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000
FXUS65 KPUB 180506
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1106 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this
  evening, and then return on Thursday across the San Luis
  Valley.

- Cooler and cloudier conditions on Thursday, with light snow
  possible across the peaks of the central mountains and Pikes
  Peak region, and drizzle or light rain across portions of the
  I-25 corridor.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible across the San Luis
  Valley and western portions of the CWA through the end of the week.

- Cooler and unsettled weather across for the weekend with
  warmer and drier weather early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly sunny skies, warmer temps, and a dry air mass are once
again supporting critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon. Winds have been slow to increase today, but still
think additional increases in wind speeds and gusts will occur
through the afternoon hours. No change with the current Red Flag
Warning in place including end time, with improvement likely
into the evening hours. Generally westerly flow in place will
support isolated to widely scattered shower development mainly
across the central mountains, but don`t anticipate much in terms
of accumulations.

Advertised cold front will quickly move south across the
eastern plains this evening into the overnight hours, likely
reaching the area by late this evening. Will see an abrupt wind
shift to the north, with increasing winds/guts into the
overnight hours. Don`t think wind gusts will be too high, and
will stay under High Wind Warning criteria, but should still see
gusts in the 40-50 mph range. Low stratus will then push south
across the plains through the early morning hours on Tuesday.
During this time, precip chances will stay confined to the peaks
of the central mountains and then the Pikes Peak region, but
still don`t anticipate much in terms of accumulations. As the
post frontal winds slacken and veer more southerly, will see low
level lift increase. With strengthening omega within this
saturated layer, should see at least drizzle development across
the Palmer Divide and El Paso county. Temperatures do cool
overnight and approach the freezing mark, but think there will
be enough cooling to support any freezing drizzle. Column cools
but with shallow moisture in place, think it will be hard for
any snow to development over the lower levels. Clouds will
likely stay in place for a good portion of the day, with much
cooler temps in the 40s and 50s expected on Thursday. Warmer and
drier air does remain situated across the San Luis Valley, with
another day of critical fire weather conditions expected on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Thursday night-Sunday night...Latest model data indicates
moderate westerly flow loft continuing across the Rockies into
the weekend, as embedded shortwave waves continue to translate
through the stronger westerly flow in place across the Northern
Tier. Data also indicates a secondary wave moving across the
West Coast on Friday, which then continues to translate across
the Southern Rockies Saturday and Sunday. The combined movement
of these systems continues to bring differences in location and
timing of fronts as well as differences in coverage and amounts
of precipitation across region through the weekend.

With a lower confidence in the precipitation forecast until the
finer details can be resolved, we have again stayed with NBM,
which has the best coverage of showers across the Pikes Peak
region Friday afternoon and evening, with the potential for
banded precipitation along and north of the Palmer Dvd Friday
night and Saturday morning, as a secondary frontal surge pushes
south across the Plains. Snow levels drop around 8000 ft Friday
night, with potential for seeing some light snow accumulations
in the Pikes Peak region. Easterly upslope flow behind this
secondary surge will keep cool and cloudy conditions across
southeast Colorado on Saturday, with the best coverage of
showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening across the
higher terrain, with added uvv from the embedded southern stream
wave. By Sunday, drier northwest flow aloft takes ahold, with
the potential for a few afternoon showers over the higher
terrain.

The westerly flow on Friday will keep critical fire weather
conditions in place across the higher mountain valleys,
especially across the San Luis Valley, and have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for the valley from noon to 7 pm. More spotty
critical fire weather conditions may be in place across the
valley on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday...Weak upper level ridging progged to build
across the Rockies into early next week, leading for a return of
at and above seasonal temperatures and the potential for a few
afternoon showers, mainly over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

KALS: VFR conditions expected through 24 hours. Breezy southwest
winds will continue this evening but will weaken overnight. Gusty
winds will pick back up tomorrow morning, lasting until after
sunset.

KCOS and KPUB: A front is currently pushing south across the area.
It has already shifted winds at KCOS and KPUB to the north. Gusty
north winds around 40 knots or so will continue for several hours.
Winds will back off slightly by around 15Z, and will turn northeast
and then east early in the morning hours. Starting around 18Z, winds
will begin to turn more southeasterly, and will remain as such until
the end of this 24-hour forecast period. Additionally, low stratus
clouds will begin to move in overnight, with ceilings being reduced
to MVFR within the next few hours. These will last through the end
of the period as well.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE