Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPUB 301737
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1137 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES AND RATON MESA REGION TODAY AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME
SPOTTY HEAVY PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. THIS AREA IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAS ANIMAS COUNTY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE
OVER LESS THAN 1/8TH OF THE ZONE. FURTHER...ONLY THE 12Z NAM12
THUS FAR IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER QPF MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z GFS...AND 00Z HIGH RES MODELS KEEP
ACTION FARTHER SOUTH. SO WILL HOLD OFF AND SEE HOW SITUATION
EVOLVES. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY...

CURRENTLY...LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ABOUT 60 OR SO MILES SOUTH OF THE
CO/NM BORDER. OVER THE PUB CWFA...NO PRECIP WAS BEING INDICATED BY
RADAR...AND MAINLY MID TO HI CLOUDINESS WAS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AS DEWPTS WERE IN THE 60S OVER THE FAR E PLAINS...WITH
50-55F DWPTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. 40 DWPTS WERE GENERALLY NOTED
IN THE MTNS/VALLEYS.

TODAY...

HI RES GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SOME OF THE RAIN OVER NM NWD INTO FAR
S COLO THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE SOME RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BORDER...THE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

LATER TODAY...WITH HEATING AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1500
RANGE...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE OVER THE S SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ACROSS THE S SAN JUANS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALL
OF THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF ISOLD STORMS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
TODAY...WITH U80S/90 ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS.

RAIN CHANCES BETTER TODAY FOR A FEW REASONS...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS
BETTER AND DEEPER UPSLOPE...WITH WINDS AT 700 MB EVEN FROM THE EAST.
BETTER DEEPER MSTR IS IN PLACE AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
YDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE S SANGRES AND S SAN JUANS. HOWEVER...ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NAM WANTS TO KEEP A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS OVER
THE SE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE. BEST CHANCE I
BELIEVE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATION GENERALLY AROUND SUNSET. WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP STORMS ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BEING TIED
TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE LATEST GFS HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
ALSO BRINGS A DISTURBANCE NORTH ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES WITH INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES...HAVE JUST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER TODAY
WHICH LEADS TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. KALS AND KCOS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING AT 19-20Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 23Z. ITS
POSSIBLE KPUB MAY NEED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA...BUT HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE...SO WILL MAINTAIN AS A VCTS GROUP FOR
NOW. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON
HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE KCOS
AND KPUB TERMINALS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS...AND MODELS SUGGEST LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THIS THREAT SOME...SO WILL
KEEP TAFS VFR FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.