Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281251
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Have adjusted the ending time for the WSW for the San Juans. It
will now expire at 6 pm this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Currently...

Cold front at 3 am was located along the US50 corridor and then
extended northward towards COS. Regional radars along with sfc obs
was showing a large area of precip over the mountains and valleys.
Precip was trying to move onto the plains but with much drier air
just east of the mtns, it was having a difficult time progressing
east.

Temps over the plains were in the 20s and 30s north of the front,
with 40s south of the boundary.

Today...

Cold front will continue to move south but is expected to stall from
roughly Springfield to Walsenburg later today. Areas south of the
boundary  will likely see gusty west to southwest winds while areas
north of the boundary will see generally easterly flow. Marginal red
flag conditions will be possible along the CO/NM border.

As for precip, heaviest precip will occur this morning over the
higher terrain, with precip gradually decreasing this afternoon.
Another 3-6" of snow will be possible over the divide with 2 to 4
and the Sangres and the top of Pikes Peak. Some light accums,
1-2", will be possible in the valleys.

By later this morning into the afternoon, as cooler moister air
advects onto the plains, the chance of showers will increase,
especially across the lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Wet
snow and rain is expected, and some light snow accums may occur on
grassy areas. The remainder of the plains will likely remain dry.

Tonight...

Mid lvl trough axis will be along the I-25 corridor. Snow showers
will likely be ongoing across the central mtns, but most other
precip in the mtns will have diminished significantly. A few showers
will be possible over the plains, mainly north of US-50. Winds all
region will be transitioning to a northwesterly component by mid
evening with significantly drier air moving into the region by mid
to late evening.

Low temps tonight will be seasonable, with teens and L20s on the
plains and single digits and 10s in the valleys. Negative single
digits will prevail in the mtns.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

Only slight changes to the extended forecast based on the latest
solutions. Both the ECMWF and GFS trended north with the
disturbance expected Sunday into Monday.

Wednesday...an upper level disturbance will continue to move east
across the Missouri valley with broad northwest flow across
Colorado. Expect a few lingering snow showers over the Central
Mountains Wednesday morning, dissipating by the afternoon. The
rest of the area looks to remain dry with all precipitation well
east of the area Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be cool with
generally 40s across the Plains.

Thursday into Saturday...northwest flow aloft will give way to
zonal westerly by Saturday. This will bring warming temperatures
to Southern Colorado, with 50s on Thursday, rising into the lower
to mid 70s by Saturday. Increased mixing will likely bring
elevated fire weather concerns to the Eastern Plains by Saturday.

Sunday into Monday...both the ECMWF and GFS have trended north
with a passing disturbance. The ECMWF still keeps isolated showers
over the Central Mountains during this time frame, while the GFS
is now completely dry. Westerly flow aloft looks to maximize on
Sunday with critical fire weather parameters expected during the
afternoon. This will need to be monitored closely. Temperatures
will remain warm with lower to mid 70s across the Plains. A cold
front will back across the Eastern Plains by Monday with cooler
temperatures and reduced winds.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MST Tue Feb 28 2017

KALS...snow showers likely especially this morning with mvfr/ifr
conditions likely. Conditions are expected to improve by early
afternoon, with VFR continuing into the evening and nighttime
hours.

KPUB...VFR next 24h, Cant rule out a passing shower this
afternoon/early evening but any precip will be brief.

KCOS...predominantly VFR next 24h. There will be some passing
rain/snow showers this afternoon and evening as as a trough moves
by aloft. Any precip will be relatively brief but could produce
MVFR conditions for a short while. Sharply drier air will move
into the region by mid evening.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ066-068.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MST this evening for
COZ229-230-233-237.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ058-060-
061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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