Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 071653
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1053 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS...PARTICULARLY
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO COOLED DOWN MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK IS
LIKELY TO HOLD IN STRONG DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PLAY
HAVOC WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONTDVD MOST LIKELY
TO SEE THE HEAVIER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH
EASTWARD...SUSPECT THEY WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER STABLE AIRMASS AND
BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. FOR THE
PLAINS...JUST NOT ENOUGH STABILITY THERE TO MAINTAIN
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL GRIDS PORTRAY THIS SCENARIO WELL. MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SUSPECT THAT
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE BASED ON GREATER
INSTABILITY...THOUGH EVEN THE SE MTS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS MAY
RECEIVE SOME PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE RUNOFF
PROBLEMS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CURRENTLY...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...DOWN INTO THE I-
25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH LOWER
60S ACROSS THE REGION.

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
UTAH IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AT
THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOIST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT THE LOW
STRATUS...FOG AND LIGHT RAINFALL TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  HIGH-RES
MODELS BRING THIS PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 8 TO 9 AM...WITH AREAS
NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS HANGING ON THE LONGEST.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS VARY ON LOCATIONS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WITH SEVERAL
MODELS FAVORING THE SAN JUAN AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGES...WHILE OTHER PREFER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TELLER
COUNTY.  GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...MOST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LEE SLOPES THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST AREAS EAST OF I-25 WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COOL LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A
MINIMUM FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY
WITH 60S TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER UTAH MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  A FEW OF
THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS...NAM AND GFS...BRING A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AS THE DISTURBANCE EJECTS
OUT....BUT ALL HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DIE THIS AREA OFF BEFORE IT
REACHES THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...CONTINUED COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE THEN WARMING AND
DRYING BY THE WEEKEND...

A SERIES OF MOIST DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...SO
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. OTHER
THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCAL PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN
35 KNOTS...MEANING THAT MOST STORMS WILL NOT ROTATE SIGNIFICANTLY
AND REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...VALUES WILL HIT 35-40
KNOTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DRYING THINGS OUT
AND WARMING THEM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RETROGRADES INTO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW...THE HIGH MAY DRIFT WESTWARD ENOUGH TO NEARLY SHUT DOWN
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOW MUCH DRYING WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

KALS...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH VARYING CIGS TO
AROUND 2 KFT THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY FROM 17Z THROUGH AROUND 00Z/WED.
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND FOG.  A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.  CIGS WILL LIKELY
BE SLOW TO RISE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH REDUCED
VIS AND CIGS AS THEY PASS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.

KPUB...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING DUE TO
LOW STRATUS...FOG AND LIGHT RAINFALL.  EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KPUB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...KEEPING THE
TERMINAL DRY.  ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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