Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290519

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017


Skies mostly clear over the region this afternoon. A few light
showers were noted north of the CWA, mainly in the Front Range
mountains and along and N of the CO/WY-NE border. temps were
relatively cool at 2 pm were in the L70s across the plains and 50s
and 60s in the valleys. Temps in the mtns were rather cool, with 20s
and 30s.

Rest of today and into tonight...

Can`t rule out some isold showers over the mtns late this afternoon
and early evening, with the best chance across the southern Sangres
and C mtn regions. However, expect skies to remain mostly clear
across the fcst area.

A cool front will move down the plain later tonight and this will
bring some clouds to the lower elevations. Some guidance was showing
some showers over the plains but believe this is a bit over done.
Min temps tonight should reach into the 40s lower elevations with
30s valleys and 10s and 20s in the mtns.


Moist upslope flow will develop over the plains and expect we will
see an uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the region by tomorrow
afternoon. CAPE values will range in the 400 to 800 J/KG range with
shear values 0f 25 to 35 knts. Given these values we will likely see
a strong storm or two, but significant severe is not expected at this
time. Best coverage of storms late tomorrow afternoon will be along
the mtns/plains interface and I-25 corridor region.

Max temps tomorrow will be quite similar to today...with mainly 70s
across the plains with 60s on the divides. Valleys will be in the
60s and 70s. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Monday night-Wednesday night...Upper level ridging progged to
slowly build across the Rockies into the middle of next week, with
models indicating enough moisture in place to support daily rounds
of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through this
period. Greatest coverage of storms are expected to be over and near
the higher terrain, through the afternoon with storms then possibly
developing and moving across the eastern plains through the evening
hours before diminishing through the late evening and overnight
hours. With generally weak flow aloft, storms that do develop are
not expected to be severe, though could see a few stronger storms
across the far southeast plains, where the best low level moisture
will be in place. Temperatures look to be at or slightly above
seasonal levels through the middle of the week, with highs generally
in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations, and mainly 50s and
60s across the higher terrain.

Thursday-Sunday...There remains some differences in longer range
models, with the GFS indicating a trough digging across the Great
Basin Wedensday night which continues across the Rockies Thursday
and Thursday night before moving into the High Plains on Friday. The
ECMWF is much less amplified with the system and has it riding the
periphery of the ridge across the Northern Tier and into the Upper
Midwest. The GFS solution would allow for better coverage of showers
and thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday, along with the potential
for strong to severe storms with increased shear across the region,
while the EC solution will lead to a more diurnally driven storm
regime. Either way, upper level ridging progged to build back over
the region into next weekend, with more isolated and diurnally
driven showers and storms expected. Again, temperatures look to be
around seasonal levels through the extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

KALS...VRB conditions through the next 24 hours with mid and high
level clouds passing over the terminal. Winds will generally be
around or less than 10 kts through the period.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through Monday afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Palmer Divide
by mid afternoon with southward develop through the late afternoon
and early evening, initially at KCOS and then KPUB. CIGS and VIS
will be reduced with any passing thunderstorms.  Mozley




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