Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY AN UPR RIDGE IS OVR UT AND WRN CO...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVR ERN
CO AND A WEAK UPR DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW OVR ERN CO AND
WRN KS.  THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION OVR THE HYR
TRRN AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THRU THIS EVENING...BUT THE
HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AS WELL.  HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW ECHOES DEVELOP OVR BACA AND
ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...SO WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT WL KEEP SILENT POPS OVR THE REST OF THE
SERN PLAINS.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PCPN CHANCES ACRS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
END BY MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVR THE NR
THE HYR TRRN.  HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW
ENSEMBLE SPREADS. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH RIDGING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...STRETCHING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH SITS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT
MODEL ANALYSIS BRINGS NEAR DAILY DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS DRIER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AND THE ECMWF IS COMPLETELY DRY THESE DAYS. FOR NOW
HAVE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ON AREA BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 80S AND 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A -TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...BUT PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF PRODUCT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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