Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281101
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
501 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A
BETTER COVERAGE OF ECHOES SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND EASTERN
MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AOA 9000 FT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE
UPGRADED MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO WARNINGS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...1 TO LOCALLY 2 FEET OF WET
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MTS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE
LOWER MT AREAS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...THE WET MT
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 WINTER STORM WARNINGS GO INTO
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ALL THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AT NOON...WITH WINTER STORM
WARNINGS GOING INTO EFFECT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN (INCLUDING N EL PASO COUNTY) AT 6 PM. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SNOW ACCUMS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...1 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY...MAKING FOR A MESSY FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT...WITH
THE GREATEST ACCUMS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE LATEST NAM IS INDICATING CAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
BACA COUNTY. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE THETA-E AXIS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES.  AT ANY RATE...THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY
FRI...THEN CRAWLS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR
THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON FRI...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASING W-NW OVERNIGHT. RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND 6000
FEET FRI MORNING WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD TO ABOUT 7000 FEET DURING
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND PRECIP INTENSITY
DECREASES...WITH A SLUSHY FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
COLORADO SPRINGS BEFORE SWITCH BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM CANON CITY
WESTWARD THROUGH SALIDA AND UP TO BUENA VISTA COULD ALSO SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
MOST MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-7K FEET. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HOLD STORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DOWN. STILL APPEARS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THU-FRI WILL EXCEED AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH POCKETS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL FRI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 30S/40S ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS FIRST UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE
SECONDARY ENERGY CARVES OUT A NEW LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. TOUGH TO
RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST ZONES THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AS UPPER
LOW OVER AZ SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPWARD
MOTION STRENGTHENS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TURNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
SHOULD THUS SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNING TO MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS
FROM OVERNIGHT SAT INTO AT LEAST MON MORNING. MAY NEED A NEW ROUND
OF HIGHLIGHTS FOR SNOW FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS...THOUGH IN GENERAL
28/00Z MODELS HAVE LESS PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW THAN SOLUTIONS
FROM 24 HRS AGO. WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH AND TEMPS COOL SUN
INTO MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON EVENING AS LOW WALLOWS
BACK NORTH AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THOUGH WITH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO FIRE AT LEAST ISOLATED WEAK
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE INTO THU.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TUE...THEN PUSH
TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WED/THU AS HEIGHT FINALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WAA WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS AT ALS...COS AND PUB THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND COS AND PUB TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR COS INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY AS -RA MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER PUB

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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