Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261849
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1149 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

NICE WARM UP UNDERWAY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. UPDATED FORECAST TO BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR KCOS...AS WE ARE ALREADY NEAR THE OLD FORECAST
HIGH OF 63 DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR KALS
WHERE WE WERE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 YESTERDAY. SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HIT THIS MARK OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. SHOULD GET PRETTY
CLOSE TO RECORDS TODAY FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB...WHICH ARE 68
DEGREES IN 1982...AND 74 IN 1951 RESPECTIVELY. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

...UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH MID MORNING.  WESTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND WILL HELP
US WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN COLORADO.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR
COLORADO SPRINGS  AND PUEBLO.

RECORDS FOR PUEBLO...74 IN 1951 AND COLORADO SPRINGS...68 IN 1982.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR PUEBLO...72 AND COLORADO SPRINGS...63.

A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY LATE TONIGHT FORCING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ONLY DROP INTO THE 30S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

...DRY AND MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN COOLER AND WETTER...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER BAJA WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...JUST CLIPPING THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES BY.  PRECIP CHANCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE PRETTY LOW AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTH OF MONARCH PASS...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER
COLORADO AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES.
ASIDE FROM THIS...JUST DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ON THURSDAY...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO TAKE
PLACE.  THE MORNING WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY AND MILD AGAIN...BUT
BY AFTERNOON...CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL THEN LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE REGION RIGHT ON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...DRY AND MILD WEATHER SHOULD RETURN AGAIN AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE WEST.

THERE ARE BIG QUESTIONS REGARDING THE THURSDAY...FRIDAY...SATURDAY
STORM SYSTEM.  FORECAST MODELS ARE PROVIDING ALL KINDS OF POTENTIAL
BUT NO CERTAINTY.  THERE ARE PRIMARILY 2 SEPARATE SYSTEMS TO WATCH
IN ORDER TO DETERMINE HOW THIS STORM WILL PLAY OUT OVER COLORADO.
THE MODELS ARE BOUNCING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.
ONE SCENARIO BRINGS A LARGE MASS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME A SHOT OF COLD CANADIAN AIR
DROPS SOUTH. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THESE 2 FEATURES RESULTS IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. BUT...A SECOND SCENARIO HAS
A DIFFERENT TIMING OF THINGS. IT BRINGS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT IT
DOESN`T BRING THE COLD AIR IN UNTIL LATER SATURDAY WHEN THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...THE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO IS NOT NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE...AND THE PRECIP FALLS AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW.

THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS THE COLD...SNOWY SCENARIO WHILE THE 06Z
RUN OF THE MODEL HAS THE WARMER...MORE SHOWERY SCENARIO. THE 00Z
ECMWF HAS THE COLD...SNOWY SCENARIO. IF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR CAN GET HERE AT THE SAME TIME...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL SEE A
GOOD SNOWSTORM. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE COLD AIR GETS HERE TOO
LATE...PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE A LOT LESS.
TOO EARLY TO CALL YET. STILL 3 TO 5 DAYS OUT. MUCH TO BE RESOLVED.
STAY TUNED. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF SITES
WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 12 KTS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT



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