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000
FXUS65 KPUB 091728
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonal temperatures with isolated showers over the
  mountains today.

- Possibility of high fire danger for Friday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates weak
flow aloft across the central Rockies, as a southern stream cutoff
low continues to dig into Old Mexico and more energy eastern Pacific
energy streams through stronger westerly flow aloft across the
Pacific Northwest at this time. Water vapor imagery also indicates
short wave energy rounding the base of the Old Mexico low helping
to fire showers and storms across southeast New Mexico and into the
western Texas as some high level moisture lifts into southern
Colorado at this time.

For today and tonight, latest model data continues to indicate the
Old Mexico low will translate north and east across southern New
Mexico, with flow aloft across the Central Rockies becoming more
northwest as shortwave energy within the northern stream continues
to translate across the Intermountain West and into the Northern
Rockies tonight.

For sensible weather, drier air within the developing northwest flow
will help clear skies across the region today, save for some bouts
of mid and high level moisture streaming across the southern tier of
Colorado throughout the day. With proximity to difluence associated
with the southern stream low and just enough instability, models
continue to indicate a few possible -shra/-tsra across the southern
mountains this afternoon, with clear to partly cloudy conditions
across the rest of south central and southeast Colorado. With only
slight warming aloft, should see highs at to slightly below seasonal
levels in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains, and mainly in
the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save for mainly 30s at
the peaks.

For tonight, models indicate a slight increase in mid level moisture
associated with the northern stream wave, and combined with the
northwest orographic flow, will lead to a few snow showers
developing across the Central mtns late tonight. This passing
northern stream wave also sends a weak front across eastern Colorado
early Wednesday morning, with its associated mixing keeping
overnight lows mild mainly in the 30s once again across the Plains,
with lows mainly in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper low to our south will be located over
TX Wed morning, while an upper shortwave crosses the Rockies. This
disturbance will help some isolated shower activity to develop over
the central mts and the Pikes Peak region through the afternoon. The
low to the south, and the disturbance to the north, will be quick
to eject to the east by Wed eve, and a ridge of high pressure
strengthening over the western US will then usher in dry conditions
Wed night and Thu. Plan on high temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s
for the high valleys, and upper 50s to upper 60s for the plains.

Friday through Sunday...Models are still in very good agreement on a
Pacific low pressure system meandering south along the West Coast
Fri and Sat, then very slowly pushing onshore across southern CA on
Sun. This pattern will mean a definite warm up for the forecast area
Fri through Sun, coupled with increasing southwest flow aloft across
the Four Corners and into CO. Given forecast minimum RH levels
hovering around 10 percent all three afternoons, high fire danger
continues to be the concern. One change from previous thinking
however is that a minor upper disturbance will jet across the state
ahead of the system, bringing some isolated convection to the higher
terrain late Fri afternoon and evening. Not a big thing at this
time, but it is a change from the previous dry solution. Look for
high temps all three days in the 60s to near 70F for the high
valleys, and the mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Monday...The beginning of the next work week brings some timing
questions into play with respect to where the upper low will be, and
what that means to southern CO. Models do agree on the upper low
being located over AZ Mon morning, then through the day quickly
ejecting to the east-northeast across the Four Corners, then across
CO through the evening. The operational GFS directs to the low
slightly further to the north which at first glance means more
impactful snow for the Continental Divide and the higher terrain of
northern CO. The EC is further south, which could mean more of an
effect across the eastern mts and perhaps I-25 Corridor. In
addition, given the trend of slow movement with this system, another
potential outcome would be slowing down even more and an additional
day of critical fire weather concerns. Stay tuned as the forecast
for Monday will likely change. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with diurnal wind pattern
expected through this evening. Cold front will push through
eastern Colorado early Wed morning, bringing north winds gusting
20-25kts to both KPUB and KCOS after 09z-10z and continuing for
much of the day.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN