WHICH
WILL MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT. CURRENT DAY 2 OUTLOOK DOES NOT
HAVE THIS REGION OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEST OF THE DRY
LINE...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
CURRENTLY...ONLY THE ZONES IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ARE CRITICAL
ALONG WITH ZONE 233. WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...HAVE CONCERNS THAT
WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND DID NOT
INCLUDE ZONE 233 IN THE WATCH.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ON SUNDAY...DRY
LINE WILL BE NEAR BACA COUNTY...BUT THE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE
DRY LINE WILL BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY. BY MONDAY...DRY LINE WILL
BE EAST OF THE STATE. GRIDS HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS NEAR BACA
COUNTY ON BOTH DAYS. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW OVER THE
REGION...AND HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MAIN CONCERN FOR REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA IS THE WIND SPEEDS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL EC AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE
TROUGH WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF COLORADO. BUT...BELIEVE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WOULD BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER
WEST ONTO THE PLAINS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE 3 MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
KCOS AND KPUB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF I25. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-225>227.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOORE