Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291704
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED FOR CANCELLATION OF FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES UNDER NW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPS COMING IN A BIT COOLER AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE HIT THE FREEZING
MARK AS OF 4 AM...SO CURRENT FREEZE/FROST HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND
WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH 9 AM AS SCHEDULED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. 700 AND 850 MB MODEL TEMPS ARE
INDICATING AROUND 4C OF WARMING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO EXPECT MAX
TEMPS AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS AND IN THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
MOORE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A COOL DOWN FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF THE STATE.  THIS
SHOULD KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES TO VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
MEANWHILE WESTERN AREAS SHOULD FEEL LITTLE AFFECT FROM THIS FRONT
WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY.  ONLY PERCEIVABLE
DIFFERENCE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS WIND
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN A
LITTLE.  THURSDAY NIGHT...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ANOTHER FROST OR FREEZE...AND DEPENDING ON THE DURATION OF TONIGHTS
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHT MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE THREAT SOME...BUT TOO SOON TO SAY
AT THIS POINT.

MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND A LONGWAVE
TROF/CLOSED LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. MODELS HOLD OFF ON ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT TIMING SEEMS TO BE WAVERING FROM RUN TO RUN.  HAVE
DECREASED POPS SOME FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY...SO MOUNTAIN
AREAS COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES.  MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE WARMING FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR FRIDAY.  WINDS INCREASE BUT
APPEARS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP COOL SFC HIGH IN PLACE
SO DROPPED BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS TARGETED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE CONTDVD...THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT. THE EASTERN SAN JUANS
WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY
OROGRAPHIC FLOW. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE MAINLY WIND WITH THIS EVENT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AND DEW POINTS IN THE MODELS ARE NOT
ALL THAT LOW.  SUNDAY HOWEVER...GFS SUGGESTS DRYING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND THIS COULD PUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR UNDER THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE TROF OUT WEST DURING THE LONGER RANGES.   ENERGY DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST DEPARTING SYSTEM CAVES OUT A TROF ACROSS
UT/NV SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FOR MONDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF NOW TAKE THIS SYSTEM DOWN INTO NRN
OLD MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS KEEPS THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...THOUGH WE COULD SEE A ROUND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  OVERALL...ANY PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CO LOOKS
LIGHT AT THIS POINT.  DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE ANOTHER HARD FREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW CLIMO AGAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY MID WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS OLD MEXICO EVENTUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD...THOUGH MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK.  OVERALL...ITS STILL A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THIS WEEKEND.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28



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