Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200510
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. TRENDED THE FORECAST
WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HIGH-RES RUNS WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON OUR PIDDLY CONVECTION.

A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA JUNTA WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. BOTH
HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SHOWER ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY FROM
FREMONT COUNTY...SOUTHEAST TO NEAR TRINIDAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY SEEING WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY...FEEL THAT THESE MODELS LIKELY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PROVIDES UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS.

SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
PEAKS ABOVE 11 KFT MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE VERY HIGHEST OF MOUNTAIN PASSES.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. FOR THE MOST PART...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
A FEW QUICK BURSTS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER SMALL CELLS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MORE
ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHED FROM NEAR TRINIDAD...NORTHEAST
TO LAMAR.

THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE BURN SCAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN RATES WILL BE
LIGHT AND DO NOT APPEAR TO POSE A FLOODING RISK AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

...WARM SPRING STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FILL AND LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NM AND SRN CO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE VORT MAX ACROSS CEN NM AS IT
EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CO AND VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS STALL THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.   CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WITH
MARGINAL DEW POINTS (STILL IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S) CAPES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG. SO MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL PROVIDE THE GREATER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...AIDED BY NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER THE LAGGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS REALLY HURT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH...AND WE ARE MOSTLY SEEING ONLY SOME WEAK SHOWERS.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE BURN SCARS...AS LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND REALLY DECREASE RAINFALL
EFFICIENCIES.  STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WETS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS EVENING.
AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS REMAINING AOA 10KFT...WILL STILL BE
MONITORING THE BURN SCARS CLOSELY.

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE A
GOOD SHOT OF SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS
WELL...WITH FOCUS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SNOW LEVELS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL WAVER AROUND 10000 FEET THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...BOTH GFS
AND NAM SPREAD DEFORMATION BAND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PLAINS.  NAM12 REALLY
HITS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE HARD WITH A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...AROUND OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 10000 FEET.
TO SOME DEGREE...THIS IS LIKELY CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED AS NAM
KEEPS HITTING THE SOUTHERN SANGRES WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 09Z.  GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LIGHTER
WITH QPF.  STILL IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THE HIGHER AREAS
COULD PICK UP AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOWFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS COVERAGE OF THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS PRETTY LIMITED IN THE GRIDS...EVEN ACROSS JUST THE
HIGHER ZONES ABOVE 11KFT.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...BOTH GFS AND NAM12 HAVE A DEFORMATION BAND/
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY DOWNWARD FORCING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WHICH GENERATES ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DEW
POINTS STILL LOOK ON THE LOW SIDE...LIMITING INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN.
 SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER HIGH...AROUND/ABOVE 10KFT...SO LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN ON THE BURN SCARS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN...AND IF A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS REALIZED...THE UPDRAFT STRENGTHS COULD BE A
LITTLE GREATER THAN TODAY.  BUT CAPES LOOK LIMITED...WHICH KEEPS THE
THREAT FOR PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL RATES ON THE BURN SCARS ON THE LOW
SIZE. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDED ELEVATED POPS AT
TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING...GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT SATURDAY AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 00Z
MONDAY WILL SHIFT INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z TUESDAY.  IN ADDITION...NEXT
NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT MONDAY MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

THEN...OVERALL DRIER PATTERN IN CONTINUATION WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A ZONAL TO UPPER RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF EXPERIENCING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY MAY ALSO
NOTE AT LEAST LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

FINALLY...AS TOUCHED UPON PREVIOUSLY...MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH THE WARMEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
POSE LITTLE THREAT OR IMPACT TO ALL THREE TERMINAL SITES. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. INCREASED MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY. ALL THREE TERMINALS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES
DURING THE EVENING. ANY TERMINAL THAT HAS A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MOVE OVER HEAD WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VIS.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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